06/08/2016 Live Update

[Trades with cats]

TF confirming morning buying is over for now. Looking at London close then Oil report as catalysts to build a right shoulder.

[wanteasymoney]

buls will sequezed again you fools, highs is the only way

[fehro]

SPX key time.. at gap, at neckline.. VIX spikes

[Out of Bounds]

Do you wait for VIX to (quoting zero hedge) "be clubbed like a baby seal" as it has been almost daily by some unknown big treader?

VIX could be on the verge of a rally

[fehro]

SPX green, VIX green, TLT green

[Trades with cats]

If Goldman is correct and we get a serious summer correction they won't be using the VIX to hold up the market, so I agree it will be unshackled. Nassim Taleb has shown repeatedly that when "they" artificially suppress routine volatility it doesn't go away, it just stores up and then eventually explodes. The trick is to find a vehicle that minimises losses while waiting for the explosion.

[K447]

If Goldman is correct and we get a serious summer correction they won't be using the VIX to hold up the market, so I agree it will be unshackled. Nassim Taleb has shown repeatedly that when "they" artificially suppress routine volatility it doesn't go away, it just stores up and then eventually explodes.

The trick is to find a vehicle that minimises losses while waiting for the explosion.

Do you have a recommendation?

[fehro]

SPX.. couldn't crack support.. bouncy bounce RUT new HOD

[fehro]

yeah.. still fishy… add a little more here. .short.. with tight stop

[Trades with cats]

Ahw, oil report blew out my right shoulder on the TF, now going for the double top.

This write up includes all the DOE charts.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-0 ... -most-2016

As expected continuing crude draws. As they said production picks up for the first time in 18 months (Stan Druckenmiller said in a speech " I have never met a Texan who isn't ready to dig a hole in the ground with other peoples money"). Surprise was gasoline and distillate inventory went up. So my conundrum over exer expanding gasoline usage when retail sales are off is resolved, gasoline usage isn't really increasing at a record pace, it was a seasonal aboration.

Still, the report is an excellent reason to launch the stop hunting algos. How many weeks have we seen this game plan?

[Trades with cats]

K447 I am clueless (just ask my wife) but if you come up with something please share.
My first guess would be to short a leveraged short volatility ETF, that way if volatility stays flat you benefit from the decay of the fund. Risk is the Feds are working towards banning the levered ETFs. Second risk is that the big boys may have driven volatility futures premiums way up insuring their portfolios. I say that because Goldman says defensive stocks have already had a large run so that says they are already positioning for stormy weather just leaving a few crumbs behind for retail.

[wanteasymoney]

Oh my good markert is a crash really common these frezkin quite all here in my floor are all in in these bull yo tje news highs lets go 2500

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/06 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Oh my good markert is a crash really common these frezkin quite all here in my floor are all in in these bull yo tje news highs lets go 2500

Goldman called for a correction 30 days ago and we got the new high. So you could be right with Goldman again calling for a correction. But be very clear, if you see Time magazine, Fortune or the Economist running a cover with a bull on it it will be time to get out!

[Royal Flush]

Risk is the Feds are working towards banning the levered ETFs.

WTF! Where did you hear that?

[fehro]

grasping.. but .. fwiw.. stall here at "possible" red channel.. "possible" diamond.. SPY 5m … "lower high" .. "IF" it sticks.

or triangle.. red

[BullBear52x]

a support at mid BB on hourly were too strong for bears to break. (/ES)

SPX channel, the "If" factor.

[fehro]

NDX 8 days sideways… TLT up

[uempel]

BPs all positive except BPNDX - two large cap techs switched to "sell" ... But the important part is that BPNYA, BPSPX and BPCOMPQ are gaining strength.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

[sleeman]

I can see further take downs this aft, but not enough to break significant barriers. This wedge is playing out higher than I thought. Still 5 trading days before June 15th.