08/12/2011 Intraday Watering

[BullBear52x]

now it looks more and more like Ascending Triangle or a little worse case, Rectangle.

Whatever it is, my crystal ball now floating with the number 123 what is that???? that's 5$ more? no way....

[BullBear52x]

per my magic market, this looks more like a bear trap than anything else. I am soBIAS

[Al_Dente]

Good morning Cobra and all,
Been on vacation. Entered a long position yesterday for a swing trade. Stop is below 1118. Hope to hold for a week or two.

we may have diff opinion, but i still like your chart. it explained 2 of my failed trades yesterday.
i think it will not break out the H-line around 1150, so i shorted and got stopped out. then i had another bet in the red box, betting for a back test of the break out. apparently the bo is strong and legitimate, and i have to say i didn't give full respect of.

I'm a swing (preferably position) trader, and so, if you are a day trader then our decisions may not match up. A few things to notice on the chart : TICK has been in an uptrend since 8/8, through the potential bottom. Yesterday, when you placed a short, TRIN was bullish and TICK was trending bullish. This combo I will not short. Notice the extremely high positive TICKs on 8/10 and 8/11, with negative TICK "only" reaching -1000 (it's all relative!). I interpreted this as "smart money" being put back to work. The red box is a statistical time & price window for an expected 60 min. cycle high based on the last 6 cycles measured with a 0.75 zig-zag filter. When price went clear through it (although it did hiccup on the way through) I interpret this as bullish. The blue box is the next expected 60 min. cycle low. From experience, if this is a new intermediate bull trend, then price may not touch it. The 50 DMA made a bear cross of the 200 DMA yesterday that may have long term implications, but the 200 DMA was rising, and is now flat, and price may have a chance at re-testing that area before a longer term down trend ensues. I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.

RHIGHT: Thank you for sharing your charts. Your bottom detector/ned davis/NYHLR:NYTOT was quite interesting, as well as your other charts. I'm going to study them more after the close.

[varaamo]

rhight,

Can u please verify this.
When you are are referring to the bottom indicator, is it the $NYHL:$NYTOT chart?

Thanks,

Good morning Cobra and all,
Been on vacation. Entered a long position yesterday for a swing trade. Stop is below 1118. Hope to hold for a week or two.

we may have diff opinion, but i still like your chart. it explained 2 of my failed trades yesterday.
i think it will not break out the H-line around 1150, so i shorted and got stopped out. then i had another bet in the red box, betting for a back test of the break out. apparently the bo is strong and legitimate, and i have to say i didn't give full respect of.

I'm a swing (preferably position) trader, and so, if you are a day trader then our decisions may not match up. A few things to notice on the chart : TICK has been in an uptrend since 8/8, through the potential bottom. Yesterday, when you placed a short, TRIN was bullish and TICK was trending bullish. This combo I will not short. Notice the extremely high positive TICKs on 8/10 and 8/11, with negative TICK "only" reaching -1000 (it's all relative!). I interpreted this as "smart money" being put back to work. The red box is a statistical time & price window for an expected 60 min. cycle high based on the last 6 cycles measured with a 0.75 zig-zag filter. When price went clear through it (although it did hiccup on the way through) I interpret this as bullish. The blue box is the next expected 60 min. cycle low. From experience, if this is a new intermediate bull trend, then price may not touch it. The 50 DMA made a bear cross of the 200 DMA yesterday that may have long term implications, but the 200 DMA was rising, and is now flat, and price may have a chance at re-testing that area before a longer term down trend ensues. I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.

[StrikePrice]

Did everybody leave for the Hamptons? If so we won't get the move to 122 or to 115 until Monday. Which means I'm just wasting my time watching this correction bore me to death.

[BullBear52x]

If we can get new HOD, that will translate to 3rd time is a charm from double top recent gap resistance. Only IF, I am in a good mood today too many coffee?

[BullBear52x]

here is the gap resistance I'm referring to, bulls must do it here or I will switch side

[newbie_77]

i closed my shorts @ a loss. .so now we will go down

[muktuk]

Thanks for the responses to my question from earlier today!

[BullBear52x]

This is where the patient is required.

[Al_Dente]

here is the gap resistance I'm referring to, bulls must do it here or I will switch side

BullBear: I show the top of the gap at 119.80 ish. Gap NOT filled yet. Failed twice today. Also corresponds to Cobra's resistance at the 200sma on the 15 min chart

[BullBear52x]

here is the gap resistance I'm referring to, bulls must do it here or I will switch side

BullBear: I show the top of the gap at 119.80 ish. Gap NOT filled yet. Failed twice today. Also corresponds to Cobra's resistance at the 200sma on the 15 min chart

When we all agreed, that's when I worry the most.

[StrikePrice]

Hello Mr. Volatility Squeeze. Where do you want to take us?

[BullBear52x]

Yes, Bulls go to the bank again.

[rhight]

[quote="varaamo"]rhight,

Can u please verify this.
When you are are referring to the bottom indicator, is it the $NYHL:$NYTOT chart?

Thanks,

[thanos]

love this drop in the VIX killing the premiums that i sold yesterday. SPX 'should' go back to 1205 area today or early Monday unless something else gets downgraded this weekend! My 'guess' is we hit 1206 then a retest of the lows again --- or we bottomed and off to the races we go.

[BullBear52x]

Just for fun, watch this little flag for the fast and a furious move, up!

[varaamo]

Many Thanks rhight for sharing this.

Does Ned Davis have any similar indicator for determining tops of this intermediate runs? Looks like you subscribing to Ned Davis newsletter or something? If so, can you please share the type of subscription to their research. On their website, i noticed there are bunch of them.

rhight,

Can u please verify this.
When you are are referring to the bottom indicator, is it the $NYHL:$NYTOT chart?

Thanks,

Good morning Cobra and all,
Been on vacation. Entered a long position yesterday for a swing trade. Stop is below 1118. Hope to hold for a week or two.
I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.

Yes, $NYHL:$NYTOT is the chart. I call it a "Bottom Detector" just to slap myself in the face, since I've missed so many good bottoms, if you know what I mean. Anyways, the Ned Davis data set is from 1966 to 2005, the chart is labeled "New Highs Minus New Lows / Issues Traded -- Five Day Smoothing" in which they label this zone "So Bad It's Good". The text reads, "It shows a particularly strong positive result when the ratio declines to below -13.8%. Otherwise, the results are mixed."

[BullBear52x]

Not good bulls, the fast and furious taking a wrong turn.

[Petsamo]

In looking at the 1 min chart, did we just get a signal to sell off?