10/19/2011 Intraday Watering

[Dow Trader]

Here comes the first test for YM 11460 - 11440 ( 1213 - 1211 for ES ) support area for bulls today

i'm a buyer at 1213 but 5 min ES vwap sits above it slightly so it'll either hit that and bounce before filling me or maybe it'll wait a little longer before testing.

Bulls need to defend this area or we go to below yesturday's low , this is very important for the bulls today to hold, they may go below it as a fake breakdown so lets wait and see ( but I still think we will have a boring day while we are betwee 1230- 1213 )
For bears, the today's resistance area 1224.50 - 1228.50 in ES

[MrMiyagi]

Here come the bulls.

[jarbo456]

i was just going to say it was starting to feel like the two (since the market opened) breakdown attempts failed, so according to cobra's law, it should be the bulls turn to try and push up.

[simpletrader]

The way I see it, aapl will try to filled the gap, could be at least half of it. So the tech and the market will go higher, speculation at this point. sit side way.

[99er]

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/copper_19.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/crude_19.html

30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/30y_19.html

[99er]

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/gold_19.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/silver_19.html

[Dow Trader]

I would expect to see a " buy stops " to test yesturday's high for spy and one tick above 122.78 to be a big order buy stop at 123.52
no sell stops showed yet to be recognized clearly

[Cobra]

nothing to say, a slow day. Generally consolidation above support or under resistance is good for bulls.

[Mr. BachNut]

yesterday's action has changed my thesis.

Old thesis was for a good correction/rally retrace to be followed by a second push up to make an attempt on the 200 day MA.
New thesis is for a consolidation/chop fest to work off over-bought conditions followed by a second push up.
I was looking for a low between SPY 117-119 (Max Pain - 2) but now I think around Max Pain (119) may be the floor.

My technical rationale is based partly on the chart and partly on month end reality.
Performance through 10/31 has impact on fund manager bonuses as well as hedge fund redemption notices for year-end.
As of September 30, a lot of funds and firms were down considerably. If they have been long and strong since then, they may be up now or at least not bad.
There is a powerful incentive for them to defend this market and perhaps put in a push up to the finish line to protect their pay, career or firm as the case may be.
This is speculative I know, but the tape seems to be aligning with this notion.

I am net long and buying dips into next week. Given overboughtness and max pain, there should be some kind of dip on the way to OpEx.
Also, as pure guess, I can envision a rally in the financials being used to gun the S&P in the next push up. So, I am watching the action there for clues.

[cougar]

Somebody mentioned yesterday SQNM, which I am also following. It could bounce right here, but if it falls lower, a bounce at 4.45 would be even more interesting.

[Al_Dente]

smn squeeze FAIL….typ squeeze FAIL

[seekingknowledge]

this is the reason why i wait.

Ditto! Profitable traders are patient and disciplined. Hardest thing to learn! I wait, too. No confirming bears until the moving averages (10/20/50) start crossing and we take out a past major support area. Got in the other day when all the averages confirmed bearish, but a major support area was underneath. I had to jump ship with small gain when I could see 'em coming after me.

[99er]

RUT
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_19.html

[soku]

me no p-bar fan, but i guess 1230 is a legitimate one. if eu deal, we will get there, if not, we may head lower. tape reading shows 1210-1215 as strong trading bottom. i guess the market is expecting news today.

[uempel]

A breakout at 1225 is a good long that needs a very tight stoploss...

[heavenskrow]

[stucap]

me no p-bar fan, but i guess 1230 is a legitimate one. if eu deal, we will get there, if not, we may head lower. tape reading shows 1210-1215 as strong trading bottom. i guess the market is expecting news today.

looks like it. went down, couldn't even get to the bottom vwap on 5 min ES and now in 15 minutes, it has blasted through the upper threshold! i'm so frustrated.

[BullBear52x]

BB52x
u in that TYP elevator?

yes, I am.

[Unique]

The way I see it, aapl will try to filled the gap, could be at least half of it. So the tech and the market will go higher, speculation at this point. sit side way.

There's two gaps, 388 and 422. Would be pretty amazed if it fills the top gap..short term is still down.

[jarbo456]

market is working hard to get those buy stops triggered. really, really hard. i'm not seeing much confirmation in the euro/usd or /dx. at these SPY and /ES levels we should be at least revisiting the euro highs from around this morning at 3856 and or the /dx lows around 76.86. same for TLT which is off it's morning lows of 114.22. vix also off it's lows of 31.91 from 9am this morning.

bulls are bullying...