03/01/2017 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

The front-month short VIX futures (XIV) diverge
5m

[Al_Dente]

zh is reporting MCD halted
[needs corroboration]
MCD is 4.2% of the dow

[Junior Buffett]

the way it is proceeding, we will see 2400 today...super express...

[BullBear52x]

Bulls said nope, not gonna give in today not even a handle.

[BullBear52x]

After 28 points gain, never thought there will be a chase up, but.....it is what it is eh?

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B here checking in.

The NYMO cycle looks like it may be down!?!?
I would like to see a little more to confirm.
For some time, we have been bobbling around the zero line while price does what it wants.
In any case, I have a possible cycle high at Feb. 13 with a benchmark SPX at 2331.58.
Since then NYMO has been divergent to price... but it has not mattered.

Price made another big gap up this morning and is well above my upper keltner band.
This bull from the February 2016 low has been defined by unclosed gaps, which are many...
I have only blue sky in terms of up targets, but SPX 2,400 may be a magnet.
There are so many potential down targets that it is kind of absurd.
Until there is a change in character, there is not much value in handicapping any of them.

When there is a lot of white space between price and the upper keltner, a reconnect is certain and at times sudden.
Looking at prior occurrences, what happens after the reconnect can shape in different ways.
Loosely speaking we are looking at a trip to one of a) between the upper and middle keltner, b) the middle keltner or c) the lower keltner.
Time will tell, but the lower keltner, which is rising, is not likely to break without a lot more chart development.
So, the 200 day moving average is comfortably below and not in play until further notice.
Quite bullish but anticipate some corrective action ahead.

Today, I believe the Snapchat IPO is pricing. I think.
I believe history would show that some important market highs have occurred near large, high profile IPOs, perhaps as a tell on sentiment.
So, something to watch. I am keen to see how the week closes.

I am flat with no setups in equities.
While the index may continue squeezing to the upside near term, the asymmetry remains to the downside.
It is a bullish tape that does not pullback enough to provide attractive long entries and won't break down enough to provide attractive short entries.
That will change at some point.

[Al_Dente]

zh is reporting MCD halted
[needs corroboration]
MCD is 4.2% of the dow

McDonald's shares halted ahead of investor presentation [CNBC]
…it prepares to share its growth plans during its investor day in Chicago... [yahoo news]

[brokebybernacke2]

Mr. B here checking in.

The NYMO cycle looks like it may be down!?!?
I would like to see a little more to confirm.
For some time, we have been bobbling around the zero line while price does what it wants.
In any case, I have a possible cycle high at Feb. 13 with a benchmark SPX at 2331.58.
Since then NYMO has been divergent to price... but it has not mattered.

Price made another big gap up this morning and is well above my upper keltner band.
This bull from the February 2016 low has been defined by unclosed gaps, which are many...
I have only blue sky in terms of up targets, but SPX 2,400 may be a magnet.
There are so many potential down targets that it is kind of absurd.
Until there is a change in character, there is not much value in handicapping any of them.

When there is a lot of white space between price and the upper keltner, a reconnect is certain and at times sudden.
Looking at prior occurrences, what happens after the reconnect can shape in different ways.
Loosely speaking we are looking at a trip to one of a) between the upper and middle keltner, b) the middle keltner or c) the lower keltner.
Time will tell, but the lower keltner, which is rising, is not likely to break without a lot more chart development.
So, the 200 day moving average is comfortably below and not in play until further notice.
Quite bullish but anticipate some corrective action ahead.

Today, I believe the Snapchat IPO is pricing. I think.
I believe history would show that some important market highs have occurred near large, high profile IPOs, perhaps as a tell on sentiment.
So, something to watch. I am keen to see how the week closes.

I am flat with no setups in equities.
While the index may continue squeezing to the upside near term, the asymmetry remains to the downside.
It is a bullish tape that does not pullback enough to provide attractive long entries and won't break down enough to provide attractive short entries.
That will change at some point.

Interesting, thanks mr b..
short term, we have a debt ceiling vote coming up, do believe they will extend and pretend till mid summer, could lead to some chop and pull back for this market to take a breather.

longer term, for sure, the retail crowd getting pulled in, lots of 401k chatter at my work, reminds me of 2006/7 a bit, so my opinion is that this year is it for the makings of a big top, really has that feel who knows when it ends, but my guess 2018 is going to suck. reiterate 2400 sp start getting cautious, 2500sp hope someone left to sell to!

[champix]

Hello all,
This is a ES continuous long term chart with channels.
Hard to believe this bull will stop today, so trying to find something.
I have 2394 (yellow channel kiss) and above black channel @ about 2435.

[Junior Buffett]

[quote="BullBear52x"]Bulls said nope, not gonna give in today not even a handle.[/quote

looks to me short covering rally...all BEARS are dead now..nothing left..zip..


WE ARE NEVER EVER GOING DOWN EVERRRRRRRRR

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

maybe a little pullback here but this bull shall have legs.

[uempel]

The Trump rally reminds me of 1998 - no hard facts to support that feeling. Back in 1998 Goldilocks rally was stopped by a sudden fear that swept the market: Russia and the Asian economies might be in trouble. SPX fell 22% (only to recover a few months later).


Trump rally has gained 15% so far - at the moment no news of a storm brewing on the horizon.

[uempel]

As from where I am sitting I don't see anything like this. Cobra, you in Canada, any storm brewing?

[BullBear52x]

Bull stop keep on moving up, no end in sight just yet.

[Al_Dente]

NY advancing stocks = 2.1 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 3.2 x declining volume

NY advancing stocks = 2.3 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 3.9 x declining volume

[Junior Buffett]

damn..it is really going for 2400 today...only less than 3 points away...unbelievable ramp up...

[Cobra]

As from where I am sitting I don't see anything like this. Cobra, you in Canada, any storm brewing?

The attachment Storm.jpg is no longer available

No everything is fine and I start to dream of my yacht again. This time it has to be this one:

[Al_Dente]

options buyers surging into S&P 2,600 strike calls for December
[zh]

[uempel]

As from where I am sitting I don't see anything like this. Cobra, you in Canada, any storm brewing?

The attachment Storm.jpg is no longer available

No everything is fine and I start to dream of my yacht again. This time it has to be this one:

Very nice, great swimming pool. I imagine you sitting there, drinking tea and hosting the forum with your satellite connection.