10/10/2011 Intraday Watering

[uempel]

GS weekend report stated that equities are fairly valued for worst case, which reads kind of bullish. But monthly chart showing BB13/1 and a long term center line look as though SPX is at resistance. I don't believe that this wild upmove has much more push this week.

[heavenskrow]

Things are unfolding as I had hoped.

JBTFD until we hit the 80 weekly SMA at around 1210. Then start scaling into shorts once we bust above the weekly 80 SMA and keep adding shorts all the way to 1250.

If markets continue to bust higher, then begin to cover shorts at 1270 and start going long (this is doubtful to happen though, but if it does, this is the plan).

This is the super simple plan I will be following.

still agree with u

[KENA]

Looks like we got a double top and some consolidation and now maybe a move dn.( Wishful thinking) It will be good for my trapped shorts.

[cougar]

UPRO 5 min with +/-1SD Regression Channel.
Sill strong...I do not see any reason to "over-trade" here...

From an old trader I heard this anecdote:

While giving an interview during the late 1930-s, W.D. Gann was asked:
“Which is the most frequent mistake that intelligent traders unknowingly make?”
“Overtrading!” came immediately Gann’s answer.
“Why do they do it?“
“They get overconfident and trade ambiguous setups”.

[L_T]

Wow good info Al_Dente. On Friday I picked up a single Nov 36 put on FCX because it looked like it was exhausting it's current move up on a daily time frame. Obviously it hasn't worked out for me today but I did it more to "play the game" with you guys. This stuff is much more interesting with skin in the game huh? Anyway I like your info as I am also looking for FCX to dip so I can pick some up for my long-term retirement account. That stock has bright days ahead once it's troubles and the economy turn around. In 5 years people will with they had bought FCX in the $30-something range IMHO.

PAGING MICHELLE ma belle, everyone else please move along

Had weekend research FCX 4 u; seems trivial and dated now, but here is cut/paste anyway:
Global strikes continue: Indonesia, Chile (#1 world producer), Peru (#2 mine). Chile is China’s primary copper supplier, strike forced Chile to default on contract, can’t deliver to China until at least next year. Chinese smelters low on inventory, are reported buying London spot. EVERYTHING HINGES ON CHINA. IMF reduced estimate of China growth to only ONLY +9.5% this yr, and +9% nxt yr, even after factoring in predicted global “slowdown.”

ANALYSTS: Ned Davis: Neutral… Argus Research: Buy
Credit Suisse: Outperform, FCX their top metal pick, buy the dips ! (more Suisse pages if u need them; sorry, schwab won’t give me URLs on research) http://screencast.com/t/KVCrNTgyQaP AND http://screencast.com/t/1eiPUP58
S&P: 4 star buy (out of 5), also rated their most undervalued (also more pages here if u need) http://screencast.com/t/QMCudms2

Schwab’s Market Edge Second Opinion® Weekly TA: Avoid the stock [their lowest rating]. But “NOT” a short sale candidate. Buy stop 43.10
BEARISH: broke double bottom P&F chart formation last week, volume pattern indicates distribution, bear macd and rs, chart pattern strong downwtrend, falling 50dma daily moving average, falling 200dma.
BULLISH: none.
[PS: the others, above, are analyst kool-aid (IMF too), schwab second opinion is rigid-format TA technical analysis, with no chit-chat]
Please confirm u have access 2 all this research yrself, and I don’t need 2 do jing screenshot ???

Many thanks to you for this info. No, I don't have access to it.

[uempel]

Heaven and Tart, SPX has not yet crossed 55 and you're already ordering your new FFs or Californias...

[EvilTrader]

I see a P-Bar 15 minutes ago @5min chart, down to 118,34.

[channel]

GS weekend report stated that equities are fairly valued for worst case, which reads kind of bullish. But monthly chart showing BB13/1 and a long term center line look as though SPX is at resistance. I don't believe that this wild upmove has much more push this week.

SPX19.png

Thank you for your postings. Very informative.

[heavenskrow]

Heaven and Tart, SPX has not yet crossed 55 and you're already ordering your new FFs or Californias...

well im not necessarily bullish. im only shorting bonds. in fact im still bearish biased.
and the hourly signals look ready to roll over for most indicies, in which im ready to take the profits.

[BullTart]

still agree with u

Cool- if the plan works profits should be very good and we should rejoice with a toast. Problem is, the less people who know, the better. So keep it on the DL. Having it on Cobra's board is problematic to begin with, but it's a fast moving daily thread and things get lost quickly.

[waverider]

UPRO 5 min with +/-1SD Regression Channel.
Sill strong...I do not see any reason to "over-trade" here...

From an old trader I heard this anecdote:

While giving an interview during the late 1930-s, W.D. Gann was asked:
“Which is the most frequent mistake that intelligent traders unknowingly make?”
“Overtrading!” came immediately Gann’s answer.
“Why do they do it?“
“They get overconfident and trade ambiguous setups”.

Fantastic quote, well said.

[alvian33]

yes, now I see a p-bar on tos as well, cobra do you agree?

[HK88]

If UUP keeps falling like this (or does not reverse), we easily see a test of 1220ish soon IMHO. But first, let us see how we close today...

[spuderik]

A move to the lower 1100s (1132 is now 50% retrace) could set up a really clean short-term inverse H&S pattern which could eventually catapult the market well past today's high levels. That would be a nice setup for the bulls in the medium term, but it would require a painful move lower in the coming days.

Will today be like 08/29 and 09/07 and close near highs, or will it be like 09/27 and stage a massive late day reversal...

[Cobra]

A little phantom bar, hopefully it's not the target today.

[BullTart]

Heaven and Tart, SPX has not yet crossed 55 and you're already ordering your new FFs or Californias...

Haven't placed the order yet, still all in cash. But I will JBTFD when the dip does come. I could be wrong, but for now, the odds favor (in my view) that a daily cycle and intermediate cycle low is in.

If we get a left translated cycle here, then I will be forced to re-assess the plan and consider moving my shorting plans to be executed sooner. But until I see that happening, I'll stick to the analysis and clear my head of what I *think* the market should do, which is crash and burn given the fundamental nightmare unfolding before our eyes.

Thanks for the feedback - it keeps me on my feet and I need to be nimble in case the market shows me something else. Refuse to get married to any single plan.

Cheers.

[Cobra]

yes, now I see a p-bar on tos as well, cobra do you agree?

Yes, I saw that too.

[uempel]

Close up of the long term monthly SPX shown 20 min ago, notice the Fib retracement at 1190..

[heavenskrow]

if 30 year bonds break below 138.22 decisively, bond bears have a little more room to run

[ddd]

we are pretty much done for the day, I think.

2%+ rally for euro is a stretch, although it could mean more continuation after some consolidation.

2% - 3% move for equities in a day is not too shabby. Should be more tomorrow.