10/23/2015 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Fib-wise interesting to see where the indexes are stoping. ~ 78.6% retracement seems to be working as resistance (except for rut which is stuck well below ~ that 38.2 level). still don't see real breadth sector wise and a snooze fest internally @ 1.5U/D and +2A/D

The attachment HourlyResistance_23OCT15.jpg is no longer available

The Russell has gone a bit crazy today

[fehro]

Small cap futures (TF) stalled out at Wednesday's high. Nothing good for small business in the news. And really, when has a rising dollar helped the S&P recently? But when have fundamentals had any meaning in this market?

Oh well, fundamentals will rule sooner or later.

CAT, IBM, WMT, old economic drivers.. GOOGL add clicks, and FB likes! .. drives the economy.. just imagine the job growth!

[josephli]

key time here.

[Junior Buffett]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

[Tutti]

Fib-wise interesting to see where the indexes are stoping. ~ 78.6% retracement seems to be working as resistance (except for rut which is stuck well below ~ that 38.2 level). still don't see real breadth sector wise and a snooze fest internally @ 1.5U/D and +2A/D

HourlyResistance_23OCT15.jpg

The Russell has gone a bit crazy today

russell ain't the only one

[Unique]

Copy and pasting from what I wrote in another forum

When day session opens, if ES gets an hourly close above 2070 - this massive feedback loop of trapped shorts should squeeze to the 2089.5 immediate target fairly quickly.
That is also just a hair below the daily Bollinger Band. All eyes on first 30minute!

---
Food for thought and staying objective:

ES near daily BB, NQ at daily BB. The ECB stat of avg down 50 is still lingering. FOMC announcement next week Wednesday. This means that if you have not bought this dip from the 1861 vs 1861.5 hourly double bottom from 20 sessions ago. You don't chase up here for swing, you wait for an optimal entry!

---
ES: 1HR 8EMA = 2063.5, 1HR 20EMA = 2055.5.

These are the hourly BULL TRAIN re-entry points for day trading purposes. If they don't sticksave like they have in the past few sessions, then you know what's up.

---
Let's see if we get a blow off top/consolidation/bull train continuation

ES: Now that we're having a range bound shake fest vs today's opening hourly candle of 2071.5 vs 2062.25, this is letting the 1HR 20EMA catch up for the next up it seems. First try at 1HR 20EMA is a BTFD just like 8EMA earlier.

[Tutti]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

[Daniel]

IWM, RSP HOD (or thereabouts), QQQ and SPY not (yet)

[Junior Buffett]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

And that could be very well case here and provide the kick to market but that is still few days away and this rally can take us to 2100's or higher before that...

[Unique]

VXX 15m...bull flag

[Junior Buffett]

VIX is holding with a surprising strength even after market is more that 1%...VIX green!!!!!!! shocker...

Usually VIX bottom before market tops...

[Unique]

Day trade: Sell stop at ES 2061.75

[DellGriffith]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

I remember I looked at the start of a series of rate hikes in the past and if I recall correctly, the Fed opted to start hiking when the market was euphoric. That first hike killed the euphoria and kick started a correction.

By that line of thinking, the meeting next week would be the perfect time to start hiking because the stock market can absorb the gut punch thanks to this huge rally. That doesn't mean it will happen though.

[Unique]

Gentlemen, strap on your seatbelts. Let's see if we get our ES hourly extreme overbought signal blow off top setup.....or we get sticksaved at 1HR 20EMA....we will know in a short few minutes

ALL ABOARD!!!

[Unique]

Bot some VXX 20 calls

VXX NEW HOD

MrMiyagi, do you get pbars on options ?

Here's a good one
VXX November 20 calls to 3.11

[gappy]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

I remember I looked at the start of a series of rate hikes in the past and if I recall correctly, the Fed opted to start hiking when the market was euphoric. That first hike killed the euphoria and kick started a correction.

By that line of thinking, the meeting next week would be the perfect time to start hiking because the stock market can absorb the gut punch thanks to this huge rally. That doesn't mean it will happen though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jt377DV2BKs

[josephli]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

Most economists estimate it will be December. Though market think differently. The problem here is ECB hinted further QE later this year (DEC), a rate hike by the fed will strengthen the dollar further. That does not help the economy. Plus the tightening and low commodity price, it might cause deflation.

[tsf]

CME Group FedWatch
Probability of rate hike in Dec 2015 is now 34.5% (was 29.8 and 29.2 the prvious days)

[Unique]

ES hourly closed as bear bar reversal. Do or die at 1HR 20EMA ...

[fehro]

SPX green, VIX green, TLT pushing HOD