01/29/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

this bull shall have legs.

[uempel]

Reminder. Of course SPX can push through 1920 resistance - but in my view it's very unlikely that 1920 will be busted into the close.

[fehro]

TLT near Jan 2016 spike highs + 0.83 !! TLT green, SPX green… a tad suspicious.

[fehro]

SPX at gap

[Daniel]

TLT green, SPX green… a tad suspicious.

..not necessarily, and not always-- there are times and conditions when long bonds and stocks positively correlate. Ultimately most bull markets are killed by rising interest rates, and long bonds and stocks decline together...

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages show a bullish bias - except big cap technology i.e. BPNDX

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

[Al_Dente]

Testing resistance, 5min

[Daniel]

Hm.. huge REJECT by price at a multiday high, on KRE.

Often a canary, or a frontrunner.. perhaps a harbinger of upcoming 'typical' last trading session of the month Selloff Blues..?

[Tutti]

TLT near Jan 2016 spike highs + 0.83 !! TLT green, SPX green… a tad suspicious.

U$D Green, crude /cl green too.

...someone is fibbing

[Al_Dente]

NY advancing stocks are 10 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume is 9.5 x declining volume

[fehro]

TLT green, SPX green… a tad suspicious.

..not necessarily, and not always-- there are times and conditions when long bonds and stocks positively correlate. Ultimately most bull markets are killed by rising interest rates, and long bonds and stocks decline together...

possibly… but isn't the bond market twice the size of the equity market? .. and/or it's BOJ.

[superxy]

TLT near Jan 2016 spike highs + 0.83 !! TLT green, SPX green… a tad suspicious.

U$D Green, crude /cl green too.

...someone is fibbing

because Japan negative interest rate .... Can't beat that

[Wallstreetrader]

Gm

Dead cat bounce ?

[fehro]

SPX stalls at gap.. so far.. but so close to a fill… seems in a down market open upper gaps are tougher to fill, same in reverse open lower gaps in the bull market don't get filled.. just a general observation.. still may get filled…. but takes longer.

[Daniel]

possibly… but isn't the bond market twice the size of the equity market? .. and/or it's BOJ.

"Ultimately most bull markets are killed by rising interest rates..."

I mean ultra longterm, the macro forces all markets are reflecting over monthly timeframes. Rising rates mean lower P/E ratios on the same profits.

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B here... It must be Friday.

Last week's post had a bullish flavor. This weeks will be a little bearish.

We are just approaching my lowest target area and look where NYMO is.
We have to see where it closes today, but a pullback toward the zero line would be normal.
As long as NYMO stays positive, there should be a bullish undercurrent.
However, a NYMO high like this is usually followed by a price pullback or consolidation.
As we have been chopping and consolidating much of this week, I am not sure what to expect.
Perhaps we get closure of one open gap followed by something unpleasant before proceeding higher targets, but I don't know.
Let's see what happens.

Another observation I made this week is that my upper Keltner band has made lower lows and is definitively downward facing.
In bull markets, my upper band gets regular tags and the lower one gets a rare tag. Vice versa in bear markets.
My last tag on the upper keltner was July 2014! Four lower band punches since then.
So, the message is that while there are some lofty possible targets out there, tough resistance is now below the major highs and falling.
Bummer.

I am long from last week.
I hedged going into FOMC. It was a great idea, but I mangled the exit in the chop and spilled a lot of the juice.
If NYMO closes up at these highs today, I will be focused on shorter time frame setups to hedge or even short next week.
Bias is to hedge but with Vol up here going both ways may be attractive. The goal will be not to outsmart myself... which probably advises to do nothing or go flat.
So, all options on the table... Just clueless as usual I guess...

[fehro]

TLT near Jan 2016 spike highs + 0.83 !! TLT green, SPX green… a tad suspicious.

U$D Green, crude /cl green too.

...someone is fibbing

DXY retest/ flag still… /GC gold perking up at tad.

[josephli]

looking to a gap filled first.

[Daniel]

USO down -1.5% from the Open.

[hunterman]

Comment on earlier post, inflow due to end of month rebalance and also fund track....many groups looking at jan performance n now want to chase next leg...jmho but I believe fails as small usually on wrong side of the boat but time will tell and we shall see. I also have major move like U-man for middle of next week!
GLTA...position current 100 percent cash