03/29/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:05 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

triangle? which is continuation in theory but more reversal pattern nowadays

[uempel]

Hi Al, I was not aware: next to all your TA work you publish a magazine over in Europe? A journal for afficionados? You're a real whizz-kid Don't know who Betty Bossi is, but Gault Millau rings a bell: they guide us to the best pasta in town ...

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[Daniel]

Brazil, LatinAm, Bios hod

[Daniel]

UUP back in short term bullish mode.

Action is following closely to guidance, these past days, from Hunterman...

[Al_Dente]

junk is testing resistance

[Al_Dente]

Hi Al, I was not aware: next to all your TA work you publish a magazine over in Europe? A journal for afficionados? You're a real whizz-kid Don't know who Betty Bossi is, but Gault Millau rings a bell: they guide us to the best pasta in town ...

[Daniel]

15min timeframe, all majors holding above their (upslope) 20ema

[Trades with cats]

2360 ES was the minimum high before a sell down from the wave counters a couple of days ago, Looks like consolidation hoping for somebody with unlimited pockets to come in. So here we are couldn;t make it to yesterday's high after the London/Frankfort close and volume continues to decline. It is supposed to be important for the retail funds to show green at the end of the quarter, but ETF's can't play the window dressing game. Nor can they pick and choose on the way up or the way down. Just say'in.

[Trades with cats]

Waiting for something to happen here are two charts from John Kemp today. They say loudly that refineries are about where they were last year but crude inventory isn't. He has more charts (OF COURSE) showing that gasoline and distillate stockpiles are coming down and are below last year. Since Goldman has been emphasizing the significance of our ever expanding exports to Mexico I am guessing that is what is going on because the miles driven reports the last couple of months would show the opposite effect. I would add that it is logical, given several years of record car sales, that average on the road fleet mileage is up so it would follow that only steady increases in miles driven would reduce gasoline inventories.


You can see that if inventory doesn't start drawing within 4 more reports it will be time for the longs to panic,

[Cobra]

still in triangle, near the end though.

[K447]

... given several years of record car sales, that average on the road fleet mileage is up so it would follow that only steady increases in miles driven would reduce gasoline inventories.
...

Is fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet overall improving as older clunkers are junked and newer vehicles represent greater portions of the overall fleet?

Is that a modestly confounding factor for charting consumption?

[Al_Dente]

FDA approves Genentech's Ocrevus, the first drug for primary progressive form of MS.
DrugPrice is $65,000/year.
[AP]

[Trades with cats]

Fleet Milage - I have pulled a travel trailer for years and years. The mileage rating on the new trucks and SUV's is amazing given where they were. Trucks and SUV's are selling big. My old v-8 Expedition could get the same milage as the new ones, 16 or so, but only with cruse control doing 55 with a tailwind someplace flat like Ohio. We were lucky to get 11 around town. So back of the cocktail napkin looks like 25 to 35% gain in 10 years or so.
http://www.fuelly.com/car/ford/f-150

[Al_Dente]

As long as TICK is moving up, stocks can too, right?
AD still holds the bull bias, intraday
One min

[Al_Dente]

ho mama
HOD on IWM
[added: potential doub top]

[QED]

Why a lot of fancy math can’t help investors beat the market
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a- ... 2017-03-15

[Al_Dente]

Relative Strength Ratios: visual on the rotation into large caps and nasdaq, and rotation out of small caps, banks, and tran

[Trades with cats]

QED-
Thanks for the link. I think the article has a huge half truth but it is a good read and clearly states the message the street wants retail to get.

The half truth is that they keep referring to classical statistics, which of course are not valid for the stock market, even though we all do it. The two fundamental violations that I am aware of are; first there is no such thing as a Gaussian or normal distribution in the market, only fat tailed distributions, and second the price bars on our chart are not independent of the proceeding bars the way dice rolls or coin flips are.

[QED]

QED-
Thanks for the link. I think the article has a huge half truth but it is a good read and clearly states the message the street wants retail to get.

The half truth is that they keep referring to classical statistics, which of course are not valid for the stock market, even though we all do it. The two fundamental violations that I am aware of are; first there is no such thing as a Gaussian or normal distribution in the market, only fat tailed distributions, and second the price bars on our chart are not independent of the proceeding bars the way dice rolls or coin flips are.

True!