10/17/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows far more accumulation than distribution. Both accumulation and distribution are down implying now we're in trending phase. When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase and when accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase. So apparently bulls are not there yet.

[Cobra]

Smart money no big selling so it's not case 1.) yet, therefore bulls should be OK.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[traderjo]

Hi Cobra,

Do you have access to 2008 data for the Institutional A/D and Smart Money Shorting? There is a lot of talk about how we may be setting up for a 2008-like period of retesting the lows soon. Would like to see if we can compare then and now.

Thanks in advance.

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra,

Do you have access to 2008 data for the Institutional A/D and Smart Money Shorting? There is a lot of talk about how we may be setting up for a 2008-like period of retesting the lows soon. Would like to see if we can compare then and now.

Thanks in advance.

[Junior Buffett]

I read somewhere that Apple sued for 800 million by some Indian techies and Infians won the verdict...can anyone confirm? If its true then why we not seeing as a headline? If this turn out to be true then this can kill the stock

[traderjo]

Hi Cobra,

Do you have access to 2008 data for the Institutional A/D and Smart Money Shorting? There is a lot of talk about how we may be setting up for a 2008-like period of retesting the lows soon. Would like to see if we can compare then and now.

Thanks in advance.

Thank you, Cobra!

[josephli]

Smart money no big selling so it's not case 1.) yet, therefore bulls should be OK.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Cobra, from the two charts you posted, so if both distribution and accumulation are down then it is also possible for a range market?

[fehro]

Weekly / Daily Candles - curiously TLT was green for the week.

[fehro]

Industry % Weekly - SPY volume also curiously low for and OEW day *Updated chart - some data was delay

[fehro]

T2 Indicators http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Skew still elevated. Still 70% of stocks are under 200d

[fehro]

2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels <200d Weekly <40d Daily.

[fehro]

Yields

[tsf]

Perhaps you were referring to this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wisconsin ... 50578.html
Fri, Oct 16, 2015, 8:31 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Wisconsin jury says Apple owes UW research foundation $234 million in patent dispute

MADISON, Wis. (AP) -- A jury awarded the Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation more than $234 million Friday in a patent infringement lawsuit against computer maker Apple Inc.

The jury set the amount after about three hours of deliberations. It was about $165 million less than the foundation had sought, but its legal team was all smiles and handshakes after the verdict was read, the Wisconsin State Journal reported (http://bit.ly/1MuCa4t ). The same jury found Tuesday that Apple infringed on the patent, triggering the damages phase of the trial.

The patent dispute involved chip technology co-invented by University of Wisconsin-Madison computer sciences professor Gurindar Sohi, who was in the courtroom for the decision. The technology improves the speed and efficiency of processors that run popular Apple mobile devices such as iPhones and iPads, extending battery life by as much as two hours.

"For Dr. Sohi, I hope you felt that your invention was vindicated," U.S. District Judge William Conley said.

Apple spokeswoman Rachel Tulley said only that the company plans to appeal. Apple's attorneys declined to comment.

Foundation attorney Morgan Chu asked the jury for a royalty of $2.74 per unit, while Apple attorney William Lee said the patent infringement was worth a royalty of only 7 cents per unit. The number of units involved was closely guarded information, shown only to the lawyers and the jury, not to the public.


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/re ... witterfeed

University cannot get triple damages in patent fight with Apple

NEW YORK | By Andrew Chung
Fri Oct 16, 2015 11:38am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/ ... ce=twitter

The University of Wisconsin-Madison's patent licensing body will not be able to extract triple damages from Apple as a jury weighs how much the iPhone maker must pay for using its microchip technology without permission, a U.S. judge ruled on Thursday.

On Tuesday, a federal jury in Madison, Wisconsin said Apple Inc (AAPL.O) infringed a Wisconsin Alumni Research Foundation (WARF) patent which helps improve the performance of computer processors. The foundation is claiming approximately $400 million in damages.

It is a welcome development for Apple, which no longer risks having the damage award increased by up to three times, which is allowed in federal law for recklessly infringing a patent.

I read somewhere that Apple sued for 800 million by some Indian techies and Infians won the verdict...can anyone confirm? If its true then why we not seeing as a headline? If this turn out to be true then this can kill the stock

[Cobra]

Smart money no big selling so it's not case 1.) yet, therefore bulls should be OK.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Cobra, from the two charts you posted, so if both distribution and accumulation are down then it is also possible for a range market?

Range market should be acc and dist keep crossing each other within a short time.

[josephli]

Smart money no big selling so it's not case 1.) yet, therefore bulls should be OK.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Cobra, from the two charts you posted, so if both distribution and accumulation are down then it is also possible for a range market?

Range market should be acc and dist keep crossing each other within a short time.

Thanks Cobra. I asked because in your second post for 2008 scenario, the region that you labelled as range market has both dis and acc declining. Maybe there was many crossover, but chart was not clear on that.

Meanwhile, I found it quite counter-intuitive that in first institution buying and selling chart, from August low to Sep high the institute selling has more selling than buying all along (though the difference is shrinking). So the retail investors moving the market???

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM:
SPX and SPY popped above the mid September high.
Equal weighted SPX (middle panel) did not yet.
Hence, as the bottom panel illustrates, this is still a narrow based rally. (If the broader-based SPY 500 were stronger, the ratio would be moving up.
Right now the narrow-based OEX 100 is stronger, and the ratio is down).
Long-term bulls will be happier when that ratio moves back up.

Open up that chart, change it to weekly, change the ma.
It’s pretty clear that the bull thrives when that ratio is up (with more broad-based participation).

The “Percent of SPX stocks above 200ma” is another measure of long-term participation.
Bulls want to see that clear 50, which is generally the dividing line between long-term bull (above) and bear (below).
[On a side note, SPY is still a bit below her 200ma]

[Al_Dente]

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM:
DAILY CHART: Something to consider
As Earnings come in lower as expected (middle panel), and SPY price moves higher, that forces the Price/Earnings ratio higher (bottom panel).
SPX P/E >21 is a bit too high.
I question how long SPY can continue up on declining earnings and rising P/E.
At a certain point they should re-align, which is why I think this earnings season is critical.

[GAAP = “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles”]
[Regarding the P/E Ratio: stockcharts says they update this on a daily basis after the close. They add up all the closing prices for each stock in the SPX and then divide that total by the total trailing-12-month earnings value for each of those stocks.]

[edit to explain: “trailing” earnings is good, that’s the real reported earnings over the past 12 months. Some gurus use “forward” earnings (projected earnings for the next 12 months) which is fantasy with unicorns.]

[DellGriffith]

This might be a bit off topic but:

Q. How do Millennials invest?

A. They robo-invest into ETFs.

Here is an interesting article looking at emerging trends of Millennial investing.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/adam-hanf ... 08412.html

1. They don't trust human financial consultants because of 2008.
2. They have grown to trust automated consultants for everything from buying plane tickets to getting a taxi.
3. Now several professional websites are popping up that give automated investment advice to Millennials (based on age, income, risk tolerance, etc. that is entered by the user). These usually point them towards ETFs. The growth of these websites has been very strong (WealthFront, Betterment, and LoanVest are 3 that are mentioned).

[Al_Dente]

More splainin’ if you need it:
Consensus estimates on earnings have been lowered pretty much across the board (there are many exceptions).
That means the “bar” has been set lower, and beating the consensus becomes a bit easier.
You can only applaud earnings that “beat the estimates,” and ignore the actual lower earnings for so long, until reality kicks in…
How long is that, and when does reality kick in, I don’t know, but my marker is “”SPX P/E >21 is a bit too high””.
I’m not talking about a crash, I’m just looking for an inevitable (?) re-alignment of the forces.
Anyway, our trusted sources for earnings chatter are FactSet and also Brian Gilmartin. APPRECIATE IT if you would post links as you see them.