11/11/2011 Intraday Watering

[99er]

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/copper_11.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/crude_11.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/30y_11.html

[zipper]

http://derivativesfishing.blogspot.com
This guy is a freak but I have to hand it too him.
I use his work to filter my own..

[soku]

I'm surprised at MAKO today it may take some more consideration befor I long.Lets see. Right now time to take a break and workout Back later.

as i mentioned y'day, i will consider it monday.
i have some timing indicator which works well on mako. it suggests further down today and a possible turnaround monday.

[tdo722]

Here is one of my incredibly busy charts. Please excuse. The important things to note are that the prior high at 1277 was turned at the 78.6% retrace of the prior swing low, and now we are testing the 78.6% retrace (1267) of the next prior swing, at the same time that we back testing a trend line from the 10/4 low. Support on the 5 week decelerated TL (or neckline of a possible complex H&S pattern?) Taking a gamble for the next 60 min. swing low with a short at 1267, although the high of this swing up may not be in yet. Stop above 1277.

love your T/A but still better than 50/50. I'd rate your about 65% chance winning rate.

[zipper]

Same with Cobra's work use it to filter my own when all are lined up. just press the trigger.

[hdenandy]

This seems so obvious - my 7th sense tells me it might be a bear trap

11.png

Uempel - please forgive my ignorance.
Do you mean a 'trap for the bears', or a 'trap by the bears' ?

TIA

LOL! If you live in the mountains (like me) and you go to the only store in the village, and say that you want to buy a “bear trap”…what do you think you get?
Actually , this scenario is impossible now, since bear traps have been outlawed in the Rocky Mountains, but not on Wall Street!

Thanks for your reply Cougar.
So a trap 'for' the bears then.
No bears near me here in Lancashire, England I'm afraid. Or rather, glad !

[jarbo456]

btw, everyone catch what happened with the larger bear flag again? that's right...a HUGE break to the upside.

[KENA]

I'm surprised at MAKO today it may take some more consideration befor I long.Lets see. Right now time to take a break and workout Back later.

as i mentioned y'day, i will consider it monday.
i have some timing indicator which works well on mako. it suggests further down today and a possible turnaround monday.

Hay, thanks Soku..Let me know what you come up with.Now I really have to go.

[taggard]

Hi yet another newish reader. Cobra you have created a very good learning situation for a lot of newer and some older traders. (imo) The strong point of the site is your honesty and willingness to respond to readers. As such i hope you don't mind my bringing up a quote that i feel was very important and is getting very little play both in a specific sense (the quote itself) and in a general sense (in terms of psych/physical/mental interactions).

8-26-11 3.19pm

. . glad someone paid attention that indeed TA works. News doesn't matter. The reason I'm saying this is someone in my Chinese forum are complaining again that TA doesn't work. Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

On this site as well as most others there is epic focus on such things as "targets" "news" and "statistics" and very little focus on the inner trader. This is is too bad and causes a lot of suffering for many new and older traders.

The reason is TA can be very simple--and thus not worthy of too much mental effort--for example Cobra has made use of Al Brook's stuff. While "reading price charts bar by bar" is dense--actually the ideas are quite simple once you get them down to one sentence concepts. An example "on a strong trend day use any possible entry". Yet while simple enough to say--they can be very difficult to act on in real time.

Further generally TA is sort of a conceptual overlay--a method of organizing price action so the viewer/trader doesn't get "lost". We often forget that the map is not the territory.

Cobra has drawn the distinction between his longer term outlooks and what happens when the market opens--the out looks are analytical and the intraday are reactive to what price action is doing. The longer i am at this stuff the less the analytic seems important (although it is a lot of fun). Esp given the change in market conditions over the last 20 years.

Further even TA methods are less important than many appear to think--since many different styles employed by serious hard working guys--generate roughly the same results in terms of return. (and amusingly sometimes do so using mirror interpretations of the same data over time) So not only is TA reasonably simple once the core ideas are grasped--but the actual school of thought is not an issue either as generally confirmed by results.

All this leaves what is going on inside the traders mind (as well as the entity surrounding the mind the body). The problem for us is noticing this and finding a way to improve since our habits are effectively invisible to us. Our strengths are also our weaknesses and far weirder our weakness can be--if noted--our strengths. Our habits (not just TA style but emotional/physical underling entities) are what we don't see unless we look. We may see "mistakes" but often not the actual reason for the mistakes.

Along with all the comments on the "news" "targets" "lines on charts" etc it would be interesting (to me) to see more discussion of how to access and improve what Cobra has indicated above as a major issue in trading--mental emotional states.

Cobra thank you again for the serious effort you are making here--and sorry this post was so long.

[99er]

nikman

The Butterfly and the Bat are cousins to the Gartley Pattern. How this can benefit your trading is to prepare you for a directional change: when you see a Gartley forming, prepare for a quick turn or possible extensions (usually to 61.8% or 78.6%) to pinpoint the turn. Use the Fib retracement tool to see where trend lines might cross. Size alone doesn't necessarily invalidate the Gartley; the pattern simply morphs into a cousin of some sort.

[jarbo456]

no stopping the EUR today...or is it no supporting the dollar? either way, the eur just keeps making new highs.

if anyone has traded FX for an extended period of time, you guys would understand how odd it is that there's so much FX action at noon on a friday afternoon.

then again, if you've trade it for awhile, you'd also probably remember more than a few times that the FX market has made outsized moves on semi-holiday days (low volume)...and there are many in the FX market because it's always open.

we'll see if this is the end of it...there's neg d on the 5 minute charts and an impending bearish macd cross.

[SB73]

There has been a lower low than the prior close at some point of the veterans day session 20 straight times. This streak will be broken unless we get a massive intraday reversal.

http://www.tradingtheodds.com/2011/11/v ... -intraday/

[uempel]

Just for fun: you guys might have heard of Fuzzy Logic, but have you heard of Fuzzy Ellispses? Well, here they are in a pattern of 4, and they fit perfectly. As to why this works? - I don't know, I don't know the physical explanation. I just know that they work and show S/R.

[fehro]

something I came across the other day, interesting very short term trading help for free!
http://algofutures.com/

[soku]

nikman

The Butterfly and the Bat and cousins to the Gartley Pattern. How this can benefit your trading is to prepare you for a directional change: when you see a Gartley forming, prepare for a quick turn or possible extensions (usually to 61.8% or 78.6%) to pinpoint the turn. Use the Fib retracement tool to see where trend lines might cross. Size alone doesn't necessarily invalidate the Gartley; the pattern simply morphs into a cousin of some sort.

bat on es. 30m and 1h. can u tell it to drop?

[zipper]

I think the reality of whats happened today will kick in Monday and this market might just clip again, euro short 13785..

[nikman]

nikman

The Butterfly and the Bat and cousins to the Gartley Pattern. How this can benefit your trading is to prepare you for a directional change: when you see a Gartley forming, prepare for a quick turn or possible extensions (usually to 61.8% or 78.6%) to pinpoint the turn. Use the Fib retracement tool to see where trend lines might cross. Size alone doesn't necessarily invalidate the Gartley; the pattern simply morphs into a cousin of some sort.

Thanks 99er.

[Cobra]

this kind of consolidation is bullish.

[MrMiyagi]

this kind of consolidation is bullish.

That's what I've been thinking past 20 minutes. We will see after lunch; 1300 Eastern time?
Meanwhile, I have 6 inches of snow to shovel.

[Cobra]

Hi yet another newish reader. Cobra you have created a very good learning situation for a lot of newer and some older traders. (imo) The strong point of the site is your honesty and willingness to respond to readers. As such i hope you don't mind my bringing up a quote that i feel was very important and is getting very little play both in a specific sense (the quote itself) and in a general sense (in terms of psych/physical/mental interactions).

8-26-11 3.19pm

. . glad someone paid attention that indeed TA works. News doesn't matter. The reason I'm saying this is someone in my Chinese forum are complaining again that TA doesn't work. Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

On this site as well as most others there is epic focus on such things as "targets" "news" and "statistics" and very little focus on the inner trader. This is is too bad and causes a lot of suffering for many new and older traders.

The reason is TA can be very simple--and thus not worthy of too much mental effort--for example Cobra has made use of Al Brook's stuff. While "reading price charts bar by bar" is dense--actually the ideas are quite simple once you get them down to one sentence concepts. An example "on a strong trend day use any possible entry". Yet while simple enough to say--they can be very difficult to act on in real time.

Further generally TA is sort of a conceptual overlay--a method of organizing price action so the viewer/trader doesn't get "lost". We often forget that the map is not the territory.

Cobra has drawn the distinction between his longer term outlooks and what happens when the market opens--the out looks are analytical and the intraday are reactive to what price action is doing. The longer i am at this stuff the less the analytic seems important (although it is a lot of fun). Esp given the change in market conditions over the last 20 years.

Further even TA methods are less important than many appear to think--since many different styles employed by serious hard working guys--generate roughly the same results in terms of return. (and amusingly sometimes do so using mirror interpretations of the same data over time) So not only is TA reasonably simple once the core ideas are grasped--but the actual school of thought is not an issue either as generally confirmed by results.

All this leaves what is going on inside the traders mind (as well as the entity surrounding the mind the body). The problem for us is noticing this and finding a way to improve since our habits are effectively invisible to us. Our strengths are also our weaknesses and far weirder our weakness can be--if noted--our strengths. Our habits (not just TA style but emotional/physical underling entities) are what we don't see unless we look. We may see "mistakes" but often not the actual reason for the mistakes.

Along with all the comments on the "news" "targets" "lines on charts" etc it would be interesting (to me) to see more discussion of how to access and improve what Cobra has indicated above as a major issue in trading--mental emotional states.

Cobra thank you again for the serious effort you are making here--and sorry this post was so long.

Thanks, and welcome aboard! I'm really glad you did pay attention to what I posted.

And I agree with you. Emotion is a very important fact in trading and rarely we talk about here and I believe somewhere else as well.