10/06/2015 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Short interest on the SPX stocks is, cough, a bit high
It is now at the highest levels that we have seen since the financial crisis. Rather, it is the TREND in short interest's direction that should concern the bulls the most. Should this trend persist, the shorts will press their bets on rallies, therefore capping advances. But the absolute level of short interest should also alarm the bears…
So…turn to the behavior of options speculators for daily clues on sentiment shifts. … equity option buyers are also at a multi-year pessimistic extreme. The build-up in pessimism among equity option speculators is confirmed by higher lows in the put/call volume ratio and higher highs. So…

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/conte ... ampaign=OV

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/10 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Wednesday tomorrow has been bull friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Sleeperz]

There is also talk between the Russians and Saudi Arabia on oil, Plus the takeover of Canadian Oil Sands by Suncor has lit the sector on fire since monday. USO already up since last Friday on low rig counts. US dollar also falling, adding more fuel. The shorts are getting squeezed with stocks already up over 25%, how long can it go on.??

Noticed FM,T First Quantum up over 50% in the last 3 days. $4.89 to $7.49
Sept was end of quarter for funds who sold the losers down hard, now being bought back and squeezed.

On oil the media narrative is that all the shale drillers will go broke. The vulture funds are still circling but they haven't gotten any deals yet. The public, which has to include hedge funds, keeps knife catching which has allowed the drillers to buy one more drink on someone else's money. Supposedly the junk bond market is closing to these firms, but Umpel's comment about money men today talking up oil implies they are hoping for one more round of fees. After all with three month Treasuries at 0 maybe potential yield is more important than return of capital.

This week the printed rumor is concerns that Russian aircraft will cause an issue in the middle east.

Realistically how long can a surge in prices last as the refineries shut down to switch to winter blend. And there is only one winter blend so we become a single market for the worlds surplus gasoline.

With all the negatives and the price so low it is the perfect set up for a short covering rally and if you can play them there will be plenty of opportunities this winter. Just remember that longer term $60 is the claimed price where the shale drillers will turn up new production.

[MrMiyagi]

Chinese markets were closed yesterday and today, national holiday, we'll see how commodities hold up tomorrow.

[Trades with cats]

Pasta Boss, when do we switch to bear market rules? Sounds like it could be getting close. Waiting for Cobra to start saying double bottom never works anymore!

[Al_Dente]

Pasta Boss, when do we switch to bear market rules? Sounds like it could be getting close. Waiting for Cobra to start saying double bottom never works anymore!

What a lackluster day
Bulls have been led by energy (lime) the last few days
As energy is only 7% of SPY, that just is not enough

The bears need to break that island gap (pink) at roughly 195-196, but today the bears had no balls.
Above that island gap = bull
Fill/bust that island gap = bear

[BullBear52x]

Pasta Boss, when do we switch to bear market rules? Sounds like it could be getting close. Waiting for Cobra to start saying double bottom never works anymore!

Doc Al will never see bear market, bulls rules only

[BullBear52x]

These are not good looking chart long term, but, this is more of a reason why interest rate should stay lower, maybe a good reason to have QE4?

Here is the QE world chart from stockcharts.com Free commentary.

[Al_Dente]

Pasta Boss, when do we switch to bear market rules? Sounds like it could be getting close. Waiting for Cobra to start saying double bottom never works anymore!

Doc Al will never see bear market, bulls rules only