09/27/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:29 am

didn't hold the breakout, my guess is the EMA20 blue line will be tested, there could be another buy opportunity (for day trade).

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:30 am

uempel wrote:I like catching a rocket, Cobra doesn't...
SPX12.png

good luch Uempel. May the force be with you!

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:31 am

AK84 wrote:Cobra,

Tomorrow is the third last trading day of the month Is it still "normal" to be up on this day with the short at third last day theory?

Seems that hasnt worked too well recently. Just wondering esp now since the rally has been ridic. and chiosc is wayyyy too high!

tomorrow up.

the last 2 trading days were mostly up recently.

so this setup no longer works.

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:31 am

heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.

Mr. BachNut · Post by **Mr. BachNut** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:33 am

ultramarine wrote:
Mr. BachNut wrote:Short is trapped. Did add to position to average price up, now SPY 116.43. Total position has been kept on the small side.
Will generate a small profit if gap to yesterday's close ever gets closed and a big profit if there is a move to new lows.
Bad news is that this bounce much higher than it should have been, which puts thesis in serious doubt.
Of particular concern is that NYA and certain other indexes hit lower low with positive divergences. So, there is an arguement for a double bottom having been made even though S&P didn't make one.
Will not be adding further to position. Have stop near last weeks highs but may tighten that if market action dictates.
Gulp.
Thanks for the update, Mr Bachnut. Agree that the up move has been powerful but that is often the case in bear market rallies after seriously oversold conditions. I plan to add some tiny short positions this afternoon, probably nearer to the close. If it goes to 1200, fine by me. I would only close the short if we exceeded 1220. TLT has been firming up a bit here. It is close to channel support, so if that holds, then maybe the equities rally will top out here. A breakdown of the channel near 114 would be bad news for bears though.

Agree. There should be a pretty good resistance zone around 1210 based on a couple of moving averages converging around there. If that falls, it will be telling.
One thought about TLT. Everyone is focused on windowdressing the equities. However, a lot of treasuries have been bought in recent weeks at very high prices. I imagine there will be some big funds out there who would like to see a nice quarter end print on their bond holdings. Just a thought. I don't know what to expect.

silicon_beaver · Post by **silicon_beaver** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:34 am

I mainly play FAS. Its 10/20MA are important resistances.
FAS shots over its 10MA/20MA today, like two weeks ago (see the chart attached).
In last six months, FAS seldom stayed over 10/20MA, once moved over, then pull-back. Recent case was one two weeks ago.

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:35 am

BullBear52x wrote:heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.

u... u... u... u... u... go first... we... we... we.. follow behind you...

ultramarine · Post by **ultramarine** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:36 am

Cobra wrote:
grachu wrote:from your night report cobra you mentioned the spx to go high on the tinted area before the 1 half hour ? on your view have we meet that ?
yes, the rebound is exceptionally strong this time.

Thanks for this chart. It really is a work of art! So although the move here has been as strong as previous ones, would you still expect a pullback phase as in b and b'? Since the rise was equally strong, then the pullback should also be approximately on the same scale. I would think so, but I'm interested in your thinking here.

oldpigwang · Post by **oldpigwang** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:38 am

Cobra:"tomorrow up.

the last 2 trading days were mostly up recently.

so this setup no longer works."
Mean tomorrow up? or no up?

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:39 am

Cobra wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.
u... u... u... u... u... go first... we... we... we.. follow behind you...

heading right back up as soon as I mentioned it

I will go with TZA once this breaks down.

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:42 am

oldpigwang wrote:Cobra:"tomorrow up.

the last 2 trading days were mostly up recently.

so this setup no longer works."
Mean tomorrow up? or no up?

tomorrow up, works.

the last 2 days down no longer work, now up.

so should be up the rest of 3 days of this week.

I don't mean it''ll be up 3 more days in a row, I just mean according to this failed setup.

I mean, cannot you guys check my public chart book yourselves? every chart I use are mostly in there.

silicon_beaver · Post by **silicon_beaver** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:42 am

Cobra wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.
u... u... u... u... u... go first... we... we... we.. follow behind you...

I believe, BEN is watching us (mainly Cobra's posts) here and decides how to move against the evil plan.

buyorsell · Post by **buyorsell** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:43 am

I don't have the technical skills as most of you have here. Here is my 2-cents.
I believe EU may have a temporary "solution" to deal with Greek debt, which could be a "creative default".
In this case, we may see weak Euro but strong equity market.
BTW, I'm glad that I closed my short positions.
Cheers,

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:46 am

Today $VIX C/P vol. ~ 2. However, from “buy at…” and timing surveys, most put trades are exits, while call trades seem to be acquisitions.
Most active: VIX.Oct.40.Call

rocstocktrader · Post by **rocstocktrader** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:46 am

A good portion of the sectors I follow have now closed their gap down levels from last week. Based on today's stock market direction action many have now created gap ups. If this hold true by the close I will update the levels on my analysis webpage tonight. http://rocmarketdashboard.webs.com/

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:46 am

silicon_beaver wrote:
Cobra wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.
u... u... u... u... u... go first... we... we... we.. follow behind you...
I believe, BEN is watching us (mainly Cobra's posts) here and decides how to move against the evil plan.

I don't think any one watching only 100 or so of us here.

Post by **Cobra** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:49 am

silicon_beaver wrote:
Cobra wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.
u... u... u... u... u... go first... we... we... we.. follow behind you...
I believe, BEN is watching us (mainly Cobra's posts) here and decides how to move against the evil plan.

yeah, it happened many times, every time I said bulls or bears are weaker, the next day it showed exceptional strength. I really think someone is watching... one time is coincidence, 3 or 10 are no coincidences anymore.

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:49 am

Ok, after checking P&Fs I'm not doing anything. Presumably SPX will hit 1202 this week...

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:49 am

go bears go!

soku · Post by **soku** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:49 am

Cobra wrote:
BullBear52x wrote:heads up hard core bears! the EUR/USD is losing a strenght, DT bears scalping should start soon.
u... u... u... u... u... go first... we... we... we.. follow behind you...

me followed. my target is 1172.5
add: i will check the behavior around 1179 to determine my stop

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09/27/2011 Intraday Watering

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