02/03/2017 Live Update

[fehro]

SPX into gap… some "possible" resistance.. "should" fill upper gap to 2295.

ding ding gap filled 2295 try a sm short here.

[BullBear52x]

88 ES is new stop on the long side, I am sitting out for now.

[jademann]

This bear is ruined. I have no more cash left to play the game now so I'm out.

I guess they will have to find other money to use to push the market up now, good luck all.

[Al_Dente]

Note: Macy’s (M) halted, resumed, up > 7% today, takeover possible by Hudson's Bay

[K447]

This bear is ruined. I have no more cash left to play the game now so I'm out.

I guess they will have to find other money to use to push the market up now, good luck all.

Do not be bear or bull. Learn, think, learn some more, practice (plan, paper trade, review), observe.

Consider what approaches will work for you going forward.

I wish you well.

[Al_Dente]

Tech, Big Five, daily, with bolingers set at 50 not 20

[Cobra]

likely an uptrend day today

[fehro]

Markets green, gold green, and bonds green, someone is lyin'

[BullBear52x]

For bears today, sell on the failed support only don't fight it.

Market is ripe for a short but how long can you stay sober?

/ES 88

[icman]

Thursday/Friday of the pre-opex week (basically next week) often offers some pullbacks.

[Daniel]

This bear is ruined. I have no more cash left to play the game now so I'm out.

I guess they will have to find other money to use to push the market up now, good luck all.

This is sad news.

But, as Cobra has preached for many years, going back as far as I can remember, as techical analysts we follow. We follow. We are the humblest of men and women, we follow. The market tells us. We try to hear and understand as early as possible. And then we follow.

BullBear52 is a master of using countertrend pullbacks as a hedging instrument to his longer term models. But he too always emphasizes that the primary trend is one's friend. One cannot be a bear on US equities right now by any meaningful metric, not with price pushing alltime highs in favorable seasonality, and the XBD and BKK (broker/dealer and banking indexes) also near record highs. The MAs tell us a story, and the insiders echo it. At most, one can be market neutral.

Over-valuation or under-valuation can go on far longer than we can remain solvent.

[Al_Dente]

[BullBear52x]

First this bear go counter trend, and failed.

second wait for the support to fail to even try again, forget the next and next Negative D.

[Mr. BachNut]

BachNut Friday post. Ping Pong Edition.

The NYMO Cycle has gone trendless and rectangular.
The model says it is down until it is up but look what has unfolded since Jan. 11.
We have been bouncing in a box producing barely lower highs and barely higher lows all fluctuations about the zero line.
It is not directional. The model would suggest this will probably resolve down, but I don't think there is much edge at this point.

Pricewise, Monday completed the potential island top, and this morning we have a sizeable gap up... island bottom?
The word flaky comes to mind. As we know, much action unfolds in the overnight market, but it gives the look of going nowhere fast and dramatically.
That said, the price drop on Monday hit one down target but failed to close another gap just below before firming up. We have closed the island gap as I write.
Moving averages are trending up. Price rules, and bulls have recaptured the ball.
Shorts are trapped below. Formerly trapped longs can get out of jail free or hold. Today's close may be a tell on what they decide.
I still have a nice collection of targets below... waiting. We've hit an up target this morning that can extend up to the upper keltner.
I have marked a plausible ending diagonal, wedge sort of thing in magenta. If it is for real, we are now in a final upthrust before breakdown. Just a possibility.

I am flat.
I was net short last Friday carrying shorts and longs. Longs were stopped out Monday. Shorts were scaled Monday and closed Tuesday. All in small positive.
I tried to reload short but the failure to follow through and NFP today had me go to the sidelines from where I now watch.

I am clueless as usual. Absent a clean setup, I guess failure to make new highs followed by break of yesterday's low would have me short.
A retest of yesterday's close or breakout up with the NYMO cycle turning up would get me long.
Basically looks like I am out of business until next week.
Plan to do nothing today... except the beer part later.

[fehro]

SPX into gap… some "possible" resistance.. "should" fill upper gap to 2295.

ding ding gap filled 2295 try a sm short here.

going for the target, 2300ish.. VIX flat ish

[Al_Dente]

Google Trends [grain of salt]
How about google searches re: the recent news that the Dow had finally hit 20,000? Did that spark broad interest in the stock market or the Dow Jones Industrial Average? The answer:
... American public interest in searches for the “Stock market” and “Dow Jones” has picked up since 2015 by almost 30% as compared to 2012-2014. A piece of this is the incremental interest when market volatility hits (August 2015 and November 2016 are the best examples).
... That said, breaching the 20,000 mark did nothing for Google search volumes for either term. This may not be “The most hated rally of all time”, as much of the 2009-2016 move was called, but it may well be “the most ignored rally of all time”.

Conclusion [grain of salt]: Google Trends tell us that there isn’t enough attention focused on the US stock market to be worried that we are in a “Bubble”.

[BullBear52x]

up the long stop to /es 90.5

I am not buying yet too overbought wait for clockworks dip if it will ever come. my plan is to sell the next failed support and buy back on the following dip. Evil Plan

[jademann]

This bear is ruined. I have no more cash left to play the game now so I'm out.

I guess they will have to find other money to use to push the market up now, good luck all.

This is sad news.

But, as Cobra has preached for many years, going back as far as I can remember, as techical analysts we follow. We follow. We are the humblest of men and women, we follow. The market tells us. We try to hear and understand as early as possible. And then we follow.

BullBear52 is a master of using countertrend pullbacks as a hedging instrument to his longer term models. But he too always emphasizes that the primary trend is one's friend. One cannot be a bear on US equities right now by any meaningful metric, not with price pushing alltime highs in favorable seasonality, and the XBD and BKK (broker/dealer and banking indexes) also near record highs. The MAs tell us a story, and the insiders echo it. At most, one can be market neutral.

Over-valuation or under-valuation can go on far longer than we can remain solvent.

I did not have time to day trade so I was only look for swing trades. I didn't get one for months so its over for me. Same thing happened to me in 2001.

[uempel]

Chart only shows monthly momentum of SPX. Nothing (yet) suggests a reversal.

[Al_Dente]

NY advancing stocks = 3.7 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 3.1 x declining volume

NY advancing stocks = 4 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 3.6 x declining volume