08/16/2025 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 76% chances to make a higher high.

So more up.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

The Fibs are all solid with this count. If we continue to drop on Monday it holds together unless the bottom falls out. This seems to be a more or less consensus count and of course the issue is we are moving up towards the end of several impulses, so higher highs then a significant drop.

Our fearless Fed Chair has the Friday afternoon slot for his Jackson Hole speech. Then the September FOMC meeting, so a couple of opportunities for the Fed to trigger a 5% pullback are coming up.

[JFR]

SPY daily

Strong trend up since May.

The EMAs are up and in the right order.

Price is pushing the outside of the Bollinger envelope.

At an all-time high.

My bias is up.

Caution is advised; it is a high-wire act, climbing the wall of worry.

Three days flat.

Heavy lifting needed, but that has been there all along.

The institutions need a place to park their money, and, imo, the market is not at an irrational high, nor is it irrationally over-priced.

Could it pullback? Yes, of course.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[BullBear52x]

"It is what it is department" range trade, can you handle the range trade as a trader, that is the question? about .5% of risk on either side. simple trading to come. Peace!