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Al Dente has recently been highlighting the multi-week woes of the junk bonds.
I've just seen a graphic of the longterm correlation between the ratio of corporate net debt to cashflow (Debt/Cashflow) and high yield bond rates over the years. In every case peaks and troughs matched. Yet this time, the ratio has been rising for months... while, until recently, JNK and HYG had been hovering near highs and their yields near lows.
Perhaps this divergence has begun to unwind, with the correlation now slowly being restored..?
Stocks have shown no signs of a persistent Risk Off mentality--rather, a buy the dip mentality has persisted. So it’s not simply a matter of junk bonds being caught up in a general risk-off rotation.
The ratios of JNK:TLT and JNK:LQD are both near 6-month lows. Rather than being the strongest sub-sector in bondland, HiYield corporate bonds are becoming the weakest.
Wow, a continuation of the overnight move (2x normal volume) to 2577.50 was expected, but not right out of the opening swing. And where are all the short covering triggers at that level? Well clearly not there after all so down we go. Could be another day full of the unexpected.
Trading plan for next year is out at the evil site, Goldman's top 10 trades for 2018. If you recall they will be keeping stats for fading Goldman's recommendations.
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I show the overnight to give context to the many twitter posts about the large cash injections of the PBoC. You can easily see that the London/Frankfurt crowd did not advance the market. Of course the New York crowd has moved it on up.
FuturesTrader71 makes note of the overnight volume when it is unusual so I do credit his free morning talk for the 2x normal today and the 3x normal yesterday.
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