02/20/2020 Live Update

[JFR]

ES 5. Down through 3 pivots. Bounce off S3. Back up through S2 and the EMA 20.

[Al_Dente]

megaphone = broadening top
http://thepatternsite.com/bt.html

[JFR]

GLD. Gold. Say no more.

[Al_Dente]

tech
15min

[JFR]

TLT. UUP. Safety? TLT looks schizo, but long for the time being.

[JFR]

Barron's

[te_fern]

Bouncing off this trend line....

[JFR]

Dow 30. INTC and GS, the laggards.

Dow Holdings, DOW, leading. It was founded by Herbert Henry Dow, and is distinct from the Dow 30 itself, founded by Charles Dow.

[JFR]

ES 5. Riding the pivot and the EMA 20.

[Al_Dente]

here is a recap of what some traders are saying:

Thomas Thornton, founder Hedge Fund Telemetry:

Stocks globally are trading heavy today and there doesn’t seem to be any new reason that we haven’t been living with for weeks and months. Could it be Bernie Sanders is looking more like the Democrat candidate with Mike Bloomberg’s lackluster debate performance last night? Coronavirus? Earnings? Higher USD? Again, all of this is nothing new. A Goldman Sachs analyst said market not factoring in coronavirus and lack of earnings growth and elevated market multiple. Hardly a revelation yet I agree. Back in March 2000, I remember when Abbie Joseph Cohen said something similar causing quite a pullback and ultimately a market top. There’s been a lot of evidence of excessive speculation within the options markets .... I’ve been neutral on the S&P and Nasdaq for weeks allowing the speculation to cool off and perhaps that’s what is happening to today.

Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation for Pacific Life Fund Advisors:

“We opened up OK in the U.S. with claims in line with survey and Philly Fed ahead of expectations but on the flip side we had the first coronavirus fatalities in Japan and South Korea,” he said. “It’s more of an IT and health care down day. On the former I’d say it’s due to concerns about components. South Korea especially, but also Japan, are big parts of tech hardware supply chains. So far as health care may actually be due to how strong Bernie and Warren looked yesterday at the debates.”

Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc.:

“It’s the cautionary tone from investment banks and analysts suggesting the market is too sanguine about the risk of coronavirus. When you see that underscored with gold climbing higher despite a stronger dollar and money coming into the Treasury market pushing the yield down -- that’s the market acting and suggesting there is more to go on the coronavirus,” she said. “The pullback isn’t dramatic, but it did gain some steam. I think it’s a combination of the analyst calls on it and the idea that the ramping up of manufacturing in China has begun but it’s slower than expected.”

Willie Delwiche, an investment strategist at Baird:

“The bullish case is that the viral impact would be contained -- there’s uncertainty about the impact but that it would be contained to an area in China. If you have evidence that it’s spreading elsewhere, if it’s going to Beijing or a spike in Korea, it’s small numbers but again it’s the uncertainty of how this unfolds that I think is -- given the move we’ve seen in equities, given how equities seem priced for perfection -- there can be a sell-first-ask-question-later if you get some bad news. That might be the type of thing that you get with headlines about whether it’s spreading or not.”

Peter Mallouk, president of Creative Planning:

“The coronavirus thing continues. It’s pretty clear that it’s disruptive in Asia and it’s going to disrupt production and manufacturing and pricing which then is going to impact, to some degree, the earnings of U.S. companies and global companies. You saw Apple say that. The market is starting to price that in. I mean, the market has been priced to perfection, large U.S. stocks have been priced to perfection for a long time. It doesn’t mean they can’t go higher but they’re pricing in a global economy that’s functioning where people are healthy and buying stuff and we’re not in a trade war and interest rates are low. They’re pricing in all of those things.”

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers:

“That it’s happening the day before expiration probably exacerbated the pain for those who are short gamma. There are a lot of profits to be protected and stops are normally a great way to do that. Except for the fact that stops often trigger other stops and liquidity dries up when you need it. Interesting that the most speculative names -- Tesla, Virgin Galactic, Plug Power -- are among the hardest hit.”

Kevin Caron, portfolio manager for Washington Crossing:

“I would attribute today’s move to continued concerns about coronavirus. To the extent that this is still front and center in the news flow, until we see the rate begin to roll over and to the extent we see any expansion of the outbreak beyond Chinese borders, there’s going to be concern. After a year of subpar global growth, the positive outlook would be that we see growth firm up globally and turn around. When we came into the year, we saw some signs of that. Over the last several weeks, the coronavirus has become an outside shock to the outlook. This is obviously not something that helps to create global growth.”

[Cobra]

I know it's late, now it's clearly a measured move up, the low might be in.

[Al_Dente]

Bears have no volume and no balls and they keep covering their shorts

[Heck]

MS Target + 73 %
From 53.73 to 93
+ 2.6 % Dividend

Debt to Equity 526.64%

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR
Tomorrow: Purchasing Managers' Index; US existing home sales

[Trades with cats]

Looking like ES 75 is too far away. Ready to drop into the close.

[Trades with cats]

Into the congestion zone around VWAP ES 3965 area.

[BullBear52x]

chart for the road: swing sell setup is confirmed today. not a recommendation, just to show what I got. Peace!

[BullBear52x]

Intraday 3 push up again. what a die-hard for bulls.

[Al_Dente]

Intraday 3 push up again. what a die-hard for bulls.

squeeze

[JFR]

ES 5. In a tight, little base between S1 and S2, riding the EMA 20.

And what of tomorrow? What has more weight? Very hard to keep the bulls down. But there are many indications of caution and more. Not gonna even guess. Holding some ETFs.