02/08/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

Still no sure whether it's a range day or trend day. If it's a trend day then I can trust this up calling "this bull shall have legs". But because it's within the last day's range so I treat it as a range day and this is why until now I still don't know whether "this bull shall have legs applies or not.

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is unclear.
It spiked into positive territory last week only to quickly fall back below zero.
I am treating the action as if we are in an up cycle even though we have the last three closes below zero.
The initial upthrust was very overbought having moved from deep in the turn zone without rest.
We are now coiling around the zero line, which is neutral.
The next higher high or lower low in NYMO is probably a decider one way or the other.
The question is who is going to get trapped...

Price is biding time between the 200MA and the middle keltner band.
Bulls can be encouraged to see the 200 MA offering support.
There are two gaps above that can turn into magnets if things perk up.

I am still neutral with short runner positions hedged by equivalent longs, having done nothing since last post.
I have breakeven stops on the runners and profit stops on the hedges.
There are some technical murmurs for long setups, but nothing is seriously percolating at the moment.

[BullBear52x]

ES 03-22 (1 Minute) 2022_02_08 (10_31_56 AM).png

Here we go. I expanded the composite on the right to include the last 10 trading days as there is a chance we will break out of Friday's range, eventually.

Nice chart

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Much better. 1 and 5 now equal, and 3 is very very close to 261% of 1. And it all fits into volume profile spots very neatly.

Real problem is the bears were hoping to own this impulse so clearly the bulls have taken control back for now. 35 points in an hour is a solid showing.

[Al_Dente]

If you overlay sentiment (1/VIX) on SPY
The divergences are the "tell"
eg: yesterday and today, call buyers diverged bull (calls were bought as SPY bottomed)

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I added the measured move tool to make it clear this is the tird day bulls have spent a lot of energy to keep their heads above water. Where water is the gamma switch where options market makers start shorting underlying.

[Al_Dente]

The NYMO cycle is unclear.
It spiked into positive territory last week only to quickly fall back below zero.
I am treating the action as if we are in an up cycle even though we have the last three closes below zero.
The initial upthrust was very overbought having moved from deep in the turn zone without rest.
We are now coiling around the zero line, which is neutral.
The next higher high or lower low in NYMO is probably a decider one way or the other.......

Used to have to wait and wait until Friday for your post.
Now you are posting more frequently.
I LIKE THAT. THANKS MR. BACH

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:07 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/02 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Top panel: 67% of nyse stocks are advancing at the moment
Middle panel: price could go either way
Bottom panel: calls suggest bull at the moment
60m

[JFR]

ES five minutes. Through the Pivot, all the way to R1, where it meets resistance.

[JFR]

GWO.TO. HQ in Winnipeg.

Not a recommendation. It showed up on a scan. I will take a look at charts for different time frames, looking for a possible entry.

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[BullBear52x]

Another late day sell off will destroy buyers confidence, so I don't think today will be a late day sell off like last couple days.

[Mr. BachNut]

Used to have to wait and wait until Friday for your post.
Now you are posting more frequently.
I LIKE THAT. THANKS MR. BACH

Thank you Mr. D.
As a long time Cobra fan, I try to visit once a week to see what you guys are up to and toss on a note.
Ideally, NYMO has something to say or offers some edge at the time.
Though, as i like to point out, I have no idea what will happen.
I am grateful for this Board as I have learned much from you and the gang over the years.
(How many years has it been Cobra?)

In line with today's post, I am finding this year quite challenging so far.
I want to buy intermediate trends, but I am finding many markets have been kicking off only to reverse or chop after a brief move.
There are exceptions (WTI, Soybeans), which ideally were entered during the Christmas holiday week.
So, clarity is in short supply. I will try to post more if I see something useful, but I think staying frosty is the word.
The fat pitches will come in due course.

[Cobra]

Some resistances here but I guess it might not be a problem for bulls.

[BullBear52x]

Text book breakout and now a support, a failing to hold above 61.8% will be negative. so bulls need to push up and up if now back to day low again. I am not buying no mater what today, so, next sell setup I will test the water on the south bound.

[Al_Dente]

Last week... the Goldman trading desk noted "everyone is now hedged for a crash", indicating that the market was averaging $1 Trillion worth of puts per day, the "largest on record" ... "Monday for example $2.2 Trillion notional traded in US options market, with 64% puts
zh: acute downside to stocks is now limited as everyone who wants to be is hedged
Probably worth reading:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-b ... -one-catch

[Cobra]

Lower high? So the high was in for today? Confusion is the hallmark of a range day.

[BullBear52x]

Sell for now, I just want to show my view of bullishness, always keep it in check while shorting. Haha

[BullBear52x]

5 min, sideways buy Lo sell Hi, still rock and roll. Scalping to the max.

Intraday still selling.

[BullBear52x]

That's all she wrote for da bears. Peace!