11/29/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX .. nibble sm short here.. not ideal… maybe a tad early. 60m has a little more from, next candle

[Mr. BachNut]

BachNut back from the holiday post.

The NYMO cycle may have turned from up to down.
It put in a high on 11/22 and appears to be rolling over.
It fell short of reaching the turn zone, which is a surprise given how powerful the price thrust has been.
While it could still make a higher high into the turn zone, history would suggest that it is unlikely.
This powerful price thrust has simply lacked the breadth of prior big thrusts.
Blowoff top in progress? I don't know, but under the hood the bull is not as strong as it appears to be.

I have only one possible up target on the radar at the upper keltner band though there is also now an unclosed gap at the Friday close.
Asymmetry is leaning to the downside as there are a bunch of possible down targets. The ones above the 200 day MA look the most interesting.
I would like to see a retest of Friday's high with a negative NYMO divergence to set up a move, but let's see what happens.
Recent kick-off thrusts have not resulted in price rolling over but have set the stage for price continuing higher.
That could happen here too. Currency appears to be a big driver here with yen correlation being particularly salient. So I am watching that too.

I am flat.
My R2K short was idiotic and stopped out for a loss. Fought the trend and got run over.
I kept position size small in the wake of the election which helped, but I did not have a legitimate setup and just fired from the hip. Bad trading plain and simple.
[Philosophical side note - Because I have made so many mistakes trading over the years and continue to make mistakes, I have had to learn to forgive myself instead of beating myself up all the time.
One side benefit of this is that I have gotten so good at it it has made it a bit easier for me to forgive others when mistakes get made.]
I anticipate my next trade will be a short.

[brokebybernacke2]

interesting chart courtesy crystal bull....note 1977 fed began rate hikes in earnest...

https://www.crystalbull.com/stock-marke ... ent-chart/#

[Shaishen]

Positive D. but I am not buying this one.

too bad was a good signal, slow grinding up for the last hour, no decent chance to hop on.

`

[te_fern]

The Summation Index is moving up on a daily basis and VIX is still low.

[DellGriffith]

I actually got a buy signal this morning. Unfortunately, as has happened so many times this year, the buy signal occurred during my commute to work so I missed it (again).

If only I quit my job and sat at my computer at home full time, I could afford to not work!

[Cobra]

pullback probably will be bought.

[BullBear52x]

Positive D. but I am not buying this one.

too bad was a good signal, slow grinding up for the last hour, no decent chance to hop on.

`

well, I missed that counter trend was out side doing something.

[fehro]

SPX .. nibble sm short here.. not ideal… maybe a tad early. 60m has a little more from, next candle

yup early.. resistance.. close SPX.. VIX holding on to support

[BullBear52x]

looks familiar? well, bear no more. find excuse to buy

anyways buy the net dip will tell if this reversal is for real.

[BullBear52x]

short term first counter trend sell. critical juncture, messy on intraday.

[BullBear52x]

new game plan.

I was busy trading something else today but now I am back to focus on /ES.

[fehro]

they are pushing NDX hard.. trying to make a nATH just 17 points short.. COMPQ nATH

[Shaishen]

Unusual times, like yesterday ES broke both ONlow and ONhigh also today. As per FT71 stats breaking both during RTH session happens 24% of the time.
Right now not sure how this info can help other than it is very unlikely the same scenario will happen again tomorrow

`

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:10 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/11 ... ay-update/

[MrMiyagi]

spy

232.png (11 KiB) Viewed 8383 times

[Al_Dente]

Unusual times, like yesterday ES broke both ONlow and ONhigh also today. As per FT71 stats breaking both during RTH session happens 24% of the time. Right now not sure how this info can help other than it is very unlikely the same scenario will happen again tomorrow`

What does this mean:
"ON" (overnight??)
"FT71"
"RTH"
??
thanks

[Shaishen]

Unusual times, like yesterday ES broke both ONlow and ONhigh also today. As per FT71 stats breaking both during RTH session happens 24% of the time. Right now not sure how this info can help other than it is very unlikely the same scenario will happen again tomorrow`

What does this mean:
"ON" (overnight??)
"FT71"
"RTH"
??
thanks

ON = yes overnight high low (Globex session)
RTH = Regular Trading Hours

FT71 = futurestrader71 dot com the best free education for futures trading

-

[uempel]

232.png

Miyagi, now that's a nice target. SPY down to 213 by mid-December and then a year-end rally

[tsf]

My thanks to you and other experienced traders for sharing your war stories.
It really helps people who are still learning.

BachNut back from the holiday post.

The NYMO cycle may have turned from up to down.
It put in a high on 11/22 and appears to be rolling over.
It fell short of reaching the turn zone, which is a surprise given how powerful the price thrust has been.
While it could still make a higher high into the turn zone, history would suggest that it is unlikely.
This powerful price thrust has simply lacked the breadth of prior big thrusts.
Blowoff top in progress? I don't know, but under the hood the bull is not as strong as it appears to be.

I have only one possible up target on the radar at the upper keltner band though there is also now an unclosed gap at the Friday close.
Asymmetry is leaning to the downside as there are a bunch of possible down targets. The ones above the 200 day MA look the most interesting.
I would like to see a retest of Friday's high with a negative NYMO divergence to set up a move, but let's see what happens.
Recent kick-off thrusts have not resulted in price rolling over but have set the stage for price continuing higher.
That could happen here too. Currency appears to be a big driver here with yen correlation being particularly salient. So I am watching that too.

I am flat.
My R2K short was idiotic and stopped out for a loss. Fought the trend and got run over.
I kept position size small in the wake of the election which helped, but I did not have a legitimate setup and just fired from the hip. Bad trading plain and simple.
[Philosophical side note - Because I have made so many mistakes trading over the years and continue to make mistakes, I have had to learn to forgive myself instead of beating myself up all the time.
One side benefit of this is that I have gotten so good at it it has made it a bit easier for me to forgive others when mistakes get made.]
I anticipate my next trade will be a short.