02/01/2022 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

[Sounds like a landmark deal, and perhaps harbinger of things to come]
"Tribes Reach $590 Million Opioid Settlement With J. & J. and Distributors.
Money ...would go toward addiction and treatment and would be overseen by Native American tribal leaders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/heal ... ribes.html

[Ratbastrd]

2yr yield is 1.18%
10yr yield is 1.78%
Does that mean they don't have much faith in the longer term?
eg: Why would they continue bidding up the 2yr over the 10yr?
(real questions, not rhetorical)

Screenshot 2022-02-01 113154.jpg

Because consensus feel Fed is going to stall economy.

[ccash04]

2yr yield is 1.18%
10yr yield is 1.78%
Does that mean they don't have much faith in the longer term?
eg: Why would they continue bidding up the 2yr over the 10yr?
(real questions, not rhetorical)

Screenshot 2022-02-01 113154.jpg

Remember yield and price are inverse so there is selling front end of the curve and not as much selling more consolidation on the long end of the curve.

It comes down to really two outcomes - inflation that is persistent or deflation - what we have been dealing with since GFC. If it is the former, then the long end has a long way to fall in price or go up in yield. If it is the latter, then it is pricing Fed policy error, raises rates then has to cut rates. My take is Fed still sees latter based on market pricing and the fact that inflation expectations were anchored for so long, not sure they are right here as once inflation expectations take off hard to keep them under wraps without drastic action. In short, it's pricing a policy error and more than likely will continue to bear flatten. If inflation continues to be high and or have sustained periods of stagflation, that is huge given all the long end rate affect. Basically borrowing costs for everyone companies, mortgages, etc. Fed does not have as much control of the longer end of the curve, their Feds rate really just effects front end up to 2 or 5 year. I argue 2 year but I can see where one could say 5 year given the past 10 years.

[Al_Dente]

thanks rat and cash

[Al_Dente]

"It's either a trend candle or a doji. Period." [Al Brooks]
SPY, SPX doji at 50% retracement, resistance

[Al_Dente]

GOOG Earnings: Tonight, after the close

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I looked, GOOG expected to beat nicely across the board.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:32 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[marcueus2]

So 4557 is target for today it seams

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:48 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

[Cobra]

Hi All.....I just had a birthday and turned 94. I still trade but on a reduced scale and not everyday. I enjoy reading all your posts and Cobras. I think Cobra is one of the best and will continue to enjoy his web site. Here is to another year. Kena

KENA, big WOW! Sorry just saw your comment, thank you and happy birthday! You really are an inspiration for all of us!

[bb8bb9]

Hi All.....I just had a birthday and turned 94. I still trade but on a reduced scale and not everyday. I enjoy reading all your posts and Cobras. I think Cobra is one of the best and will continue to enjoy his web site. Here is to another year. Kena

Hi Kena, a late Happy Birthday to you!!! Wanted to say that when I saw your post yesterday but had a problem with login which Cobra so kindly fixed for me. I must say I was astonished and also touched reading your post yesterday, at 94 years old, you got to be on a shortlist of the oldest stock market traders in the US, if not in the world! That is truly amazing and admirable! I don't know if I have what it takes to live to 94 years old but if I do, I wish I would be like you--still trading and posting on the forum, that would be just awesome!!! I do have a question for you if I may, Kena, but I am curious if your trading gets better as you get old, you know, like aging to whisky, and the wisdom you have gained over the years enables you to see this market clearly through all the smokes and mirrors, and shenanigans?

All the best to you, Kena, and take a good care of yourself! See you around!!!

BB

p.s. Not sure if you will be able to see this post, please do let me know.