02/06/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution, accumulation is rising while distribution is down, so it's the bottoming phase. The chart doesn't reflect the Friday's huge down though, so maybe the next week it'd be different.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money keeps buying so pointing to a bottom. Combining with the institutional buying and selling chart, so the Friday's sell off was just a surprise, the next week will resume up?



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Al_Dente]

One week %
Week-to-date

[Al_Dente]

The aggressive sectors on the DAILY
All are under 10ma, with weak momentum EXCEPT industrials and transports which buck the trend.
QQQ and XLY, previously the brightest Stars of the Rodeo, were down today/friday -3.47% and -3.23% respectively.

[MrMiyagi]

Mr. M, It is a lower low close based on Mr. BachNut's definition, does it now meet your definition of a M-shaped top? Thanks.

It's pretty close, see what happens Monday.

NYMO

[josephli]

Smart money keeps buying so pointing to a bottom. Combining with the institutional buying and selling chart, so the Friday's sell off was just a surprise, the next week will resume up?



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Boss, when you compare the chart to August then you see that the the hedger position big up way earlier than the second leg down. also, in institution dis/accu chart, it seems there were several cross over around 09/17. therefore i don't think there is a contradiction. pretty much a good predictive indicator, but not well timed.

[fehro]

Weekly/Daily candles not pretty.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies - gold and silver up big +20%

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

[fehro]

Yields - Have a good weekend! I may not be posting on Monday, weekend dependant!

[brokebybernacke2]

Weekly/Daily candles not pretty.

Aargh. Chartless. I got 1780sp target for this run down assume fed will step in by then

[TraderJoe]

Boy, I hope you are close to correct on the 1780.
I have a 'small' boatload of 3/18 175 SPY puts i'm holding. So far I'm up around 50% on them. I sure like to see more..!

[hunterman]

I like that play, if my cycles were correct, then we should have a low around mid March! Sitting 100% cash waiting for swing entry. Now if we DO drop to low at that time load da boat for swing long! Patience must be kept
Glta

[ALdaytrade]

So we have tagged the 1872 three times, now.

Will we break this head and shoulders pattern this week?

[TraderJoe]

UBS cuts its 2016 S&P 500 target and says stocks could fall 8% in the next few weeks..!


http://www.businessinsider.com/ubs-juli ... +user+view

[rhight]

My 2 cents :

An interesting consolidation pattern (continuation or reversal?) has developed since the January low on the SPX. I’m not sure which it is, although my cycle study suggests a couple possibilities discussed below.

Shorter term, a 60 min swing up to test a downtrend from the 12/29/15 2081 Hi through the 2/1/16 1947 Hi may be in order. Perhaps tellingly, Thursdays Hi at 1927.35 did not reach this downtrend line (1931 on that day), producing a key reversal on the 60 min chart. That was after a gap down on Tuesday morning that remains unclosed. Price wise, these look like bearish portents. Still, the gap up from 1/22 hasn’t closed and is firm support.

A move up on Monday would be met with declining 5 and 20 DMA’s, the gap at 1915, the downtrend at ~1920 and the 61.8% retrace of the swing down from 1947.
Potentially substantial resistance, at least for a 60 min swing. If we see a lower Hi on the 60 min swing (< 1927) then that could open the door to a break of support at 1870.

If we gap down on Monday, we may be off to the races on a wave 3 of 5 discussed below.

EW choices:

Bull : we are in the b wave of an abc wave 4 retracement of the Dec/Jan downtrend, and wave c will extend up to major resistance in the 1980 - 2000 range. My cycle analysis gave a window of 2/4 to 2/9 for a high probability Daily cycle Hi, and so we could still go charging up for a few days.

Bear : wave 4 of the downtrend from the December Hi completed at 1947, and we have now completed wave 1 and 2 of the 5th wave. We are now in the early stages of wave 3 of 5, and a big move down may commence in a couple days. IF 1947 was the Daily cycle Hi, then cycle analysis yields a high probability for a Low between 2/18 and 2/23. The image shows the turning points that I used in this analysis. No price predictions because the statistical window in so broad given the wide swings in the past 6 months. Better to look at other factors as a trend emerges.

Full disclosure : in cash, closed a short a eod Friday.

[brokebybernacke2]

My 2 cents :

An interesting consolidation pattern (continuation or reversal?) has developed since the January low on the SPX. I’m not sure which it is, although my cycle study suggests a couple possibilities discussed below.

Shorter term, a 60 min swing up to test a downtrend from the 12/29/15 2081 Hi through the 2/1/16 1947 Hi may be in order. Perhaps tellingly, Thursdays Hi at 1927.35 did not reach this downtrend line (1931 on that day), producing a key reversal on the 60 min chart. That was after a gap down on Tuesday morning that remains unclosed. Price wise, these look like bearish portents. Still, the gap up from 1/22 hasn’t closed and is firm support.

A move up on Monday would be met with declining 5 and 20 DMA’s, the gap at 1915, the downtrend at ~1920 and the 61.8% retrace of the swing down from 1947.
Potentially substantial resistance, at least for a 60 min swing. If we see a lower Hi on the 60 min swing (< 1927) then that could open the door to a break of support at 1870.

If we gap down on Monday, we may be off to the races on a wave 3 of 5 discussed below.

EW choices:

Bull : we are in the b wave of an abc wave 4 retracement of the Dec/Jan downtrend, and wave c will extend up to major resistance in the 1980 - 2000 range. My cycle analysis gave a window of 2/4 to 2/9 for a high probability Daily cycle Hi, and so we could still go charging up for a few days.

Bear : wave 4 of the downtrend from the December Hi completed at 1947, and we have now completed wave 1 and 2 of the 5th wave. We are now in the early stages of wave 3 of 5, and a big move down may commence in a couple days. IF 1947 was the Daily cycle Hi, then cycle analysis yields a high probability for a Low between 2/18 and 2/23. The image shows the turning points that I used in this analysis. No price predictions because the statistical window in so broad given the wide swings in the past 6 months. Better to look at other factors as a trend emerges.

SPX 02-05-16 T&P.png

Full disclosure : in cash, closed a short a eod Friday.

Like gap down monday scenario nasdaq tech lead way short other indices as they catch up, people late to bail...

[DellGriffith]

Consecutive trading days without hitting / approaching upper bb
ALL of SPY history

33 days from Oct - Dec 2012
33 days from Apr - June 2010
34 days from May - June 2006
35 days from Aug - Oct 2002 (dot com bust)
36 days from July - Aug 2011 (end of QE2 and before Operation Twist)
36 days from Feb - Apr 2015 (end of QE3 & worry over rate hikes)
37 days from Oct - Dec 2007 (recession officially began in Dec 2007)
39 days from May - June 2011 (end of QE2)
39 days from Sept - Oct 2000 (dot com bust)
39 days from Jan - Mar 2003 (dot com bust)
40 days from Dec 2014 - Feb 2015 (end of QE3)
42 days from Aug - Oct 1999 (a series of fed rate hikes to slow economy)
42 days from Aug - Oct 2001 (dot com bust)
43 days from July - Sept 1998 (Asian flu)(Russian economic crisis)

-- anything 45+ days happened during an economic bust (until 2015 unless it turns out we are in a recession already in future revisions to data) --
-- (unless you just want to say China's economic bust counts against the US economy) --

45 days from Feb - Apr 2001 (dot com bust)
46 days from Mar - May 2002 (dot com bust)
48 days from Jan - Mar 2000 (dot com bust)
48 days from May - July 2008 (credit bubble bust)
49 days from Dec 2007- Feb 2008 (credit bubble bust)
58 days from June - Sep 2015 (China economic collapse + end of QE3 + threat of US rate hike)
60 days from May - Aug 2002 (dot com bust)
62 days from Nov 2015-??? (China economic collapse + US rate hike) (CURRENT)
82 days from Sept - Dec 2008 (credit bubble bust)

At 62 days, our current streak is the 2nd longest of all time.

We set the 4th longest streak of all time last september at 58 days.

Amazingly, the market has set two of the top 4 streaks in the past year.

[brucekeller]

Things are shifting and I think miners and commodities plays will rule the day for a little while, but 2008 happening again, just don't see it, not yet. Maybe in like 4 years when DB runs out of steam.

[bimmerbob]

deleted - messed up chart