07/14/2022 Live Update

[koolblue1413]

Hi. Since you report trades, it would help observers follow the action, for success or failure, if you would post the entry price and time when they happen. Thanks.

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I'm not gonna detail every little thing for someone to piggyback my trades frankly, they are my business. If you are so worried about my success or failure you can look at my posts for the last couple months. Always right? Heck no but I'll match my work against anybody's here. All I was trying to do is help less experienced traders learn some new tricks....I even got criticized by Cobra for using capital letters! I give up.Im outta here

[Al_Dente]

Puts

[JFR]

Alternatives.

All fall down. Except UUP.

[JFR]

Hi. Since you report trades, it would help observers follow the action, for success or failure, if you would post the entry price and time when they happen. Thanks.

2022-07-14_06-46-10.png

2022-07-14_06-48-26.png

I'm not gonna detail every little thing for someone to piggyback my trades frankly, they are my business. If you are so worried about my success or failure you can look at my posts for the last couple months. Always right? Heck no but I'll match my work against anybody's here. All I was trying to do is help less experienced traders learn some new tricks....I even got criticized by Cobra for using capital letters! I give up.Im outta here

If you post trades, they are there to be seen, they are not just your business. After the fact posting of successful trades is very poor form, and also doubtful.

If you want to help less experienced traders learn some new tricks, post your entries when they happen, and later you can explain your thought process.

Thanks for your contributions.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Best thing for newer traders is watch Morad when he goes on a rant like this morning. Did a great job of explaining auction theory with current set up, i.e., learn how to trade not what to trade. FT71 Trader Byte on You Tube.

[Cobra]

Testing EMA20, where is the last chance for bears to make another leg down. Strong breakout would mean range day at the best for bears.

[brokebybernacke2]

the VIX 50ma isnt going to hold. Means more down to retest recent lows.

First VIX support is 30.2. Then 34.8. After that....

We will NOT have a tradeable bottom (swing type) till 45+ vix. imho

[Al_Dente]

RISK BAROMETER update
(Recall that as investors feel more comfortable with risk, they'll buy smalls, banks, semis, junk, high betas, etc.)
Up = risk-on
Down = risk-off
Note: All are risk-off; albeit a few are on higher lows

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

[Al_Dente]

Obvious target is the green arrow, a test of the low

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action. Liftoff. Third stage rocket.

Back later ...

[jademann]

the VIX 50ma isnt going to hold. Means more down to retest recent lows.

First VIX support is 30.2. Then 34.8. After that....

We will NOT have a tradeable bottom (swing type) till 45+ vix. imho

https://schrts.co/UpsEaMFx

The VIX is bouncing between the 20 and the 50. My bet is we will break the 50 because of fear of a 1% rate rise. Maybe not today though.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:15 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/07 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Fed chatter is confusing. Yesterday the Wall Street Journal's official unofficial fed whisperer said 3/4% for July. But today Fed speakers were walking that back to put 1% on the table.
At the same time the herd of analyists at the investment banks are moving towards base case recession with Fed stopping at 3.5 to 4% somewhere around September or later.
ZeroHedge keeps repeating that the market will bottom when the Fed reverses course and starts cutting rates, current view is early next year.

Personally, I think because the market usually overshoots we are in for a serious revision to the mean experience. I read that an entire generation of traders are active but only saw the 2000 crash as an academic study. Cue Yoda "you will be afraid".

[Al_Dente]

Performance, BANKS, daily, YTD
with SPX in dashed-purple for context

[brokebybernacke2]

the VIX 50ma isnt going to hold. Means more down to retest recent lows.

First VIX support is 30.2. Then 34.8. After that....

We will NOT have a tradeable bottom (swing type) till 45+ vix. imho

https://schrts.co/UpsEaMFx

The VIX is bouncing between the 20 and the 50. My bet is we will break the 50 because of fear of a 1% rate rise. Maybe not today though.

no , not today lol...think a 40 vix we shall see in the coming months, and that will be a swing BOUNCE, but not expecting much, expect sideways malaise for some time after that bounce...the 50+ zone will be thereafter, there is a long road ahead....the market has existed for decades on extremely cheap and free money. That is gone. and now mama taking away 1 trill worth of cookies. temper tantrums to come

[Al_Dente]

5m
Top panel: only 10% of NY stocks were advancing today... Oversold... a bounce is due....
Second panel: SPX has an opportunity to double/multiple bottom on a descending triangle (which would break UP). It failed but is trying again.
When it breaks down the first target is 3700, next target down is 3640.
There are currently three LL on this down leg.
Sine wave (cyan) is just for fun
BOUNCES WILL INTERVENE. If the bounce gets above the red-dashed descending trendline, and 3825 thereafter, the bounce will turn into a trend change
Third panel: Divergence: lower low SPX, higher low 1/VIX... that can change quickly.... stay tuned

[Cobra]

Wow, it's a measured move up. People really are in buying mood.

[jademann]

It has not been a sane market for a decade! I am amazed that the bulls managed to fill the gap given the pending rate increase.

brokebybernacke2 wrote:
No , not today lol...think a 40 vix we shall see in the coming months, and that will be a swing BOUNCE, but not expecting much, expect sideways malaise for some time after that bounce...the 50+ zone will be thereafter, there is a long road ahead....the market has existed for decades on extremely cheap and free money. That is gone. and now mama taking away 1 trill worth of cookies. temper tantrums to come

[cletus]

Cletus Close:

1) Dumb money continues to be pessimistic here. They should have been pessimistic back in January, not at the end of the bear cycle
2) Gap fills above are price guarantees. There is no downside guarantees, so I see no reason to even consider a short here
3) Netflix earnings next week should be interesting. I still hold my calls and my longer term dividend plays (some paying ridiculous amounts like 16%). Once in a lifetime kind of opportunities.