06/24/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

Still breakout is more likely.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:12 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

Next week marks the end of the month, end of the second quarter and end of the first half of the year, making for a busy time for investors with fixed-weight portfolios, who must rebalance their asset exposure...
JPM's chief global markets strategist, Marko Kolanovic, said today that U.S. equities could see a 7% move up next week as investors rebalance ....
"Of course, rebalances are not the only drivers and the estimated move is assuming 'all else equal,’" Kolanovic said.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 022-06-24/

[JFR]

FDX daily. Desperate for a long? Are stocks starting to show up as good longs on scans? Not for this trader. Not yet. FDX is too choppy for me, although it is moving up. Stick to day trading for the time being. Of course, not a recommendation, just information for the forum.

[DellGriffith]

On inflation:

I'm old enough to remember the inflation of the 1970s. I was following the market even back then. I can give you my first-hand account on how they beat inflation. Defeating inflation involved two steps. The first step was a drastic interest rate hike. Most people know about this. But there was another component that seems forgotten. Most economists back then felt that when the economy recovered, inflation would return as well. But it did not. The reason it didn't was the emergence of discount brokerage firms and the creation of the 401k (with that juicy company match) which made investing accessible to a new generation of people. This was critically important because it broke the mindset of spend, spend, spend. Instead of consumers burning thru their savings to buy more stuff, they started using their savings to invest in the stock market. With less and less money being spent on goods and services, inflation was destroyed. You could argue inflation was diverted into stock market prices, as markets began a 20-year boom.

We have the same problem as we did back then, we consumers losing faith in price stability and starting to buy buy buy goods and services. The solution is the same as it was then, we need to make investing more accessible and more lucrative to the common person. That doesn't mean make a second 401k. It could be anything, really. It could be a new government bond, or high yield instrument. Just something to make it much more attractive to invest than spend.

[koolblue]

Like watching paint dry... been in a tight consolidation for almost 4 hours now. The danger is of course, we could have already made our daily high cause 5 day avg 0f 114 points plus todays low = 3895... so its very risky both ways now. we could make a high anywhere up here

[cletus]

Cletus close notes:

1) SPY is closing in on the double gap around 397. One way or another, that will fill. Things are certainly pointing in the direction of eventual continuation of the up move here today and further upside
2) The rally is expected to stop even under my bullish scenario around 4100 before a pullback. At some point over 3,900 it becomes more neutral to hold long positions on expectations of lower prices ahead as markets either form a triangle or H&S bottom
3) Peak bull moon cycle terminates around the end of next week. After that, bears face bullish seasonality in July, making it hard for me to believe they will gain much ground other than maybe a pullback of a few percent at some point.
4) August and September are much more bearish and would be ideal times to book bull profits and think about a short

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:35 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[koolblue]

Well here it is 3905, too late in the day for me to take advantage of it.. Nonetheless a trend day up as i suspected and right to my upside target. inished up only tiny today cause it shot right up the first 40 min and then mish mash for hours! But a win is a win Right? Have a great weekend gang!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:55 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/06 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action. A late move, fueled by a volume surge.

Have a good weekend, Everyone. Stay safe.