12/18/2020 Live Update

[Cobra]

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No idea up or down from here. Possible range day.

[Cobra]

The members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/12 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Failed to take out ON high at the open not a good start to the witch.

[Zane]

will end in green today

[te_fern]

Broke down thru the top line and then rallied back up to it. Will it break up or head to the lower line???

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/12 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Vol surge, then one bar rebound then another wide red bar so the rebound was the final flag therefore the current rebound should last, let's see.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Three bounces, come on now you know the overnight low needs to be tested from below.

[Al_Dente]

Tom DeMark sees about about 3,907 BY THE END OF THE YEAR
… Then "down severely in the first half [of 2021]...” 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock ... 1608225371

[Cobra]

3 push down so maybe this time the rebound would last awhile. Break below the day low with good looking bear bar then it's a downtrend day.

[Al_Dente]

EARLIER POST: Since the November 2 low, the Equal Weight SPX (dashed line behind price) has been confirming each high …. until the 12/9 high when it printed a neg divergence …. On today’s ATH the equal weight $SOXEW DID NOT HIGH yet. Another NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE

UPDATE: Equal Weight made a new high

[Cobra]

Typical breakdown then sharp reversal? It's the bull's last chance to make today a range day here.

[Cobra]

EARLIER POST: Since the November 2 low, the Equal Weight SPX (dashed line behind price) has been confirming each high …. until the 12/9 high when it printed a neg divergence …. On today’s ATH the equal weight $SOXEW DID NOT HIGH yet. Another NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE

UPDATE: Equal Weight made a new high

Both SPY and RSP made a new all time high today then down. It's not just equal weighted made new all time high.

[Al_Dente]

TSLA
Estimates are that TSLA will have a 1.5% weighting in the S&P, but that number will be updated this weekend, depending on today’s close.
TSLA’s “... trading impact has been significant. Shares are up about 58% since Nov. 16, when the decision was made by the S&P index committee to include Tesla.” The S&P ... for comparison, is up only 3% since then.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-fr ... 1608237677

Ever the bear, zh notes that according to “smart beta data nerds” TSLA will be a drag on the index, and etc.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/monda ... to+zero%29

For reference, this is the current top-ten weighting of SPY, as of 12/16, obviously prior to the addition of TSLA.

I expect a bit of chaos at Monday’s open as the various stock platforms struggle to get it right.

[Cobra]

Not sure whether the low was in or not, as the general pattern should be another leg down to test the day low before a bottom can be possible.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Squeeze Metrics on twitter was the source of Zero Hedge article on Tesla. Mr Lemon (his avatar) clearly could have worked for the wonks at the New York banks. He is more of a math person than any sort of bull bear bias. The theory being that Tesla is a giant options play. The stories validating the theory seem sound to me. The hottest fund this year has 15 % in Tesla, Softbank was using out of the money options to force market makers to buy the stock etc.,etc.

Lemon's forecast that implied volatility will bleed out because of a large number of long term holders (for a change) is appealing but I am not smart enough to know. I do agree with his chart showing volatility spikes and options games are required for Tesla shares to jump. I do agree with him that if the big boys can arbitrage volatility between Tesla and the S&P they will.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2020/12 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Measured move looking for overnight low.
The dotted lines are fib levels off of the EMA using 20 period ATR.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Options expiration is my reason for thinking all price levels ending in zero or five should be sticky. Could be an urban myth. But 3690 and 3695 sure look sticky to me.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

2nd test of overnight low since falling through. It has been an hour so meets Cobras time rule for a valid double top if the bulls fail here. Going to take a while to move up through all the congestion at this level.