05/13/2025 Live Update

[Cobra]

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3 push up so a pullback is due soon?

[JFR]

ES daily.

A doji so far today. No progress.

The trendline is up.

Breaking out above 5840.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

In a trading range between 5836 and 5876.

At the top of the range.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

An hour ago it broke out of a range over 5855.

It shot up, and then pulled back. Erratic behaviour. Dangerous for traders.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/befor ... =investing

A cautionary message ...

Excerpts ...

Investors are jumping the gun in declaring that the stock market will now leap to new all-time highs.

Despite the U.S. stock market’s huge rally on Monday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP +4.35%
is still more than 7% below its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +2.81% and the S&P 500 SPX +3.26%
remain in bear markets and are both 5% below their respective highs.

Why Monday’s surge may be a bear-market rally was pointed out on Monday morning by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He wrote that “nearly two-thirds of all bear markets since WWII started with double-digit declines that recovered to within 2% or higher of the 200-day moving average only to reverse course and dive once again to set an even lower low.”

Explosive rallies serve to keep hope alive, luring unsuspecting investors back into the market, often just before the market begins a new leg down. That’s why big rallies are more common in bear markets than bullish ones.

Be careful out there.

Bad news bear? Ha ha. Maybe. Not really. But for this trader a shorter time frame, day trading, is preferable. Play the charts. Trying to figure out the fundamentals and their influence on the stock market might cause major confusion. For example shocking tariffs should cause price increases and a stock market decline (and eventually a slowdown in the economy). But stocks seem to be defying gravity. And price rises are barely showing up yet.

Re safety ... There is uncertainty everywhere but gold, GLD, is chopping around, after nice gains in February, March and April.

In my opinion ...

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Testing resistance. Trying for a breakout.

Back later ...

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:22 am
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Maybe a pullback here first which likely would be bought later. Keeps charging up with no pullback then it's very bullish.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:06 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

5916 or so is supposed to be the major Gamma inflection point today. Supposedly JP Morgan massive hedged fund has major calls in that area.

[Cobra]

Breakout of the blue line should be more likely but there're chances the breakout wouldn't hold forming a 3 push up. Let's see.

[Cobra]

Now it's a clear cup with handle pattern therefore breakout is more likely and good chances the breakout is for real.

[BullBear52x]

Charts speak, in a trading world, if you are too early or too late you are wrong.
Trump scare or cheers depends on which side you are on.

A daily trend following, dips will be bought.

Individual trade not buying in , no bulls market without this group are in, they are normally late but why rush?

A swing setup: dips will be bought.

Intraday: new swing high, it is bullish bias, we are very overbought short term atm. rising wedge warning. but dips will be bought.

[Cobra]

Pullback here then it could be a 3 push up aka rising wedge. Should be still another leg up at least a lower high even it is a 3 push up.

[BullBear52x]

See SPY, there should be a day or two pull back? will see when my reversal tracker show up once it's here.

CCI will be a tell how bad the selling going to be if it heading back down below mid line. I am on summer time off still, and will check in and out here and there when I need gas money. trade well, Peace!

[Cobra]

So it's the 3 push up and here's what usually would happen thereafter.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:31 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:48 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

[Cobra]

Hmm, double top? No time though. Usually this kind of day should close near the high, strange.