08/09/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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In range and testing yesterday's low, maybe a rebound here first.

[JFR]

ES daily.

Two-legged move up since July 19.

Now in a very tight range for 8 days.

[Cobra]

ES daily.

Two-legged move up since July 19.

Now in a very tight range for 8 days.

2022-08-09_04-27-24.png

The 2 legs look strong so probably still a 3rd leg or at least a double top is needed before a top can be possible.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. Down from a high on Monday. Down from the Pivot.

[JFR]

ES daily.

Two-legged move up since July 19.

Now in a very tight range for 8 days.

2022-08-09_04-27-24.png

The 2 legs look strong so probably still a 3rd leg or at least a double top is needed before a top can be possible.

Hi Cobra,

Yes. Could be. But ya just never know for sure. It has been stuck beneath that resistance line for a long time.

We will see ...

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Strong move down. Finding some support at 4130.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hyatt ... =home-page

In the news from MarketWatch ...

And market value has risen since mid-July.

Does that make Hyatt an attractive stock to buy? Many buyers like it. It might even keep rising as people get back into traveling.

But not for this trader. Way, way overvalued with a P/E of 609.81. There are "many fish in the sea," with good P/E ratios, and better fundamentals. I prefer to hunt for them. Just imo, as we wait for the market to open.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-r ... =home-page

Sentiment as a consideration in trading. Aside from what I hear, or see in passing, I pay little attention to sentiment.

Here is a chart from MarketWatch on sentiment. It is of little use to this trader.

My take on it ... Looking at the six asset classes, with a daily chart, what I see is GLD down longer term but rising, QQQ up, SPY up, TLT up, USO down and UUP is still up, but sliding down a bit. I do like to keep an eye on the markets in general. Sentiment? Nah. Risk on, Risk off? If I hear or see something, I check the charts. Bias re the markets, from the charts? Yes. For this trader it is mostly in the charts. Others will no doubt see it differently.

Just in my opinion, as we wait for the market to open. Quiet market just now, so I have been reading some articles on MarketWatch.

[brokebybernacke2]

oil is up, makes everything expensive, market no like.

[marcueus2]

oil is up, makes everything expensive, market no like.

Wait till winter, Oil/gas will get super expensive due to russia embargo and US reserves depletion FED will have to hike till 5.0% or democrats will lose the election

[brokebybernacke2]

oil is up, makes everything expensive, market no like.

Wait till winter, Oil/gas will get super expensive due to russia embargo and US reserves depletion FED will have to hike till 5.0% or democrats will lose the election

We shall see, but market needs oil below 88 level to start movin up again. Semis are pretty dour on 2023, wonder what up.

[cletus]

The upcoming CPI report is probably responsible for today's nervousness and selling. Doubt investors will be rewarded for that behavior. Eventually CPI stands to crash month over month because of huge declines in oil, grains, etc. It didn't happen last month because the costs hadn't really flowed through to other areas. It will start to soon.

[koolblue]

Agree Cletus! ya gotta buy this dip boyz! little lower tho . Support at 4120, 41116 4109 and 4090.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/08 ... ay-update/

[marcueus2]

The upcoming CPI report is probably responsible for today's nervousness and selling. Doubt investors will be rewarded for that behavior. Eventually CPI stands to crash month over month because of huge declines in oil, grains, etc. It didn't happen last month because the costs hadn't really flowed through to other areas. It will start to soon.

it did not happen because it is too late to just to stop it with lower oil prices and inflation "hype train" is on the rails. Right now only recession can stop it.

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is categorically UP, but it has been making a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The cycle remains up as long as NYMO stays positive.
This pullback could simply be a corrective move to the zero line while price consolidates.
Alternatively, we began a downcycle following the July 29 high and negative NYMO will confirm it down the road.
Let's see what happens.
Of some concern to the bulls, the highs so far this month have come on a negative NYMO divergence.

Price is consolidating with a positive bias.
We closed all nearby up gaps in recent days leaving two nearby down gaps that could become magnets.
We ticked above the June high yesterday, but I don't think it was sufficient to squeeze out remaining shorts.
Another set of highs to get a thorough squeeze would not surprise.

We are about mid-way between the middle keltner and the upper keltner band.
Generally, price likes to be directionally moving toward a band or with a band; not hovering in between like now.
So, I am inclined to anticipate this consolidation will end soon one way or another.

I don't know what will happen.

I remain long runner positions in SPX and R2K.
I scaled out a little yesterday at the close on a discretionary basis.
It is usually a bad idea when I do this, but given the negative NYMO divergence, I was OK to take a few chips off the table at that price.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Ugly. Except for the one move down, which I missed.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Moving down hard. Testing S1.

Back later ...

[Cobra]

Nothing to say, it's a down price channel so far, now testing channel lower boundary so a rebound here?

[BullBear52x]

Watch TSI 0 cross, it will not be pretty if it is.