06/24/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

vol surge, biggest red bar, so might be a rebound here first then we'll see.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:30 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/06 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

SPY. Down. Support level for the time being.

[Daniel]

SPX is down 70.

That is exactly what the SP futures were down, -70, when the BBC called the vote for Leaving, last night.

[Wallstreetrader]

Hs number is 2015, Bear Flag is1931 timw to short and hold good weekend to everyones.

[JFR]

The S&P and the Cable are hanging in there for now. And then comes ... Monday. Hmmmm ... We will see.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:53 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/06 ... ay-update/

[Daniel]

XRT hod

[Cobra]

just to let you know that our weekly sentiment poll was right AGAIN!
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2077

[Daniel]

Before the close, a stat courtesy of JG (Sentimentrader)

"Of the 17 times the SPY gapped down 3%, the best results were from the Open to 4 days later: up 14 times, with an avg gain of 6.5%."

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Monday has been generally bull friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread.

as usual, right after the close, I'll open a weekly sentiment poll. So far the polls predict the market very well. Keep up good work guys!


before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Daniel]

IBB, SMH, KRE, XBD closing at dead LOD.

[Cobra]

Our weekly sentiment poll is here. Thanks for the vote!
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2085

[Out of Bounds]

I saw two traders pretty much go broke today playing forex.
I am pretty sure anther guy who is a heavy hitter went into negative equity in the futures market. He just left a forum and deleted his account. Not answering his phone.
I saw his position and he was very bullish. I think he went all in when the market stabilized this morning - I assume it was near the top.

I scalped a bit this afternoon and did well but it was really just easy money by then.

*cocktails*
CHEERS!

[MrMiyagi]

SPY 33 pBars up to $210.85

[Zane]

SPY 33 pBars up to $210.85

Miyagi, your Pbar is just another method of Dark Pool?

If these P-bars are what they say it is

""These are late dark pool prints since the market opened below these prints and never have traded there today, but it did trade there yesterday. The SEC rules allow the dark pool prints to be reported up to 24 hours later if they are traded overseas … this also allows the party (selling or buying) to hide their action/trades from everyone else. Someone big sold at the top yesterday so this is bearish …""


then how come it will be hit later ? I don't get the correlation here....

[Zane]

wouldn't it be a really bearish sign if the Pbar shows massive sells at the highs?

[QED]

wouldn't it be a really bearish sign if the Pbar shows massive sells at the highs?

Yes, it is VERY bearish!

As to your other question: “… then how come it will be hit later ? I don't get the correlation here.”

In theory, “Big Payer #1” would sell at the top to a market maker or another party with deep pockets (call this party: “Big Payer #2”). Now, “Big Payer #2” is not exactly thrilled to be holding the bag, but has money and staying power to hold on until the market moves back in their direction. In fact if it is the “right” party that is left holding the bag, they actually “help” the market move back towards their position. This is why the market frequently (but not always) hits these p-bars within a reasonable amount of time.

Of course that is just my educated guess. As always, I could be wrong.

[Zane]

wouldn't it be a really bearish sign if the Pbar shows massive sells at the highs?

Yes, it is VERY bearish!

As to your other question: “… then how come it will be hit later ? I don't get the correlation here.”

In theory, “Big Payer #1” would sell at the top to a market maker or another party with deep pockets (call this party: “Big Payer #2”). Now, “Big Payer #2” is not exactly thrilled to be holding the bag, but has money and staying power to hold on until the market moves back in their direction. In fact if it is the “right” party that is left holding the bag, they actually “help” the market move back towards their position. This is why the market frequently (but not always) hits these p-bars within a reasonable amount of time.

Of course that is just my educated guess. As always, I could be wrong.

so to analyze this Pbar, if it is below the price, it can be considered as bullish; but if it is above the price, then it is bearish.....well, i just hope this 210 will get hit.....doubted it will......

[QED]

wouldn't it be a really bearish sign if the Pbar shows massive sells at the highs?

Yes, it is VERY bearish!

As to your other question: “… then how come it will be hit later ? I don't get the correlation here.”

In theory, “Big Payer #1” would sell at the top to a market maker or another party with deep pockets (call this party: “Big Payer #2”). Now, “Big Payer #2” is not exactly thrilled to be holding the bag, but has money and staying power to hold on until the market moves back in their direction. In fact if it is the “right” party that is left holding the bag, they actually “help” the market move back towards their position. This is why the market frequently (but not always) hits these p-bars within a reasonable amount of time.

Of course that is just my educated guess. As always, I could be wrong.

so to analyze this Pbar, if it is below the price, it can be considered as bullish; but if it is above the price, then it is bearish.....well, i just hope this 210 will get hit.....doubted it will......

The $210.85 dark pool/p-bars could represent long stock that was unloaded or shares that were sold short. There really is no way of knowing when or at what price that they would either enter long again or cover their short sale.

Nonetheless, the market could recover within days, weeks or take months to do so.

All that is certain is that someone made a very large bearish bet that the market was going to move down after the BREXIT vote. It did, and they were right. If the entity on the other side of the trade was a market maker, then they were well hedged.

Sometime in the future the market will move up and we will begin to see dark pool prints and p-bars below that days price, but still in the price range of the prior days action. That will be bullish.

MrMiyagi looks at the p-bars differently. A high percentage of the ones that he tracks are hit within ten (10) days. Therefore, if I understand his methodology correctly, he looks at p-bars above price as a bullish and the ones below the price as bearish.

It also seems to work … so who really knows?

I hope this helps. Trade safe!