10/12/2015 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Anyone else see this?

What would be the next step?

It broke down, could have gone either way

[fehro]

SPX still struggles... VIX perking up... AAPL another new LOD... SPX red VIX red

[fehro]

USO nearing 20d retest at 15.01.. hence the pressure on the indexes.. energy profit taking?

[MrMiyagi]

WE'RE GOING SIDEWAYS FOR A WEEK!!!!

[Al_Dente]

10/9 Friday:
ES Non-commercials are not buying the rally [COT]. They added to net shorts, which are now the highest since December 2011.
Through Wednesday, domestic equity funds reported net outflows of $3.7 billion [Lipper].
NYSE short interest is at record levels [massive short interest has been known to produce massive short squeezes].
The real surprise is a huge $53 billion inflow into Money-markets (largest in 2 years) [BACml]
“…rising cash levels indicate big risk rally …driven primarily by short-covering rather than fresh risk-on." [BACml]

Be on the ALERT for short covering, especially at breakouts........ [Pasta]

[Out of Bounds]

10/9 Friday:
ES Non-commercials are not buying the rally [COT]. They added to net shorts, which are now the highest since December 2011.
Through Wednesday, domestic equity funds reported net outflows of $3.7 billion [Lipper].
NYSE short interest is at record levels [massive short interest has been known to produce massive short squeezes].
The real surprise is a huge $53 billion inflow into Money-markets (largest in 2 years) [BACml]
“…rising cash levels indicate big risk rally …driven primarily by short-covering rather than fresh risk-on." [BACml]

Be on the ALERT for short covering, especially at breakouts........ [Pasta]

Pasta loves a good squeeze

[Al_Dente]

Pasta loves a good squeeze

ELSEWHERE:
Advancing stocks are 0.95 x declining stocks
Advancing volume is 0.50 x declining volume
Declining stocks are 1.05 x advancing stocks
Declining volume is 2 x advancing volume

Pretty boring….. the only standout is DOWN VOLUME, which means plenty of selling volume in few stocks

Let’s look at TICK, using 500/-500 on the raw 5min TICK.
Assume anything in-between +500 and -500 is noise (the grey lines)
Looking for tick moves ABOVE the green line (> +500 = up bias) or BELOW the red line (< -500 = down bias) for direction
This morning I see “positive” ticks (eg: above +500), and the rest is noise in the gray zone... so far...

[Out of Bounds]

Pasta loves a good squeeze

plenty of selling volume in few stocks

1012tick five.png.png

If AAPL wakes up,could mean a good push.

[Al_Dente]

These are ALL JUICED SHORTS on the 5min
The only standout short I see here today is short oil (SCO), which is trying to breakout of a double/triple top

[Al_Dente]

We really need a fresh high today, otherwise we are faulked
$201.91 would do the trick

Earnings: Johnson & Johnson reports pre-open tomorrow, Tuesday
CSX, INTC, and JPM report after tomorrow’s close.

[fehro]

SPX still struggling weakish.. .. possible orange ascending triangle.. VIX still didn't under cut FOMC spike and a tag better support.. kinda double bottom on VIX.. don't love it.. prefer an undercut.. SPX breaks red uptrend.. then could get ugly

[silicon_beaver]

If $VIX in red N days, SPX tomorrow chance of green:red =

Consecutive Days Times Next_Day_Up Down Even
N=1 1524 815 708 1
N=2 809 464 344 1
N=3 429 212 217
N=4 203 104 98
N=5 83 49 34
N=6 42 25 17
N=7 22 9 13
N=8 9 5 4
N=9 5 1 4
N=10 2 1 1
N=11
N=12

When N=10, next day SPX up:down = 1:1. Not many odds, just two events historically. N never greater than 10.

[BullBear52x]

[fehro]

volume coming in to SPY.. . big question is it buying or selling...

[BullBear52x]

First attempt on breakout failed, let see if it can today.

[Cobra]

not sure if we have Fib 61.8% mm here.

[Al_Dente]

Hourly volatility is still green-bull-spy
SPY “Ascending Broadening Wedge” (like a megaphone tilted up).
http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

[BullBear52x]

Here is my fundamental, if no new injection, there will be no new high, the rainbows people already talk negative rate is coming.

[Al_Dente]

Back to the sector LONGS, 5min
Guess who else brokeout above that 17 Sept high (pink) today
Yeah baby

[BullBear52x]

Soon it will be hard to talk deflation when the dollar moving lower.