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fehro wrote:
If the set-up is right.. and only right.. near mid-week of a possible larger trend change .. as I've been looking at OIL as of last week's candle... enter/watch the weeklies near mid week/Wed/Thursday, small positions with huge upside.. if it works.. if not.. you lose 100% .. USO 150515 P 20.5 in a tad early yesterday... "shoulda" of waited till today.. but the H&S yesterday seemed legit.. The volatility is huge, as market makers.. try to close the weekly candles bearish/bullish to confirm trend changes.. with allowing the least amount of people in or out... so the moves are vicious usually Fridays, Thursdays. The set-up has to be key... and it can be low risk-(only if the positions are small)/very high reward.. and a sideways move = loss
Another example.. was bullish on GOLD more so as per the weekend comment that we sitting here a tad too long GOLD wise. ... viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1664&start=20#p191468.. and the dollar has been moving down.. there seems to be bit of a lag.. as traders / market makers move what they want each day.. some days it's the SPY, some days the RUT, some days it's the dollar... yet gold doesn't move.. or OIL/GOLD the same... then a few days later a bigger move happens.. all fwiw... anyhow.. entered GLD Calls.. Friday, and added yesterday.. AND it doesn't ALWAYS work.. of course.. when it doesn't it goes to 0.00 = 100% LOSS.
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Last edited by fehro on Wed May 13, 2015 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow has been just a little bit bull friendly, up 4 of the last 6. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
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SHAK reports after the bell. I have to think they have priced in every penny of earnings for the next 1100 years. If they are 1 french fry shy of estimated revs...
This market has me clueless, except to say anecdotally that May Opex, when it comes early in the month because of a Friday the first, can tend to be spiky intraday because of seasonal crosscurrents.
fehro wrote:ah well.. my USO P sell order didn't get filled in that spike.. would of been a nice +3500% profit..
Fehro,
What contracts would you have gotten? I'm looking for a vehicle... Please?
If the set-up is right.. and only right.. near mid-week of a possible larger trend change .. as I've been looking at OIL as of last week's candle... enter/watch the weeklies near mid week/Wed/Thursday, small positions with huge upside.. if it works.. if not.. you lose 100% .. USO 150515 P 20.5 in a tad early yesterday... "shoulda" of waited till today.. but the H&S yesterday seemed legit.. The volatility is huge, as market makers.. try to close the weekly candles bearish/bullish to confirm trend changes.. with allowing the least amount of people in or out... so the moves are vicious usually Fridays, Thursdays. The set-up has to be key... and it can be low risk-(only if the positions are small)/very high reward.. and a sideways move = loss
Thanks,
I too have been eyeing oil... I am very familiar with the weeklies as I trade spy/iwm weeklies and yes they are a wild ride if you can catch the move seconds before it happens. Thanks very much for your reply as well. Do you have a blog, a FB page or group there your part of so I might watch, learn and share thoughts?
fehro wrote:ah well.. my USO P sell order didn't get filled in that spike.. would of been a nice +3500% profit..
Fehro,
What contracts would you have gotten? I'm looking for a vehicle... Please?
If the set-up is right.. and only right.. near mid-week of a possible larger trend change .. as I've been looking at OIL as of last week's candle... enter/watch the weeklies near mid week/Wed/Thursday, small positions with huge upside.. if it works.. if not.. you lose 100% .. USO 150515 P 20.5 in a tad early yesterday... "shoulda" of waited till today.. but the H&S yesterday seemed legit.. The volatility is huge, as market makers.. try to close the weekly candles bearish/bullish to confirm trend changes.. with allowing the least amount of people in or out... so the moves are vicious usually Fridays, Thursdays. The set-up has to be key... and it can be low risk-(only if the positions are small)/very high reward.. and a sideways move = loss
Thanks,
I too have been eyeing oil... I am very familiar with the weeklies as I trade spy/iwm weeklies and yes they are a wild ride if you can catch the move seconds before it happens. Thanks very much for your reply as well. Do you have a blog, a FB page or group there your part of so I might watch, learn and share thoughts?
Yes those weeklies can be wild rides.. especially on the SPY.. which work well too.. especially nice for the daytrades!! No blog, FB, just here.... I thought of a blog.. but too much work, doing my own daily trading journal/chart update at end of day is enough! And.. I like it here! As long as Cobra & everyone can put up with my bad grammar, and my daily dribbles!