06/28/2025 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 77% chances to make a higher high.

So more up.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Hard to tell at this point how far down we go. Just depends if that recent swing low was enough. I think it wasn't, the correction too shallow. I think better odds are for a plunge below that level. Either way we are probably looking for SPY in the 6,300 by early July for the seasonal good by and return to positive action in October.

Mag 7 aren't exactly burning it up with earnings. Waiting for the moment of clarity when they figure out how to moniterize those AI investments. NVIDA is feeling the effect of large numbers They just can not duplicate the growth rate of the last couple of years. Apple is in a world of long term pain. All seven are big companies but the problem is the astronomical P/E ratios given there reduced rates of growth. And they are 1/3 of the market.

BLS did their final revisions for past job numbers. We are pretty much at recession levels. Housing market is finally rolling over. The wall of worry is large. If the MAG 7 continue to slow, if the consumer has hit the wall and interest rates stay up it could be a long summer.

But hey, enjoy the summer weather and hit the ground running on Monday!

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Price moved above the all-time high of 609.59 from February on Thursday,

Presently with a new all-time high of 616.39.

Strong move up from the lows of April, and breaking out of the wide trading range which began in May.

Th EMAs are all up, and in the right order.

Five bullish candles in a row, since the bounce off the EMA 20.

Price is pushing the top edge of the Bollinger.

Blue skies above.

My bias is up, with caution.

There is much uncertainty, tariffs, wars, flip-flop decisions, economic concerns, budget concerns.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Wayne Whaley posted on twitter
(Whaley Breath Thrust guy)

So history saying the Elliott wave pullback is not yet, or if it does happen it will be quick.

Next week is essentially a three day week. Following week will have a slow start. Most of the big decision makers will be at their places in the Hamptons. Not sure where the Miami and Huston crowd go. Guessing out on their yachts.

[BullBear52x]

"It is what it is department" Is it the chart, the trading strategy, or the politic that slow us down and not performing our best? What changed in the US? don't let this chart derange your performance.

big picture: market is breaking out, bullish, and overbought. Bulls or Bears, draw the line and go with it.

Swing setup: in a buy zone, find excuse to buy until it leaves the box, one way or the other.

Intraday: let the Fibo leads, it is what it is...keep it simple, stick to what work. trade well. Peace!

[BullBear52x]

Trading is 80% Psychology

[te_fern]

Before the weekend close, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377