12/18/2015 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

Good morning.

Still long from Monday.
I took profits on half pre-FOMC. Put profit stop on rest.
I hedged short to go neutral after FOMC.
Regrettably, I closed the hedge mid-day. Obviously pre-mature.
I added long as a day trade a little while ago. Profit stop is on.
Don't know if I'll close it or hold if it survives to end of day.
So, far this is a good campaign, recent action notwithstanding.

NYMO looks constructive.
Price could still go down and even break Monday lows in days ahead, but It would likely be with positive NYMO divergence.
So, I will stay long oriented. Santa rally would obviously be the preferred scenario.
Exception is that I am ready to shut down for holiday and may not bother if Mr. Market keeps up with the whack behavior.

I have a question for Miyagi or anyone else who may know.
Are there any outstanding downside P-Bars lurking out there? Even stale ones?
Have to consider a scenario that takes those out before year-end. Just a possibility not a prediction. No clue what will happen.

[daytradingES]

9:05 AM 12/18/2015
could take 2007 before zig-zagging higher but essentially low is in place (I think

not trading cash today.

2007 as in ES or SPX?

2007 as in ES march 2016 contract
(all my numbers are always ES unless otherwise stated. all the times are CT as the ES trade in Chicago)

don't know how you do it, but your system is amazingly accurate.

Very kind Joe -thank you.

It has been years and years work and very long days 7 days a week.
Remember my estimate are only that estimates.
As time progresses they are getting better, however.

The problem is the ES RTH is a very narrow time window and the key trade for me is soon after opening - before there is much RTH information.

It's not yet money in the bank for me. - my trading capital is very low. I need to have a day like yesterday that starts at the top (and that my estimates say it is starting at the top AND going to trend down). I don't like to trade long as I believe that a flash crash can happen at any time and is more and more likely.

Also I want to trade at the top of a swing. the hill (Nov 2-3, Dec 4-7 and yesterday).


In a flash crash they might might NOT fill your protective stop loss and you are liable for whatever is the loss - could be $7,500 per contract - and wipe out accounts (far beyond your account balance). The big problem with a flash crash is that the cascading stop losses fuel the fall in an accelerating avalanche.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING TRADES WITH CATS:
There is a guy Bloomberg calls “Gandalf” [JPM's head quant, Marko Kolanovic] because his calls have been spot on.
You’ve posted a number of times regarding him.
He called this rout
IF YOU SEE ANY UPDATES from him, PLEASE POST, thanks

Eg: old post from “Gandalf”: There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market.”

[fehro]

SPX.. trying hard to hold this level.. AAPL lingers at LOD, VIX 15m very hairy… lots of spikes.. yeah I know, Quad witch, y/e .. looks like a bull flag.. Minor invs H&S trying to set up on SPX /SPY 5m intra day.. but.. still feel we may see a shocking drop.. VXX is weak.. so may not happen.. but VXX picks up.. look out!

[josephli]

TLT strong, USD/SPY drop big. bearish leaning.

[fehro]

SPY D/60m

[Al_Dente]

Good morning....... I have a question for Miyagi or anyone else who may know.
Are there any outstanding downside P-Bars lurking out there? Even stale ones?
Have to consider a scenario that takes those out before year-end. Just a possibility not a prediction. No clue what will happen.

I have old P-Bars from schwab overnight
200.43 and 200.04 (from 12/14)
199.45 (from 12/02)
[all are approximate]

Happy Holidays Mr Bach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDE2vbszmVk

[josephli]

PAGING TRADES WITH CATS:
There is a guy Bloomberg calls “Gandalf” [JPM's head quant, Marko Kolanovic] because his calls have been spot on.
You’ve posted a number of times regarding him.
He called this rout
IF YOU SEE ANY UPDATES from him, PLEASE POST, thanks

Eg: old post from “Gandalf”: There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market.”

the 1.1 trillion is face value of options themselves or the value of underlying asset?

[Unique]

Have a great weekend everyone!!

Still holding the 203 SPY calls and will see how they do at 3:30pm worthless or double/triple. I have sell orders at 0.40 and 0.60 from 0.20 entry.

[fehro]

AAPL looking a tad weak.. new LOD

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:50 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

2nd test of day low, wait to see if bulls can make double bottom here.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

Coppock rolling to neg on the 5 min. ps..approx 350 trillion financial instruments world wide, most are dollar denominated, about 40% US corp profits derived overseas....this op/ex is about standard. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nrZ_36 ... e=youtu.be

[Mr. BachNut]

Good morning....... I have a question for Miyagi or anyone else who may know.
Are there any outstanding downside P-Bars lurking out there? Even stale ones?
Have to consider a scenario that takes those out before year-end. Just a possibility not a prediction. No clue what will happen.

I have old P-Bars from schwab overnight
200.43 and 200.04 (from 12/14)
199.45 (from 12/02)
[all are approximate]

Happy Holidays Mr Bach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDE2vbszmVk

Great Video. My dog comes and listens when I practice but is too shy to sing.

So, that low P-Bar would translate to roughly SPX 1999.62 and be consistent with a serious test of the Monday low.
Double bottom scenario perhaps?
Let's see what happens.

[Mr. BachNut]

P.S. Thnx Al D

[Al_Dente]

P.S. Thnx Al D

Here’s what they look like on schw
The grey-vertical areas are after-hours and pre-mkt
[ooooops, sorry, cancel that one at 200.04, that one is not a p-bar. The one at 200.43 is the p-bar]

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Trades with cats]

josephli,

It is the face on the puts. Biggest expiring position in several years. But because Gandalf called it out to the public it wasn't an unknown. Today Reuters was saying if the S&P hits the 2000, the 1950 or the 1900 strike the inbalance in puts would force the market makers to start hedging by selling futures thus leading to a horrific crash cascade. Lucky for us Citadel Trading is ready to step in with Fed money if this happens

I am not on JPM mailing list so all I see are the crumbs republished by Zerohedge, although Gandalf's last call did make the Wall Street Journal.

[fehro]

SPX new LOD

[Al_Dente]

LOD