10/19/2022 Market Recap

[Cobra]

I cannot see from the chart up or down so I'm neutral here. Break the major trend line (blue line) is the very first step toward a bottom so, say, bulls have made some progresses recently. If you'd like to know more, read here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/trading-reversals/, in short, the break is part of a reversal pattern.

[Cobra]

Range day, the breakdown did fail but I didn't wait long enough. It'd be mostly a guess in a range day anyway.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5407&p=308924#p308924 (guess the coming breakdown would fail here)
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5407&p=308934#p308934 (changed the mind, thought the breakdown was for real which was wrong)

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

[JFR]

SPY 1 minute. Point and Figure.

A quiet day on the market. On a candlestick chart, a doji.

Price objective: 372.62. A self-fulfilling prophecy, as with support, resistance, EMAs, etc. Sometimes of value, especially as magnets.

Just in my opinion.

[Serenity]

ULTA, AA, WDFC ( WD-40) and TSLA down after hour. AA report was not too bad. Waiting for TSLA earning report. Let's see if history is right, stocks always go up during election month. We have almost 3 more weeks to go.

[JFR]

SPY daily, candlesticks. A doji.

On a swing trade basis, no bias for this trader. Day trades only on the S&P 500.

[jademann]

I have a question regarding the recommendations for stocks and bonds percentages for different ages. 50 50 etc

The only bond I follow is TLT and it is down enormously. Only $96 today with more to come.
Does that mean that people over 60 have lost enormously on their bond positions after being told they should switch to bonds for safety?!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQD?p=L ... c=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BND?p=B ... c=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT?p=T ... c=fin-srch

Clearly bonds are risky and suck!

[Cobra]

I have a question regarding the recommendations for stocks and bonds percentages for different ages. 50 50 etc

The only bond I follow is TLT and it is down enormously. Only $96 today with more to come.
Does that mean that people over 60 have lost enormously on their bond positions after being told they should switch to bonds for safety?!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LQD?p=L ... c=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BND?p=B ... c=fin-srch
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT?p=T ... c=fin-srch

Clearly bonds are risky and suck!

According to the John Murphy: Bond stock reversed relationship only exists in low inflation environment. In high inflation environment bond and stock move together.

Honestly I don't know how funds should allocate their portfolio since bond is no longer safe. The traditional way is certain percentage of fixed income and certain percentage of equities, just like you said. I mean I wanted ask the same question as well

That said, I believe most retirement funds hold lots of bond so when bond prices go too low, Fed will have to intervene like England did, so bond price won't go low forever I believe.

By the way, if bond is no longer safe, which one is safe? GIC?

[jademann]

Cobra, thanks for reply. I think people are losing their pensions right now, just when prices are rising due to inflation. So a double whammy.
It was the recommendation that people have more in lower risk bonds as they get older which is concerning.

Being in cash is safest right now it appears.
My biggest holding is property and that will probably be next for the chop.

Rates could reach as high as 5.1% or 6.6%