05/29/2015 Live Update

[Trades with cats]

I think the TF small caps look like a 123 push up. Not ready to short without a few more bars but it does look like buying is drying up, just no selling yet.

[Unique]

ES bears looking for full retrace.
Daily is Bear,Bull,Held hold of prev Bull, Bear candles.
If today full bear candle close, should be fun next week as immediate downside potential levels open up.
this 2096 vs 2124.25 range is getting boring.

ES at 78.6% retracement, first try stick save 5m. See if there's hourly bull bar next

Yup, another sticksave by the bulls, pretty good trending market.
Hourly sticksave at 78% fib retracement indeed, rebound is too large now that intraday bears are lost.
That was probably the easiest double bottom formation for bulls this week.
Tight range rest of day? Monthly and weekly bulls would want to end today as high as possible that would bode well for next week.

Would be kinda surprising if bears able to full retrace into the close. Hard to be a bear on 2nd leg formations, probabilities are too low...

[BullBear52x]

I think the TF small caps look like a 123 push up. Not ready to short without a few more bars but it does look like buying is drying up, just no selling yet.

for quicky, it's ripe with stop at 1252.5 forget what I use here, but it is a go on my screen.

[Unique]

CL Update: Decent month for CL bulls

Hourly: Decent 2nd leg up today from the hourly May 28 Extreme Oversold Signal, rsi was <20
Now, it is in Extreme Overbought signal region

Daily: Merely just backtesting the resistance trendline
Decent bullish pennant pattern

Weekly: Might end as gravestone doji/bull hammer as the close sets in
Still waiting for ignition bar to break above this range and test the waters at 62-65, and major res 68

Monthly: Decent consolidation bar this month after the April huge full bull bar.
First try rejected at 8ema res, bodes well for next month to retry highs and see if BO or not

[uempel]

Most likely DAX will show a bounce at 11300/11400. But the 10000 area looks like a better low for a sustained rally.

DAX daily, today's close was 11413

[fehro]

SPX nearing triangle upper resistance.. VIX support..

[Al_Dente]

See XLV attempt a breakout.
If it breaks out, it will attract buyers when it appears on all the “breakout” scans (depending on whether the scans are set for intraday or closing-high breakouts).
XLV has been the best performing sector year-to-date (and also for the past 5 years), so it has earned respect by proving “the strong get stronger” dictum.
I’m a bit concerned with the lower panels, which show much more participation (% of stocks >20ma and >50ma) and more new highs during previous runs. These will need to improve.
If it proves to be a double/triple top, the trapped longs will bail out quickly.
Note: XLV likes to trap, so I want to see price hold and successfully back-test a breakout, before confidently drawing an up target.

Sectors YTD %

[Daniel]

SMH, IBB tag fresh HODs!

Impeccable bullishness.

[fehro]

SPX weekly ... still need buckets of paint to paint that pretty .. lower high lower lows.. fwiw

[Al_Dente]

PAGING BullBear52x:
Boss: This here “trophy” will cost you only $100m
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property ... hcl8r.html

[Daniel]

What's gotten into USO today, +4.5%? Favorable rig count or something?

[Al_Dente]

[add on to XLV post]
plus CURE is much more attractive (XLV x 3) since it split last week

[Daniel]

Cautionary note here for intraday bulls, Naz advancers have not surpassed prior HOD for quite a while... and may even be falling away from the day's highest level.

[Trades with cats]

Oil fundamentals deteriorating at an increasing rate. Not arguing with the charts, just saying the buying strength is all on spec, not demand based. VLCC charter rates really high, ships are making $85,000 a day when this winter it was $45,000. Iraq is really upping production to pay for the war, introduced a new heavy crude blend. Saudis are pumping close to record level, US is at record level, Russia close to record output and US economy (along with China) contracting. Auction fever won't last long term is all I am saying.

[Cobra]

3 push up but my guess is another push up then might be some pullbacks.

[Tutti]

Oil fundamentals deteriorating at an increasing rate. Not arguing with the charts, just saying the buying strength is all on spec, not demand based. VLCC charter rates really high, ships are making $85,000 a day when this winter it was $45,000. Iraq is really upping production to pay for the war, introduced a new heavy crude blend. Saudis are pumping close to record level, US is at record level, Russia close to record output and US economy (along with China) contracting. Auction fever won't last long term is all I am saying.

Really appreciate your thoughts on the fundamentals behind oil - than you.

[Cobra]

members only update at 1:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/05 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

TF just not seeing any selling. Larry Williams %R bouncing around but mostly in the neutral zone. Joe Granville's On Balance Volume refusing to drop. It is like trying to short "The Terminator", it just won't die.

[Cobra]

mini pullback target, exceeds it then 2 legged pullback after 4 push up has good chances, otherwise it's just a guess.

[Al_Dente]

Oil is moving inverse to the USdollar, as per usual
60 min