05/13/2015 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX 1m.. looks sweet for a break

[Cobra]

failed double bottom, we may have H&S Top here. need breakdown to confirm of course.

[uempel]

As I mentioned 2 hours ago, most likely the market will close at 2098/99. Why? Algos like the dashed red horizontals, and the one close by is at that level. And something else: opex Friday might steer the market to the 2100 level too.

[BullBear52x]

This is the most exciting 5 handles. RED day please.

[jway888]

failed double bottom, we may have H&S Top here. need breakdown to confirm of course.

seriously, King Cobra, did you just mention H&S top that according to your own statistic doesn't work in this bull market?



please, that help my SPY puts alot.....am I dreaming?

[Tutti]

If you a have a huge portfolio and need to sell it, you better wait till everybody is willing to buy. An scenario with no reason to go down is a good place to start.

If I understand what it is you are saying, what if you are in very large highly liquid names? What if a specific portfolio is long only? What if a specific portfolio is benchmarked against an index? What if you have a 10 year time horizon? What if that huge portfolio is well diversified and draw downs are well tolerated and used to as buying opportunities?

If you manage money, you are constantly trimming and adding, but if you get too defensive too soon and the pack leaves you behind for a month or god forbid a quarter you are out of a job. Also, try reasoning with a pension consultant that you became more defensive as a, "...scenario with no reason to go down is a good place to start," as the reason for your defensive posture & underperformance. You just cost his clients some measure of performance (and made him look like an idiot) and you will find yourself with a nice email telling you to segregate the clients funds, stop trading and wait for instructions as to where the clients funds should be sent.

large players move for a variety of reasons, not just the ones that motivate you.

[BullBear52x]

one penny red today will mean so much for da bear.

[quientuves]

Thanks, Tutti. That's interesting, but couldn't it be said or looked in the other way? I mean, you keep your position, the market plummets, and...

I know risk and money managing, but are they efficient enought??

[Out of Bounds]

SPY 210

[uempel]

Why should the market plummet? As long as the data is bad and the bonds are at rock bottom - I don't see the trigger at the moment Things might look different in a few weeks, but on May 13th things look ok

[fehro]

SPY 210

LOL!!!! anyhow USOIL . near a flag break.. I know.. sound like a broken record on the oil pullback

[uempel]

And by the way, SPX is now at that level where it should close

[Cobra]

failed double bottom, we may have H&S Top here. need breakdown to confirm of course.

seriously, King Cobra, did you just mention H&S top that according to your own statistic doesn't work in this bull market?



please, that help my SPY puts alot.....am I dreaming?

yeah, I have doubt about H&S Top which usually turns out to be bull flag.

[BullBear52x]

SPY 210

LOL!!!! anyhow USOIL . near a flag break.. I know.. sound like a broken record on the oil pullback

It is what it is on USO, sell first ask question later

As long as histogram stays negative me no bulls.

[fehro]

ah well.. my USO P sell order didn't get filled in that spike.. would of been a nice +3500% profit..

[Tutti]

Thanks, Tutti. That's interesting, but couldn't it be said or looked in the other way? I mean, you keep your position, the market plummets, and...

I know risk and money managing, but are they efficient enought??

That's only if you view a drawdown as a negative. Lots of players dollar cost average and they like adding or initiating at lower prices. Value players haven't had their kind of market in a long time (sans energy) with very few real bargains out there. Lots of players can't simply sell or get defensive as they are tied to a set of rules as to how they will manage money. Some players mimic an index so even though they are down in absolute terms, relative to the index they mimic or benchmark they might be flat.

Also, even if you are smaller long/short fund and have full discretion - if you do something too early and it plays out wrong you are going to get fired. If your logic isn't sound ("you sold bc the market was at all time highs!?!") enough for your client, expect to be managing less money fairly soon. Very few John Paulsons in that world who can go on for a couple of years in the wrong direction before their trade thesis pans out.

It's a big market out there and we all see it a bit differently.

[BullBear52x]

Keep it simple, sideways intraday now so sell the next sell with a hope of new LOD, watch TSI at 20.

[flrtrader]

ah well.. my USO P sell order didn't get filled in that spike.. would of been a nice +3500% profit..

Fehro,

What contracts would you have gotten? I'm looking for a vehicle... Please?

[BullBear52x]

Sell triggered sooner than I thought, well, I am looking for new LOD from here.

[Out of Bounds]

Three shoulders on each side now.