06/17/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 5 weeks in a row, the next week has 43% chances to close up, 69% chances to make a higher high. So more up the next week.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Positives:

EMAs 20 50 100 all up, in the right order, and widening.

Price pushing the outside of the Bollinger envelope, as it almost goes parabolic.

Many marubozu candlesticks on the way up.

Increased volume.

Long buildup in ranges before the move up.

MACD and Histogram bullish.

Sto bullish.

Negatives: What's not to like?

Driven by Tech, not much breadth.

Climbing the wall of worry. The bubble could burst at any time.

DIA QQQ and SPY all good, but IWM is stuck beneath resistance.

The boom in June is a bit suspect. But the money is there, ready to buy.

Conclusion: All systems Go for this trader, the bias is bullish. As daytrades and scalps on ES and SPY, NQ and QQQ, DIA and YM. No swing trades on these for this trader. When the bubble bursts, and there is a pullback, no worries, just get ready for the next move up.

[Al_Dente]

[Al_Dente]

6/17/23
The S&P 7, also known as NVDA AAPL TSLA MSFT GOOGL META and AMZN, is now up roughly 60% YTD. These 7 tech stocks now represent ~30% of the entire S&P.
Meanwhile, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 are now up just 3% YTD.
All together, the S&P 500 is up 15% YTD.
[The Kobeissi Letter]

[Al_Dente]

WEEKLY chart.
Last year, at the Jan 2022 high, QQQ gave us the gift of a negative divergence (red) with SPY.
This year, that's what I'm Waiting for Godot

[Al_Dente]

This overextended thing is not new.
Last year QQQ fell from it's nosebleed highs (black).
This year, as we all know, it's gunning for nosebleeds again.
Fall it will, likely when we least expect it.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Speaking of a fall, here is some doomer porn from twitter-

He says the SPY was reconstructed using historical prices because it was created in the 1950's.

Please remember 1929 was primarily caused by the Federal Reserve feeding greed with easy credit, not saying history will repeat but as Mr. Samuel Clemmons noted in a prior century "it sure rhymes a lot".

[te_fern]

Before the long weekend is over, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Fed Speakers.jpeg (56.35 KiB) Viewed 863 times

Be prepared!

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Market is bullish and very overbought, with that said, dip will be bought. Friday was another bearish reversal bar but one day doesn't make a trend. need to see new swing low on a daily to say the relief rally pull back may come down to mid BB-ish.
Internals are improving, the consolidation phase will not start until we can see the $NYMO is back in red at the minimum.

Bull market starts? yes if you use 20% mark from the bottom, as you can see, Bears 20% mark from the top made a good S/R level, I will see the same on Bulls 20% mark off the bottom as a key level for R/S also.

Intraday: Friday closed with negative price action, down Friday should continue into (Monday) Tuesday. again, bears need to see new swing low at the minimum to say top may hold. keep it simple. Peace!

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

The futures market is open.

Good up day on Thursday.

Now pulling back.

Through R1, through the Pivot, almost to S1, down to 4443, where it finds some support.