08/26/2022 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Powell is trending on twitter, here are some snippets:

Powell: While rate increases will slow growth and inflation, “they will also bring some pain to households and businesses.”
“Those are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”

Powell vowed to fight inflation "forcefully," as he weighs whether a large rate increase will be necessary at the central bank's meeting next month. [ABC]

Powell said: “Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”
Stocks sink, short-term yields rise, the yield curve inverts further. [Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg]

"Today Powell was clearly setting the expectation for a 75bp hike. He used words life "forcefully" and "until the job is done." After a general market run up into a down trending 200-day line, an aggressive Fed is likely a near term headwind. [Mark Minervini]

POWELL: "Will likely require restrictive policy for some time" [investing.com]

[JFR]

ES daily. Down through the Pivot. 5th day straddling the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. Down, from R1, through the Pivot, through S1, and through S2.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Finding some support at 4107.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

Relative calm right now. Long or short, no matter; day trade and scalp.

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is DOWN.
We hit the lower Turn Zone on Monday and bounced.
Presently, we have a positive NYMO divergence with price hitting new lows while NYMO is comfortably above the NYMO low.
Perhaps NYMO will drop next week to cure this divergence. Otherwise, there may be a rally on deck once price pins a local low.

Price almost tagged the 200MA at the 8/16 high and now appears to be playing a possible move to the middle keltner band.
I suspect today's cliff dive collected stops below Wednesday's lows. Now let's see what happens.
There are two open gaps below that are in reach.
In general though, gaps are fairly balanced above and below right now. Hmmm...

The upper keltner band continues to rise. For me, bulls need to tag this to reclaim the bias.

I am flat. Long runners were stopped out Sunday night.
I should be short runners now with some banked profits, but I went to the beach instead this week.

[JFR]

MOS. Materials. Chemicals. Incorporated in 2004. Headquarters in Tampa, Florida.

Price/Earnings at 7.08. Price has been moving up since mid July. Technical view: Price is pushing the outside of the Bollinger envelope.

Not recommending. Just sharing information for potential swing trades.

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida. -- Yahoo Finance

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Testing beneath 4107.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:18 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/08 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

I'm watching whether a 3 push down can be made here which if indeed then we finally have some bottom patterns.

[jademann]

VIX 24-25 needs to hold. I dont think it will hold tomorrow. If it doesnt VIX will hit minimum 30 ish.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VI ... 0599455137
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX& ... 1309525406


"Today Powell was clearly setting the expectation for a 75bp hike. He used words like "forcefully" and "until the job is done."
After a general market run up into a down trending 200-day line, an aggressive Fed is likely a near term headwind.
"Will likely require restrictive policy for some time"

Dont fight the FED QT

[JFR]

ES and NYSE Tick 1 minute.

ES in a tight range. NYSE Tick mostly beneath zero, during the descent.

Back later ...

[Al_Dente]

HEAT MAP intraday
https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=

[jademann]

Can Johnnys mom afford $1000 for a new Nvidia video card and more for a phone, or will she need to put food on the table instead? Assuming she can afford the gas to get to work..

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Tight trading range, between support at 4100 and resistance at the EMA 20.

[JFR]

Dow 30. Every stock in the red.

[Cobra]

Still watching for possible 3 push down.

[JFR]

Alternatives.

Downers: IAU IYR SPYG SPYV and USO a bit

Uppers, a bit: TLT UUP

Flat: DBC

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Testing beneath support.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes. Price action.

Making a move down.