03/02/2016 Live Update

[JFR]

Very choppy. Much resistance. But pushing hard.

[Tutti]

here are my thought on fundamentals: so far the employment and core cpi are very good. if Fed is about to follow its dual mandate then they should increase rate again in March, with April by the latest. The only reason has been holding them back is the market down big creating financial tightening, and the worry that it will spill over to real economy.

so far the market has recovered a lot, with Fed meeting in two weeks, if market continue up then the prospect of march or april rate hike will be open again. in fact FED has no choice then. that would however initiate another round of capital flight in emerging market and another round of market sell-off.

conclusion: roller coaster mode.

I happen to agree with this.

Good ADP numbers today & construction spending and auto sales yesterday, oil stabilizing (they have voiced that oil prices are transient) and an improving market would seem to put the feds credibility at risk if they don't raise. Assuming that is there plan, I wonder if we will see them float some trial balloons between now and their meeting as to not catch the market completely off guard. I think I read this AM that the market is pricing in only a 10% chance of a rate hike.

first trial balloon away! http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-f ... sinessNews

[MrMiyagi]

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Conspiracy theorists will soon come out.

[JFR]

Another push at the top.

[fehro]

SPX 1985-88 Jan 7 gap.. soo sooo close.. SPX/RUT new HOD.. but NDX still red..

[Tutti]

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Conspiracy theorists will soon come out.

Just read local sheriff says it has the look of a suicide. For his families sake it was oddly a smart play. if he isn't convicted, he isn't guilty and I believe his family can't be tried civilly. Family gets to keep the money. I could be totally wrong though.

[JFR]

Fail. Once again.

[Trades with cats]

Wave Counters- Coolbizone just tweeted that he sees a down then up to finish this wave 2 around March 30 to April 11 time frame. Fits my thinking as that is when we enter the buyback 30 day prior to earnings quiet time.

[brokebybernacke2]

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Conspiracy theorists will soon come out.

a 2013 tahoe?? is that what 1.2 billion gets these days??

[MrMiyagi]

A 2013 tahoe?? is that what 1.2 billion gets these days??

Sounds like he was frugal.

[josephli]

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

"Just one day after the DOJ unveiled its had indicted Chesapeake Founder and former CEO Aubrey McClendon on federal charges of conspiring to rig bids for oil and natural gas leases, moments ago the Oklahoma Police announced that he was found dead in a car accident, when while traveling in a 2013 Chevy Tahoe at a high rate of speed he crashed while driving on a two-lane highway and was engulfed in flames."

Conspiracy

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/03 ... ay-update/

[Out of Bounds]

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Conspiracy theorists will soon come out.

Just read local sheriff says it has the look of a suicide. For his families sake it was oddly a smart play. if he isn't convicted, he isn't guilty and I believe his family can't be tried civilly. Family gets to keep the money. I could be totally wrong though.

His estate can be sued in civil court.

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Thursday tomorrow has been bull friendly, thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[K447]

a 2013 tahoe?? is that what 1.2 billion gets these days??

Wouldn't want to mess up the good cars, would you?

[fehro]

SPX 1985-88 Jan 7 gap.. soo sooo close.. SPX/RUT new HOD.. but NDX still red..

testing gap..

[MrMiyagi]

Intraday NYMO now at +93.05, day high. VIX day low 16.91.

[TraderJoe]

Moody’s Cuts Credit Outlook on Chinese SOEs, Financial Firms

Moody’s Investors Service cut its credit-rating outlook on China’s largest phone company and its biggest banks after doing the same to the country’s government.
The credit assessor reduced the outlook on 38 state-owned enterprises including China Mobile Ltd. to negative, it said in a Thursday statement, a day after cutting 25 non-insurance financial firms’ outlook to negative from stable. The financial institutions include Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd., Moody’s said.

Read more;
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... firms-soes

[daytradingES]

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/03/2016
US 0730 ET Feb Challenger job cuts, Jan +41.6% y/y.
0830 ET Weekly initial unemployment claims expected -2,000 to 270,000, previous +10,000 to 272,000. Weekly continuing claims expected -3,000 to 2.250 million, previous -19,000 to 2.253 million.
0830 ET Revised Q4 non-farm productivity expected -3.0%, previous -3.0%. Revised Q4 unit labor costs expected +4.3%, previous +4.5%.
0830 ET USDA weekly Export Sales.
0945 ET Revised Feb Markit services PMI expected +0.2 to 50.0, preliminary-Feb -3.4 to 49.8. Revised Feb Markit composite PMI, preliminary -3.1 to 50.1.
1000 ET Feb ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected -0.4 to 53.1, Jan -2.3 to 53.5.
1000 ET Jan factory orders expected +2.1%, Dec -2.9% and -0.8% ex-transportation.
1045 ET Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan delivers a speech at the University of Texas in Austin.
1100 ET Treasury announces amount of 3-year T-notes (previous $24 billion), 10-year T-notes (previous $23 billion) and 30-year T-bonds (previous $15 billion) to be auctioned Mar 8-10.
UK 0200 ET UK Feb nationwide house prices expected +0.4% m/m and +4.9% y/y, Jan +0.3% m/m and +4.4% y/y.
0330 ET UK Feb Halifax house prices expected unch m/m and +10.4% 3-month y/y, Jan +1.7% m/m and +9.7% 3-months y/y.
0430 ET UK Feb Markit/CIPS serviced PMI expected -0.5 to 55.1, Jan 55.6.
GER 0355 ET Revised German Feb Markit services PMI, preliminary +0.1 to 55.1.
EUR 0400 ET Revised Eurozone Feb composite PMI, preliminary -0.9 to 52.7.
0500 ET Eurozone Jan retail sales expected +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y, Dec +0.3% m/m and +1.4% y/y.
JPN 2030 ET Japan Jan labor cash earnings expected +0.4% y/y, Dec unch y/y. Jan real cash earnings, Dec -0.1% y/y.

[daytradingES]

Initial claims in the February 27 week 6,000 higher to 278,000


Nonfarm productivity - Q/Q change - SAAR -2.2 %
Unit labor costs - Q/Q change - SAAR 3.3 %


pmi 53.2