03/07/2020 Weekend Update

[tsf]

KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS.
It went a bit under the radar, but would obviously be a game changer.
POST if you see any more reference to this:
"The Fed should buy stocks"
Last week: Janet Yellen
Friday, 3/6, Boston Fed's Rosengren

Dr Al,
Dr Janet Yellen first floated that idea in Sep 2016
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN11Z2WI

[Heck]

SLV Target + 67 %
From 15.89 to 26.5

[BullTart]

KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THIS.
It went a bit under the radar, but would obviously be a game changer.
POST if you see any more reference to this:
"The Fed should buy stocks"
Last week: Janet Yellen
Friday, 3/6, Boston Fed's Rosengren

Next level interpretation of the "don't fight the fed" mantra

[Heck]

ZG Target + 189 %
From 48.06 to 138.86

48 % Margins

[Heck]

INO Target + 307 %
From 10.68 to 43.46

208 % Debt/Equity

+327 % YTD

"Human trials of coronavirus vaccine"

[Heck]

CL.1 Apr Futures - 2.7 % to 30

GC.1 Apr Futures +2 % to 1704.3 ($50 flash crash low)

edit SP.1 Mar Futures - 4.9 % to 2819

US10YR - 30 % to 0.49 %

VIX + 39 %

QE IV ?

[Al_Dente]

better check the futures
dow is down 1000 points as I type
spx is 2,822 (limit down would be 2,819 )
OIL OPENED AT $30 PER BARREL -25% (WTIC), bouncing a bit now

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5

[Heck]

North Korea fired 3 unidentified projectiles

[daytradingES]

Missed the drop as I forgot about the clock change

Seems 5% CME trading halt in place.
My best reading of gibbolygook is that it will last until 8:30 am


2. Application of Price Limits from Start of Trading Day to 8:30 a.m.
From the start of any Trading Day until 8:30 a.m., there shall be no trading in any
futures contract
for a given delivery month at any price that is either strictly lower than or strictly higher than the
range defined by the 5% Price Limits (Rule 35802.I.1.) applicable to such futures contract on such
Trading Day.
Without limitation to the foregoing, the start of any Trading Day generally shall coincide with the
start of the CME Globex trading session at 5:00 p.m. on the evening first preceding such Trading
Day. If the Primary Futures Contract Month is limit bid or limit offered at 8:23 a.m. and remains limit bid
or limit offered at 8:25 a.m., then futures trading shall halt and remain halted until 8:30 a.m. Prior to
reopening of Globex trading in futures at 8:30 a.m., the Exchange shall provide indicative opening prices in accord with Rule 573

https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cm ... 58/358.pdf

[Heck]

10-year Treasury yield hits new all-time low of 0.318% amid historic flight to bonds

New price highs don't lie. TLT Target + 44 % from 164.11 to 237 with 1.83 % T yield

Oil prices plunge as much as 30% after OPEC deal failure sparks price war = 27.34

XOM - 16 % to 40

Dow set to tank 1,300 points = 24,534.00

SP.1 Mar Futures Limit DOWN pinned, trading other months ?

New lows don't lie

Not our fathers' market

The President got his lower interest rates

1/.00318 implies a record 315 PE

El-Erian: Stocks could end up down 20%-30% when the bottom is finally reached

Pretty darn close to capitulation if not there

SPY Target + 92 %
From 275 to 528
+ 2 % Dividend Yield

If past is prologue
Few may avail

[Heck]

GC.1 April Futures 1,704.30 High

Repo increased to $150 B per day

Fed's Mester
A Standing Repo Facility May Be Useful

New highs don't lie

[JFR]

I was struggling to get my charts working this morning. And then I figured ... Ah ... Limit down activated. Circuit breaker.

[Heck]

'Corona Cases Explode
Markets Implode'

Faulty premise
Creates market opportunity

New York Firefighters Won't Respond To Coronavirus Calls

[Heck]

DB - 13 % to 6 handle

[Heck]

Circuit Breakers

If the S&P 500 drops 7%, trading pauses for 15 minutes (- 208 points)
If the S&P 500 declines 13%, trading pauses for 15 minutes if the drop occurs on or before 3:25 p.m. EDT (- 386 points)
If the S&P 500 falls 20%, trading halts for the remainder of the day. (- 594 points)

[Heck]

Sentiment Rising
CNN 6 Extreme Fear
94 point upside

Now 3 with 97 point upside

[Heck]

Russia Says It Can Weather $25 Oil For Up To 10 Years

That would be interesting times

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTISPLC

Back to the Future

[JFR]

No Cobra so far. I hope all is well with him. Strange day. Limit down. Coronavirus on the move. No charts from StockCharts.

2020-03-09_0631.png (22.45 KiB) Viewed 2845 times

[Heck]

Dow plummets 2000 edit points amid oil shock

Biggest banks and trading firms have moved employees out of Manhattan today

66.8 % Probability of zero % rate on 18 Mar FOMC

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/intere ... -fomc.html

[JFR]

TLT halted. I gambled on Friday. Went long on TLT and short on USO. I exited a couple of hours ago, pre-market trading. Ya get lucky sometimes.

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