10/12/2011 Intraday Watering

[pablorynx]

I love trading intraday but sometimes there are periods of time where the safest trade is to go with trend.
I observe R2K lagging the market, NDX lagging. Low volumes, advance-decline ratios failing to run past recent highs.
But I am watching bonds right now and there is something going on where the 10yr is looking really really toppy. and you really need to ask yourself, where is that money going to go if it flees bonds.

Just a thought, but if you were scared to death of equities when bonds offered effectively a negative return would you chase equities after a 13% move? My guess is the money will flow to cash pushing up the US dollar.

Typically, I would agree with you. But money has been moving to bonds and bills for the last two months. The bond market is no longer focusing on 'preservation of capital' but on return on capital. I agree with the dollar call, but I think that will be more of a forex/repatriation/relative growth rate flow rather than a risk-on/risk-off flow. I think you hit the nail on the head. Would you chase after a 13% move? Only if you can make the argument that there is another 10-15% move higher in the cards. The market has the feel of late 1998 (even looks like it on some analogues) and to some extent of 2009 as well (I hesitate to make this comparision, but elements of the fracturing within the vol market are similar, so are elements of cash trading liquidity). No one could believe the market would dare to rally higher.

[Al_Dente]

remarkable, spy above R3, I don’t have any higher pivot? where is gravity?

[99er]

Paging Tabby...

RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_9022.html

It may be time to start the car; looks like surf's up!

[coralla]

Still shy of Cobra's target.

[agnosia]

i am staying long /es until we hit 1214.5

[buyorsell]

BullBear52x,

I also lost on the short side, but I did have some profits from the long side.
I don't have much insight, but I do like insight from
Cobra, for his technical analysis
Heavenskrow, for his analysis on the bond market

Cheers!

[BullBear52x]

Man I wonder how many bears are licking their wounds still.
Been holding TMV from last week's bear trap, and its paying off very nice.
I hate to rub it in, but damn I LOVE when good analysis works.

There were 11 bears shorting at average of 119ish yesterday alone. today couple shorting at 121ish.
the rest in hibernation.

[Tabby]

Paging Tabby...

RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_9022.html

It may be time to start the car; looks like surf's up!

I have been waxing my board, 3 layers. I am going green with no car, only surfing waves.
Thanks again for heads up.

[Unique]

Whos' ready for the last 2 hour crash ??

Interesting times we are in...

[BullBear52x]

BullBear52x,

I also lost on the short side, but I did have some profits from the long side.
I don't have much insight, but I do like insight from
Cobra, for his technical analysis
Heavenskrow, for his analysis on the bond market

Cheers!

When a permabulls/permabears start bragging or insulting the other side, that is the pivot sign you can look back I post my entry to the penny so maybe it bother some people who think good trader never lose a hand

[HappyFriday]

Whos' ready for the last 2 hour crash ??

Interesting times we are in...

Bull mode just turns on, flying higher ! Shorts be ware !

[jaijailyc]

Man I wonder how many bears are licking their wounds still.
Been holding TMV from last week's bear trap, and its paying off very nice.
I hate to rub it in, but damn I LOVE when good analysis works.

There were 11 bears shorting at average of 119ish yesterday alone. today couple shorting at 121ish.
the rest in hibernation.

I actually covered my short yesterday @ 119.63 for a small profit in after hours last night.

I went short again a little earlier. Not sure exact level cause I am at work.. 1216.7 on S&P not sure SPY lvl

[Al_Dente]

I see H&S top on 10 yr treasuries, then broke neckline
I cant ignore that bull signal, until someone can provide a better link/look
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1

[agnosia]

guys this is 1998. not 2008. take a look at the charts and compare spx from those years. if i were a bear i would be very scared ... an analog is we squeeze higher to 1230 break through then pull back to retest the neckline. be careful out there....

[buyorsell]

BullBear52x,

You're one of my favor contributors, too.
Here is my only trade today:
sold SPY Oct 14 123 Call @0.52

[Mr. BachNut]

13% move and we don't even get a retracement. something really off or this is short term peak slow stoch have been overbought for 2 days, cho over 200,000 and macd over bought for 2 days. Bulls are crazy

I agree, and yet recall saying the same thing in the other direction as the waterfall decline was unfolding in early August.

[heavenskrow]

BullBear52x,

I also lost on the short side, but I did have some profits from the long side.
I don't have much insight, but I do like insight from
Cobra, for his technical analysis
Heavenskrow, for his analysis on the bond market

Cheers!

When a permabulls/permabears start bragging or insulting the other side, that is the pivot sign you can look back I post my entry to the penny so maybe it bother some people who think good trader never lose a hand

im not a permabull/bear, in fact I rode TMF all the way to the top during the crash and then now im shoritng bonds by playing TMV.
-but yes i have to admit, ego is VERy bad for a trader...thats why i make it up in my daily analysis by thinking "what if"

I warned the bears last week that they were going to be destroyed because they didnt admit it was a bear trap

[Michelle]

remarkable, spy above R3, I don’t have any higher pivot? where is gravity?

[BullBear52x]

Man I wonder how many bears are licking their wounds still.
Been holding TMV from last week's bear trap, and its paying off very nice.
I hate to rub it in, but damn I LOVE when good analysis works.

There were 11 bears shorting at average of 119ish yesterday alone. today couple shorting at 121ish.
the rest in hibernation.

I actually covered my short yesterday @ 119.63 for a small profit in after hours last night.

I went short again a little earlier. Not sure exact level cause I am at work.. 1216.7 on S&P not sure SPY lvl

the reason I asked for entries I just want to see how other's view in comparison to my view. thanks for the number good luck.

[Unique]

Whos' ready for the last 2 hour crash ??

Interesting times we are in...

Bull mode just turns on, flying higher ! Shorts be ware !

AAPL diving already. I only trade AAPL, but I hang around here to see SPY.