Coolbizone, who nailed the Feb low in CL on twitter posted four targets at the time. This week he has gone short saying he did not think his last target of 42 would be reached.
Here is his Feb chart.
There is too much oil for the current world demand. If the economy picks up suddenly that could change. So with a large oversupply that isn't going away anytime soon why have prices spiked up as they do periodically in bear markets. I don't know, but there sure is a lot of news and speculation.
Politically it has been confirmed that the Fed did have several major banks meet with the oil companies last month in Dallas to discuss things. It has been shown that this bounce is being used to reduce bank debt and replace it with equity or new junk bonds with low priority claims on assets. The opinion is that the big banks would rather burn some customers who are buying toxic equity than end up as debtors in possession.
It was reported today that shale drillers are being slow to lock in prices on the futures market. At the same time it is being said that at somewhere between 40 and 50 new supply will come on line. It has never been proven that shale drillers have any ability to predict the market.
Uptick in Chinese demand is supposedly because the teapots (small coastal privately owned refiners) are finally being allowed to export product so they are running flat out. But that should be a one time event, not an increasing source of demand as some analysts are mis-interpreting.
It is a given that we are into refinery shut downs so storage numbers are less meaningful. At the same time the industry is thinking americans will be driving a lot this summer.
We are moving into the monthly contract roll where the sharks feed on the ETFs and it should be especially bloody with the huge increase in front month by the etfs. At the same time it looks like the CTAs have capitulated and greatly reduced their shorts.