10/23/2015 Live Update

[Unique]

Day trade: Sell stop at ES 2061.75

1HR 20EMA = ES 2057.17.

THE 2061.75 Short was executed. TARGET IS 2035, STOP IS 2070.

IF YOU DON'T AGREE WITH BLOW OFF TOP SETUP/OVERBOUGHT SIGNAL, THEN YOUR TARGET IS 2055-2057.5 TO COVER

[uempel]

A few weeks ago Louise Yamada gave an interview on Bloomberg. She says that the bull run of 2009 is (most likely) over and that she advised clients to sell into this rally (which she predicted).

You guys might not know Yamada, but she is one of the best technical analysts, used to work for Smith Barney (Citigroup). I'm less bearish than she, but it troubles me that she's so negative. She was dead right in the past when I was way off course

[Out of Bounds]

A few weeks ago Louise Yamada gave an interview on Bloomberg. She says that the bull run of 2009 is (most likely) over and that she advised clients to sell into this rally (which she predicted).

You guys might not know Yamada, but she is one of the best technical analysts, used to work for Smith Barney (Citigroup). I'm less bearish than she, but it troubles me that she's so negative. She was dead right in the past when I was way off course

She is really good.

[Tutti]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

Most economists estimate it will be December. Though market think differently. The problem here is ECB hinted further QE later this year (DEC), a rate hike by the fed will strengthen the dollar further. That does not help the economy. Plus the tightening and low commodity price, it might cause deflation.

is a 25 basis point increase really going to cause deflation? Market participants seem to be pretending a quarter point now == 2500 basis points. Also isn't their decision data driven? If so, what the ECB or China does near-term probably wont have enough time to impact a December decision. Or am I wrong- headed here?

[BullBear52x]

intraday first counter trend

[josephli]

A few weeks ago Louise Yamada gave an interview on Bloomberg. She says that the bull run of 2009 is (most likely) over and that she advised clients to sell into this rally (which she predicted).

You guys might not know Yamada, but she is one of the best technical analysts, used to work for Smith Barney (Citigroup). I'm less bearish than she, but it troubles me that she's so negative. She was dead right in the past when I was way off course

Not sure it is over. but high chance more consolidation is needed before moving up. If this is the end of consolidation phase, the duration of correction is short relative to past (2011,1998).

[Unique]

For bears:

The weekly candle ES must have a large top tail by EOD for the monthly candle next week to have a chance!!

[Unique]

A few weeks ago Louise Yamada gave an interview on Bloomberg. She says that the bull run of 2009 is (most likely) over and that she advised clients to sell into this rally (which she predicted).

You guys might not know Yamada, but she is one of the best technical analysts, used to work for Smith Barney (Citigroup). I'm less bearish than she, but it troubles me that she's so negative. She was dead right in the past when I was way off course

+1 I liked the video u posted a few weeks ago

[DellGriffith]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

I remember I looked at the start of a series of rate hikes in the past and if I recall correctly, the Fed opted to start hiking when the market was euphoric. That first hike killed the euphoria and kick started a correction.

By that line of thinking, the meeting next week would be the perfect time to start hiking because the stock market can absorb the gut punch thanks to this huge rally. That doesn't mean it will happen though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jt377DV2BKs

I cant view youtube at work.

[DellGriffith]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

Most economists estimate it will be December. Though market think differently. The problem here is ECB hinted further QE later this year (DEC), a rate hike by the fed will strengthen the dollar further. That does not help the economy. Plus the tightening and low commodity price, it might cause deflation.

is a 25 basis point increase really going to cause deflation? Market participants seem to be pretending a quarter point now == 2500 basis points. Also isn't their decision data driven? If so, what the ECB or China does near-term probably wont have enough time to impact a December decision. Or am I wrong- headed here?

If they cut regulations on businesses, they can hike interest rates up to 5% and not get deflation. Cutting regulations is powerful stimulus that would overpower any deflationary aspect of higher rates.

[josephli]

All GURUS,

Can anyone/everyone be kind to provide their view on :

What if we drop to 2030 by end of the day, will that cut the expectation of going higher high? Will that count as reversal and hint that market is going down?

Thanks

Not a guru by any stretch of that definition and not answering your question, but adding one to it: if the whole we can't cut rates bc it looks like we are entering a bear market argument is now dead and the market is up 10% for the month and companies like GOOG and AMZN are swimming in $$$$$$, how can the Fed argue against not raising rates? Everything is so great, why would the Fed be worried about a 1/4 point increase? Seems like an increase is imminent to me.

Most economists estimate it will be December. Though market think differently. The problem here is ECB hinted further QE later this year (DEC), a rate hike by the fed will strengthen the dollar further. That does not help the economy. Plus the tightening and low commodity price, it might cause deflation.

is a 25 basis point increase really going to cause deflation? Market participants seem to be pretending a quarter point now == 2500 basis points. Also isn't their decision data driven? If so, what the ECB or China does near-term probably wont have enough time to impact a December decision. Or am I wrong- headed here?

I agree the deflation scenario is a long shot. Previous minutes indicated that FED did consider slow down of China as economic headwind. Basically in current environment Fed's credibility is at stake, in case the first move is wrong then Yellen will get a lot calling from Congress

[Cobra]

vol surge, possible double bottom here.

[Trades with cats]

Tutti, It isn't the US, the problem is the effect of US rates on developing world. They issued tons of $ denominated debt. If dollar goes up Brazil etc are in even bigger trouble. If copper etc go much lower Glencore and the other three giant commodity trading firms will implode and take out the English banking system and who knows how big a whole they will blow in ours. Goldman was estimating up to a trillion in total unsecured debt.

Worse yet as the dollar strengthens the money leaves China at a faster rate. As the money leaves the PBOC has to sell even more US treasuries to stabilize the currency, flooding the market and driving down prices. The Fed could care less about you and me, after all they have destroyed the golden years of everyone who saved, but PBOC and BOJ are big enough to fight back, and they are.

[Unique]

Day trade: Take1/4 profit at ES 2057.00 buy to cover limit. Trail the rest for 2035 target, BE stop

[Unique]

Bot some VXX 20 calls

VXX Nov 20 calls - take 1/4 off at 1.30. Target still remains at 1.50. Start trailing. Up 30-35%

[Out of Bounds]

SPY, Russell, DOW and COMP breadths are at new lows.

[BullBear52x]

Fib number still play a major role.

[Unique]

ES: Approaching 1HR 20EMA. Key time both sides

[Unique]

Day trade: Took profit covered 1/4 at 2057.00 as explained in plan from a few mins ago

[Daniel]

All current Risk Off signals are flashing.