09/28/2011 Intraday Watering

[Rezito]

Dennis Gartman today:

Germany officials have said time and again that
negotiations about the second rescue deal shall begin
when and only when “The Troika” has agreed that
Greece has in fact qualified to receive this sixth… yes, a
sixth!!... tranche of bail-out funds. This new bailout’s
intent is to reduce Greece's debt burden by imposing a
21% “haircut” on private Greek bondholders when in
reality the “haircut” should be and almost certainly must
be at least 50%... if not more. If it were not so serious we
would find the 21% number to be comical in nature, for
where in the world did the authorities find this number,
which is not 20% or 30% but is instead 21%. We have
wondered aloud, why did they not go all the way and say
that the haircut should be 21.8667% if one was striving
for some sense of authenticity. If one is going to lie, then
lie boldly and lie often. Thus far the officials in Europe
simply lie; the “boldly” aspect of their lies remains aloof.

[soku]

here is the worst case scenario: go up slightly from here and stick around 1162 es, 1168 spx, then i still don't know what to do

[Mongoose]

this market is not as exciting as i expected. excluding the tiny spikes to both ends around 11, we are pretty much in a rectangle.
i wish es could dip to 1153.75, then i can go long there. take lunch break now. later

long condition not satisfied yet. my line remains at 1153.75. i don't feel comfortable to go long. will decide based on tape reading if we go there

we at es 1153.5 now. it is a no buy but will closely watch for a retracement

i don't feel like it is taking off. since next move should be meaningful, if the bullish setup is valid. my preliminary guess is 1170+.
maybe another pull back to get a buy. my question is will 1152 hold?

why dont you check this website:

http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... arket.html

[SB73]

Well what can I say, I must reshort here with a stop at 1172 and a target of 1150 ish.

[Rezito]

here is the worst case scenario: go up slightly from here and stick around 1162 es, 1168 spx, then i still don't know what to do

That's exactly what's happening now, I'm holding my shorts with a shaky hand.

[rhight]

15 min. view

It looks like the last minor up trend has broken (could be a fake), there may be another small double top like on 9/16 to 9/20. Price is now under declining 50 and 20 DMA's and 60 min 20 MA, and back testing the support breaks. The boxes are time and price reversal probability windows for the 60min cycle.

These are the pivots I analyzed to obtain the time and price ranges. Because of the high volatility, the 60 min and Daily Cycles seem to have merged in places. As you can see, near support at 1140. The average of the last six 60 min declines would take us to 1124.

[Petsamo]

Unless some miracle comes up and we rally big, we should be gapping down tomorrow. We have 40 min left.

[Cobra]

still looks like a bear flag and hopefully for bears this is just to back test the breakdown point. let's see how market closes today.

[JustTrading]

Cobra,

If we close at current levels, what is your best guess for tomorrow?

Thanks and take care...rest and lots of fluids.

[soku]

here is the worst case scenario: go up slightly from here and stick around 1162 es, 1168 spx, then i still don't know what to do

That's exactly what's happening now, I'm holding my shorts with a shaky hand.

trading is simple but not easy. whatever i don't like will happen, as always.

[SB73]

Well what can I say, I must reshort here with a stop at 1172 and a target of 1150 ish.

Thanks Cobra for all of your work. Consolidate below bear flag suggests further downside.

[Cobra]

Cobra,

If we close at current levels, what is your best guess for tomorrow?

Thanks and take care...rest and lots of fluids.

no idea. I see CPCI is extremely high today, use to be a top sign just I need read the close number, so too early to say.

[heavenskrow]

15 min. view

SPX 09-30-11 Weekly Report 15min.png

It looks like the last minor up trend has broken (could be a fake), there may be another small double top like on 9/16 to 9/20. Price is now under declining 50 and 20 DMA's and 60 min 20 MA, and back testing the support breaks. The boxes are time and price reversal probability windows for the 60min cycle.

SPX 09-30-11 60min reversals.png

These are the pivots I analyzed to obtain the time and price ranges. Because of the high volatility, the 60 min and Daily Cycles seem to have merged in places. As you can see, near support at 1140. The average of the last six 60 min declines would take us to 1124.

This. I like your analysis a lot.

[Cobra]

Bear Flag broken, looks like a it will test the intraday low which is kind of key time again if no decisively breakdown, then we might see 2 leg up from here. so watch closely.

[Al_Dente]

Here the internals exclusively from the bear view
$NYDEC declining issues in red with SH candlesticks faded behind
(SH = bear SPY equivalent..... we don’t trade it …it is just the purest inverted SPY I can find)
Same internals, all twisted around for bears
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SH&p=5 ... =244660020

[99er]

ES
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/es_3300.html

[heavenskrow]

Death.

[Cobra]

here comes the test as I said. key time!

[KENA]

With commodities going dn and copper going dn big time and the CRB index now at the 303 area this mkt does not look good.When we hit below 300 this mkt will go dn faster. Wait and see.

[ultramarine]

LOD here we come. Could get ugly.