06/06/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows clearly more distribution despite we're not down much, so be careful here.

[Cobra]

Smart money bought more this week, I don't know how to read this, maybe nothing, or maybe they're finally in short position now?


Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks. not a bad week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1685&p=193291#p193291

[Cobra]

the weekly stock picks are for everyone:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1693&p=193293#p193293

[jway888]

seems like rotation from bonds to equities undergoing.....brewing to spike and murder all bears with no mercy

[Al_Dente]

momentum hasn’t started lifting yet, except in IWM and XLF (green circles)

[Royal Flush]

A BB Keltner Squeeze is on the 30 min ES (magenta dots on CCI). Just as it did on Wed at 23:30 est. below Supply (red), I expect that a long will be setup Sunday eve above Demand (chartreuse) but cannot commit until it happens.

[pezhead9000]

Econ Summary:

The big story this week is the further deterioration of interest rates .

Among long leading indicators, interest rates for treasuries and mortgage rates joined corporate bonds as neutral, while mortgage applications remained positive, although refinancing turned engative and approached their multi-year bottom.. Money supply and real estate loans were positive.

The short leading indicators remain extremely mixed. The recent upward spike in interest rates with widening spreads, a classic short leading indicator for recession, increased slightly this week. Meanwhile initial jobless claims remain very positive. Temporary staffing was slightly negative for the third week in a row. While oil and gas prices have risen, both remain positives, as is gas usage. Industrial metal prices turned more negative.

All but two of the coincident indicators were again negative. The positives were tax withholding and container shipping. Steel production and rail transport are still very negative, although intermodal traffic remained a positive. The Baltic Dry Index is a slight negative. The disturbing uptrend in the TED spread and LIBOR is intact. Johnson Redbook consumer spending is still in the low end of YoY comparisons, while Gallup's negative reading was the worst this year against extremely challenging comparisons with last May.

The US economy remains in a shallow industrial recession, driven by the overly strong US$, which in turn has been driven by this bout of Eurocrisis, plus the contrast between the Fed's steady drumbeat about raising rates in contrast with ECB easing. This is augmented by relatively poor consumer spending, probably driven by a steep downturn in the Oil patch outweighing improvement elsewhere. The remainder of the economy, as shown by housing, auto sales, and initial jobless claims, remains positive. Thus I remain positive on the economy for the rest of the year.

http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market- ... er-edition

[fehro]

Weekly/Daily Candles..on key support in some cases.

[fehro]

Industry % weekly... Heavier vol SPY on Fri.. 4 out of 5 indexes curving down, sectors weakening

[fehro]

T2 -- Put/Call drops back down .. interestingly.. *other indicators still rolling over.. http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
*also updated chart to show Oct lows

[fehro]

Yield *5yr + 18.54% for the week!

[fehro]

SPX weekly, did we break long term up trend again?... sitting on the edge of a cliff... looks ripe for a gap down and go... fwiw.

[Al_Dente]

We’re in a down leg in an uptrend channel (green channel lines)
Although the bears seem lazy because they’ve been meandering around and picking daisies instead of slashing and burning as they usually do, note that bears have already retraced 61.8% of the May rally
Arguably, this is the second push down (a sloppy a,b,c). Bears want a third push down to at least 208.20ish where there is strong channel support.
This could happen even if they meander-bounce up to about 211 which is mid-channel resistance (bounded by the faded red-channel lines)
I’m assuming the down leg will continue until it completes its dirty work, knowing that a reversal will produce a tantrum of bear covering that will accelerate just above the 211 area.

TRIPLE CROWN
Vote Cobra

[Al_Dente]

Note that the only McClellan Oscillators in the green are NYMO and the McClellan on small caps (and that one’s on SML, the 600 small caps;
we don’t have a McClellan for IWM/RUT)
Both are weak but at least they’re green……..

[fehro]

Interest RATES vs SPX vs GOLD vs OIL vs USD.. pink boxes areas of a rate increase .. pink arrows.. "areas" of a pullback near interest rate changes. fwiw.

[fehro]

....One observation on the chart above is that breadth has been week as SPY has stayed near its ATH. Two instances were similar: December 2013 and September 2014. The first instance bounced but the second did not; regardless, the durable low was lower both times. That seems likely now as well: the washout low is probably still ahead. ....

http://fat-pitch.blogspot.ca/2015/06/we ... mmary.html

[fehro]

not sure if I trust that channel much... as there's a lack of data prior to 1980's.. and a small tweak up or down = 100s of points... but if you are an uber bull.. there you go!

[edwindes]

Note that the only McClellan Oscillators in the green are NYMO and the McClellan on small caps (and that one’s on SML, the 600 small caps;
we don’t have a McClellan for IWM/RUT)
Both are weak but at least they’re green……..

66nymo.png

Hey Al,
Here's a link to McCellan for IWM
http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf ... _decline_d

[Al_Dente]

Hey Al,
Here's a link to McCellan for IWM
http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf ... _decline_d

Thanks ed
The IWM summation stinks but it’s a bit longer term….. hmmm…

That’s an awesome site and I appreciate the link

May I ask you a question?
My McClellan charts show that NAMO (the broad nasdaq McClellan Oscillator) is green while the McClellan for the NDX (QQQ 100 stocks) is still deep red.
In trying to double check that on your site, I pulled up the McClellan for QQQ (red), but I don’t know what symbol they are using for the COMPQ full nasdaq. Do you?

All worthy of note, as iwm and/or qqq have been the habitual bear slayers….
Best 2 u