07/18/2018 Live Update

[Wallstreetrader]

Time to go vacation and let the longs run , cya August my friends and good trades to all

[Trades with cats]

10:30 Eastern 96% chance the 60 minute opening range will be broken- Up only and that was not much.
11 am Eastern 90% chance the low or high is in for the day. I am going with low but it is more a guess.

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:08 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/07 ... ay-update/

[te_fern]

Breaking out!

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:08 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/07 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

oil to the rescue.. /ES nears oHOD.. look for a test

May stall here

[Cobra]

the pullback probably will be bought.

[Al_Dente]

strongest today (on my narrow list):
TRAN (IYT up +2.60% intraday). [edit: UAL up +9% today, and DAL +4%]
Banks (XLF up +1.73% intraday)

[Al_Dente]

TRIVIA
TRIVIA ONLY
This is the forum for Amazon sellers:
https://sellercentral.amazon.com/forums ... PDKIKX0DER

[fehro]

Key support close...

[Al_Dente]

U.S. TREASURYS:
What we learned yesterday from the just released Treasury International Capital (TIC) update [via zh]:
China sold $6BN treasurys in April, then bought $1.2BN in May.
Japan sold $12BN treasurys in April, then bought $17.5BN in May.
Hedge funds, aka "Cayman Islands" accounts, bought for a second consecutive month, adding another $5BN.
RUSSIA: In just TWO MONTHS, Russia sold a whopping $81BN in treasurys, leaving Russia holding just $14.8BN long Treasurys in May.

Guaranteed that China is watching this development very closely

[Trades with cats]

Longer term Elliot Wave count from pretzel
Todays public comment (I am not a member so have no idea what the members only stuff is) is that the index has finally reached the inflection zone. This count assumes February was a 1 down and we have been diligently working away at an ABC pattern. SPX 2828 is his ideal wave 2 which of course means the dreaded wave three will start soon. Or he will post that bull count that has always been in the background on his charts.

He is worth listening to as he is almost as good as Cobra, but using a totally different system.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY 100th BIRTHDAY TO NELSON MANDELA
"A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens, but its lowest ones." [1995]

[te_fern]

Riding the top of the line now.....

[Trades with cats]

30 year treasuries are not exactly a money maker this year. Chair Powell got the job done yesterday and the market has priced in another 0.5% or in banker talk 50 basis point increase in Fed rates. I know they expected at least two 25 basis point increases in 2019 don't know what current consensus is. Eventually that puts pressure on the long end of the curve. With the Russians working hard with central asian countries and China moving those funds to gold makes a lot of sense.

A person who is paid to write pointed out last week that with everything that is going on (they cited Russian dumping) it is amazing 30 year treasuries have been so stable, indicating a huge demand.

Personally I think the whole thing with longer term US debt is very very complex.

[Al_Dente]

.............. With the Russians working hard with central asian countries and China moving those funds to gold makes a lot of sense. .............

thanks boss
how do you know that they are buying gold with the proceeds??

[Trades with cats]

It was reported by their treasury and reposted on the internet. Not one for one, but gold holdings were up and US treasuries we down. China and Iran love gold also. But being pragmatic the Chinese are pushing for Special Drawing Rights to replace the dollar. I don't think their version of the IMF is ready to offer their own competing Special Drawing Rights quite yet

[te_fern]

Bull flag???

[Trades with cats]

Critical observation by smart people last week. Yuan devaluations are keeping it at more or less parity with the Euro and the Yen. Both Europe and Japan are running a small trade surplus with China so supposedly that is why the PBoC is focusing there while they depreciate like crazy (over 6% this year I think) against the buck, where they run a surplus. That is why they can take the high road on tarriffs, they have already imposed them on all US dollar priced goods through the currency exchange mechanism.

[Trades with cats]

Oil, US shale has been going to Chinese tea pot refiners. We are trying to cripple Iranian exports. China is stepping up their imports of Iranian oil. Suddenly the US has a really bad week for exports. Guess those Texans need to find some new buyers.