11/12/2015 Live Update

[Unique]

ES Hourly: Closed as a 1HR 8EMA rejection candle, also we have a bear sandwich setup. Should get a LOD breakdown during this hour or the next if bears are real.

Here's the reading on it: http://thepatternsite.com/StickSandwich.html

[Al_Dente]

Heat map (slight delay)
Lots of red, mostly banks and oils

[josephli]

I was looking at some long term charts last night and was struck by how this bull top look so different from other bull tops and realized that I no longer think this is a top. I have become bullish and can see another (LT) leg to make this an historic bull.. I'll try to draw up some charts tonight to illustrate.

Boss, long term in the secular sense or the cyclical sense?

Secular. I think there will be a wealth driven demand for profit that will push the price higher for anything that makes money. Too much cash will drive down yields (even further) and growth will be rewarded unusually highly.

I TOTALLY agree I think structurally this is very much like Nov 1980. flirting with all time highs after breaking out of the secular bear. Normal ~25% correction when EVERYONE must have been thinking retest of the secular lows and then a massive new secular bull market. I wonder if the next President drives it, kind of like with Regan? (NON POLITICAL STATEMENT)

NOV1980_NewSecularBull_SecularGamePlan.jpg

boss, does that imply there will be one more drop in the nearer term?

[ALdaytrade]

ES: Ladies and gentlemen, see that 1HR 8EMA rejection candle (29mins left to close)? Break 2051 and we could be at 2035 target by EOD.

If we screw around all day though at the present levels, the overnight target is 2075 to 2079 to form the other shoulder that is on fehro's chart. (Lime green right shoulder).

Thinking that will be it!

I hear new york and chicago traders are skipping lunch today in order to board this bear train

Who are you "hearing" this from? I think they all tell each other what to do before lunch, meet for lunch to discuss how the rest of the day should go.

(Paranoid personality disorder, creates this thinking pattern.)

[Trades with cats]

So ES broke out of the channel in advance of the oil elevator up, then the elevator went the wrong way. Now we are stuck, can't even get to the edges of the range. Is it because all the Fed honchos are making speeches?

[Trades with cats]

Here we go ES closing in on a lower low.

[Al_Dente]

Up was a trap
Let’s try down on a break

[fehro]

into the gap.. SPX

[Unique]

ES: Broke 2052. THE TRAIN HAS LEFT THE STATION!!!

[Out of Bounds]

I don't think it will matter. People are spending less and saving more, that will put a downward pressure on yields. Central banks will find their influence diminished.

consumer credit, oy
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... -raise-now

1112consumer credit.png.png

Right. This applies to the average consumer. But, as the wealth divide increases, the increasingly wealthy need passive income. When Joe and Sally default on their credit, the wealthy will have even fewer ways to find income for their money and will drive yields down. Real Estate will rise even though fewer and fewer want to own. Fewer will become willing to borrow to own automobiles as the sharing economy increases. middle income millennials will spend more of their incomes on experiences and life events rather than material items.
Production as a means of income will become increasingly difficult.

[daytradingES]

now taking some deep breaths to chill
This chart to me is very clear- The uptrend -some 250pts!! is broken.

Funnymental factors:

• US corp earnings down on both top and bottom lime
  
  if Fed raises rates it will worry people that they are setting a trend and Emerging market countries with high debt levels can't take higher rates.
  
  if market begins to fall in interest all the "banksters" of corp fin, mutual funds will sell,sell,
  
  yesterday on bnn,ca a mutual fund manager crowed (aventine) about getting the prize for top performer in 1 year ranking in Canada out of 350 funds. (His performance? 6.5% in one fund and 1.5 in another and that is the best???)
  
  most people and countries and states and cities are leverage to the hilt with debt
  
  don't forget Chicago declared bankruptcy (I think)
  
  debt to GDP ratios are very high (even China)
  
  OECD just (2 days ago?) lowered world GDP estimates again
  
  with GDP down debt to GDP goes up - it rates rise interest costs rise and total debt rises further
  
  Greece isn't "fixed" and won't even start til they do an "Iceland"
  
  Portugal, Spain and Italy? (PIGS)
  
  war in Syria - 5 years now?
  migrant crisis and costs with that
  
  Ukraine
  
  Iran sanctions coming off - more war??
  
  bottom line QE was only for the banks and never intended to help the economy as the Fed (bankers trust) is only interest in engorging the owners pockets (JP morgan, citicorp ets)

[marcueus]

Guys tell me one thing. Why market is so strong .... If we do not get hammer today, than tommorrow we will bottom

[uempel]

Update:

[Al_Dente]

I don't think it will matter. People are spending less and saving more, that will put a downward pressure on yields. Central banks will find their influence diminished.

consumer credit, oy

Right. This applies to the average consumer. But, as the wealth divide increases, the increasingly wealthy need passive income. When Joe and Sally default on their credit, the wealthy will have even fewer ways to find income for their money and will drive yields down. Real Estate will rise even though fewer and fewer want to own. Fewer will become willing to borrow to own automobiles as the sharing economy increases. middle income millennials will spend more of their incomes on experiences and life events rather than material items.
Production as a means of income will become increasingly difficult.

got it boss, thanks

[Unique]

ES: Choo Choo train!!

[Trades with cats]

HA!

[Cobra]

100% mm. a little late, maybe a rebound here first.

[uempel]

Tutti:

I TOTALLY agree I think structurally this is very much like Nov 1980. flirting with all time highs after breaking out of the secular bear. Normal ~25% correction when EVERYONE must have been thinking retest of the secular lows and then a massive new secular bull market. I wonder if the next President drives it, kind of like with Regan? (NON POLITICAL STATEMENT)
NOV1980_NewSecularBull_SecularGamePlan.jpg


uempel: Structurally the same as 1980? Tutti, check the historic rates. Volcker was appointed in 1979 and the rates touched 20 percent.

[fehro]

SPX .. pennies short of a gap fill .. covering shorts some shorts from yesterday, and before. Let a small portion run.. may dabble long here

[Unique]

FYI, if ES fulfills the 2035-2040 target today, then it's likely we get an hourly extreme oversold signal there based on current market conditions.

ES: The hourly extreme oversold signal is forming, no where near confirmed yet.