Last month NYSE reported record high short interest (bullish for spy).
Bears couldn’t follow thru yest after the big rout on Friday. Small ramp up at close yest was ALL short covering. If it was real bulls buying, we would have seen evidence somewhere, like a spike in TBT/drop in TLT. We didn’t see that. Real bull buying shows when the bulls sell bonds (TBT spikes) to buy stock. They didn’t. Or they sell gold/silver to buy stocks. They didn’t.
(Money doesn’t move in a vacuum, it has to move from HERE to THERE.)
When too many shorts run for cover it can provide monster rallies, monster. Then a giant drop the minute a bad news report comes out, EU sneezes, etc., and the short covering stops, and the market is left to the bulls to hold it up… but no bulls yet … we’ll see it in the numbers.
Until VIX (fear index) calms down to below 30, and some of that excess short interest gets reduced by covering rallies, we could be in for some violent moves, BOTH WAYS. We can't be "a bear" or "a bull" in this market, just flexible, and flip from red to green when the numbers demand, and honor our stops, and follow The Cobra.
(Little spike TBT already on open today, let’s watch for follow through. But VERY slow opening).
Stale news link because short interest only reports monthly. New report should be out on the 15th. Someone please chirp when they see the new one.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-shor ... -june-2010