03/09/2022 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B reporting in.

Since we entered this High VIX war zone, I have left the NYMO model alone.
It continues to coil around the zero line and thrusts offer no edge for initiation of a new trend.
In fact they have been more representative of pushes to a support or resistance level leading to reversal.
Today, we find NYMO positive and price breaking yesterday's high. So, perhaps we get another push down between now and the end of the week.

That said, the NYMO low for March so far is above both the January and the February low.
Also, price on this last downdraft did not tag the lower keltner band and remains above the February low.
Perhaps bears are getting a bit tired and need to rest for awhile.

We have gaps above, and the 200MA, middle keltner and 50MA are all in the same neighborhood.
We have quarter OPEX next week, futures rollover and FOMC.
So, while the price trend is down, minds should be open to the possibility of a big squeeze (incl. volatility crush).

I am flat on my usual longer time frame setups and have limited myself to occasional short time frame setups during waking hours.

[Ratbastrd]

Swing setup, this is not a sell the rip, last sell with no new LL, this is a candidate for breakout and up, if not today, gap up tomorrow is more likely. another day yet but will see, more and more bullish today than yesterday overall. bottoming is a process not one day wonder. Patience!

Agree with the last statement, it is a process and patience is key.

Put/Call says no no. 1.11, options traders not loving this rally.

TRIN, says no no. Every time we have one of these squeezes TRIN spikes.

[BullBear52x]

Swing setup, this is not a sell the rip, last sell with no new LL, this is a candidate for breakout and up, if not today, gap up tomorrow is more likely. another day yet but will see, more and more bullish today than yesterday overall. bottoming is a process not one day wonder. Patience!

Agree with the last statement, it is a process and patience is key.

Put/Call says no no. 1.11, options traders not loving this rally.

TRIN, says no no. Every time we have one of these squeezes TRIN spikes.

TRIN-page-001.jpg

Trust but verify

[BullBear52x]

Upper channel, so much of a support floor, I am not bearish until the lower 61.8% fail to support. bullish for now.

[Ratbastrd]

Upper channel, so much of a support floor, I am not bearish until the lower 61.8% fail to support. bullish for now.

Scotty, we need more power!

[Ratbastrd]

$TICK(s) are rolling over, bulls need to step back in or "da bears" gonna feast again.

[Cobra]

Not sure whether it's a lower high here. The up today was mainly because of a gap so without a strong push up I cannot say the pullback would be bought.

[BullBear52x]

Daily bullish, only a closed below the opening price will the crash course continue.

[Ratbastrd]

Nice chart from David Keller (Stockcharts.com), posted on TWTR just now.

"As long as high yield spreads continue to widen (top panel, plotted inversely), and volatility continues to elevate (middle panel, plotted inversely), then I will continue to call this an established bear market phase."

[jademann]

Looks like a repeat of Feb 16th candle to me. I rarely chase gaps also.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p ... 8575845663

[BullBear52x]

buy the dip intraday were good, now a breakout will take us up as high as 4309 /ES, unreal, but this market newer real from the start.

[BullBear52x]

Put my stop here and will call it a day. Peace!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:35 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:56 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Thursday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

[JFR]

SPY 15. The bulls had a good run today.

[JFR]

Alternatives. Lots of action today. Standing still not allowed. You must run.