10/08/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money no big move but remains huge long so it's kind of case 2.), at least no big pullback insight yet?


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming proves we're simply in a range, i.e. going nowhere.

[Cobra]

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2206

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2200&p=230796#p230796

[Cobra]

The next week's stock picks are here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2208&p=230798#p230798

[Royal Flush]

2 weeks ago the Large Spec. & Commercials switched places on the CAD COT chart in a large shift in their positions to a bearish stance. They have both slightly added to their positions this week. Today we saw a new high of 1.33 USDCAD. I expect to see 1.35 USDCAD in the near future. What is strange is the lack of correlation between the CAD and oil. CL is returning to it's prior highs but the CAD is making new lows.

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[Al_Dente]

GDX is testing its 200 dma, after retracing 50% of the run from Jan to Aug
Tuesday’s exhaustion volume was followed by two days of lower price lows on diminished volume, showing that the sell-volume is drying up, which is a classic bottoming formation on volume.
May be good for a bounce up to the descending trendline.

[Trades with cats]

Here is Colbiz1 twitter post from Oct 5. He is on your page Boss. I respect his Elliot Wave counts because unlike most counters he trades them! He was calling for minimum 1245, possible 1225 or even 1205.

[Trades with cats]

Black Gold- The Longer View

Wow! What an amazing couple of weeks. We have been watching a master con artist work a crowd, it is truly awe inspiring. And the best part is the crowd knows they are being conned but they go along anyway. Goldman warned us at the beginning, and now others are showing the charts that prove their position. The Saudis are facing a seasonal decline in production. So they have offered to give up something they were going to give up with or without a deal. To make the deal look good they offered their enemies what they wanted, a free pass to keep ramping until they are back at full production. And they threw in Libya and Nigeria while they were at it.

The icing on the cake is no real negotiations until later in November. So a couple of months with the world eagerly awaiting press releases spurring the algos on to greater and greater buying. If you are eating your seed corn, or as my British son-in-law would say 'dipping into your principle'. this was a brilliant strategy to buy some time.

The show stopper has been the US weekly supply estimates. For whatever reason (I am not a paid subscriber to a service so I do not know) we had a draw instead of a build and I am confident the same will happen next week. What a coincidence that we have had killer hurricanes running around the Atlantic basin. I think you don't get to be the captain of a 120 million dollar tanker loaded with 2 million barrels of crude if you don't know what you are doing, and sailing into a hurricane is not a good thing. Remember the unfortunate freighter they lost last season going to Puerto Rico.

Eventually the contracted for cargos will be delivered, the crisis gas sales in the south east will end and the normal seasonal pattern will re-assert. At some point some big traders will start the news cycle going in the other direction. Reuters and Bloomberg will show us that the US rig count has been inching up for months, that the frackers have raised something like 20 billion this year to drill the Permian and any other sweet spot. They will be truly excited about how the costs have dropped and they are profitable at $45 or whatever. They will talk about the DUC's (drilled Un Completed) and then they will show us the proposed cuts are just a little short of balancing supply and demand. At that point the longs will figure out that North American producers will be a primary beneficiary of the gulf states cutting because they will be increasing. AND there are two jokers in the deck. First the Chinese strategic reserve. A some point, unless they can print money and weld tanks faster than the tankers arrive to fill them they will stop their reserve buying. The second joker is a slowing world economy damping down demand growth.

There are two things that shape my thinking. First as a fractional owner of conventional natural gas wells I have seen what fracking has done to reshape that market. NatGas was 12 to 15, now it is 2 to 4 per thousand while demand has gone straight up. It isn't identical to the oil market, so call it a black parakeet instead of a black swan. The second thing was a column by Gary Shilling in Forbes decades ago. He said state ownership of natural resource extraction industries was a long term problem. Politicians let the country become dependent on the money. When prices drop they do not cut back (see big oil cap ex budgets slashed by 25 to 50% again this year) instead they increase production because they have to have a certain level of revenue to spend or else. What will happen to Norway's social welfare state when they finally run out of oil money. Well the headline today is they are going to eat seed corn rather than cut benefits. Ask Venezuela how that works out.

Given that major players have different motivations, disruptive new technologies, marginal demand based on world economic growth, pricing in a single currency (now being challenged) weather and finally a government subsidized challenge from new tech (go to any auto show) and you have a really dynamic market. Whats not to love for a trader !

[fehro]

INDEXes Weekly and Daily Candles. Dailies a tad weak on under 50d SMA.. NYSE weakest. VIX holds 50d, with GLD/TLT holding 200d SMA. Weeklies TLT/GLD look awful.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Rolling over to the swing sell side.

[fehro]

Yields

[Shaishen]

CL is returning to it's prior highs but the CAD is making new lows.

Perhaps market anticipates a slowing Can economy due to new housing/mortgage/foreign buyers regulations.
In an effort to comfort complaining priced out of the market home buyers the new measurements the Can gov wants to and will implement might be viewed as negative for the Can economy (less high paying construction jobs, less property tax collection, less attractive to foreign capital)

`

[BullBear52x]

From it is what it is department,

Weakening, 3rd and a half time charm

[BullBear52x]

$WTIC and $USD can not go in the same direction forever, per moving averages, $WTIC is stronger, USD might be topping or break up to crash the oil.

Weekly is bullish bias on $WTIC and at a third time charm resistance level, so....this week media headlines will be focusing on king green back and oil for sure. critical juncture it is.

[BullBear52x]

OIL level top watch is 6.5, a breakout will take her to 12ish in the long term view, sooo.........something to keep an eye on. Peace!

[daytradingES]

Here an ES chart.
(we've in a sideways channel? - well duh ES daytrading - that's the best you've got?)
Well it is what it is. So this chart doesn't have much value except to channel traders.

[Al_Dente]

Once again semiconductors are epic stretched above the 200dma
That kind of gravity-defying behaviour is problematic

[Al_Dente]

MCCLELLAN:
Big Drops Do Not Mark Final Gold Bottoms:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... d_bottoms/