11/11/2011 Intraday Watering

[pady]

One day for run from 123 to 127 ( wave 1 to 3 ). We will do a wave 4 also similarly. Maybe the top comes on Monday morning.

[Cobra]

Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

On this site as well as most others there is epic focus on such things as "targets" "news" and "statistics" and very little focus on the inner trader. This is is too bad and causes a lot of suffering for many new and older traders.

Thanks, and welcome aboard! I'm really glad you did pay attention to what I posted.

And I agree with you. Emotion is a very important fact in trading and rarely we talk about here and I believe somewhere else as well.

"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas helped me with my perspective. It is all about the mental game.

have you tried keeping a record of your mental states on each trade? after 30-90 trades patterns sort of leap out. i try to track this on excel in one long text line and then track quality of entries and exits. really long stuff goes in a journal along with data on quality and timing of entries and exits. then i save each day on a 5 min chart--this allows going back over time and checking perceptions and actions.

Thanks for the tip.

I do have record on my emotion on the exit side (maybe I need on entry side as well), where I see hundreds of records of one word "Scared" (therefore much premature exit), so as the result, when I have some trades I'm really scared, I just walk away from the computer for awhile, that would save me some good trades. Still I have lots of "scared" words there. The more I'm scared, the better trade it turns out to be.

[Rhee]

Just for fun: you guys might have heard of Fuzzy Logic, but have you heard of Fuzzy Ellispses? Well, here they are in a pattern of 4, and they fit perfectly. As to why this works? - I don't know, I don't know the physical explanation. I just know that they work and show S/R.

88.png

Uempel, you're either a genius... or the Easter Bunny.
Nonetheless, your charts are always so insightful.
...And pastel.

[Cobra]

H3 long on EMA20. I'm a little disappointed in bulls now, this pullback is larger than I thought.

[Buckethead]

Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

On this site as well as most others there is epic focus on such things as "targets" "news" and "statistics" and very little focus on the inner trader. This is is too bad and causes a lot of suffering for many new and older traders.

Thanks, and welcome aboard! I'm really glad you did pay attention to what I posted.

And I agree with you. Emotion is a very important fact in trading and rarely we talk about here and I believe somewhere else as well.

"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas helped me with my perspective. It is all about the mental game.

have you tried keeping a record of your mental states on each trade? after 30-90 trades patterns sort of leap out. i try to track this on excel in one long text line and then track quality of entries and exits. really long stuff goes in a journal along with data on quality and timing of entries and exits. then i save each day on a 5 min chart--this allows going back over time and checking perceptions and actions.

Thanks for the tip.

I do have record on my emotion on the exit side (maybe I need on entry side as well), where I see hundreds of records of one word "Scared" (therefore much premature exit), so as the result, when I have some trades I'm really scared, I just walk away from the computer for awhile, that would save me some good trades. Still I have lots of "scared" words there. The more I'm scared, the better trade it turns out to be.

Very good point. There is old saying that all great trades take heat. If you are in a position and you are not concerned and feeling too confident, it will most likely fail.

[pady]

Current impulse numbers -

1 = 1227-1246
2 = 1246-1235
3 = 1235-1267 ( 1.62*W1 )
4 = 1267-1255 ( 38% retrace. 50% is 1251 )
5 = 1251-1273 ( or 1285 or 1303 )

[knock]

H3 long on EMA20. I'm a little disappointed in bulls now, this pullback is larger than I thought.

Master cobra, any chance this is a bull flag? Thanks.

[Petsamo]

Anyone like POT? It's been draggin.

[Cobra]

H3 long on EMA20. I'm a little disappointed in bulls now, this pullback is larger than I thought.

Master cobra, any chance this is a bull flag? Thanks.

it's a bull flag, no doubt.

the problem is everything has exceptions. you never know when.

[uempel]

Update:

[Cobra]

Update:

45.png

this market is really interesting. when you bet on the long side, don't think, just buy and if you have a predetermined target, well, not good enough, just double that target. when you bet on the short side, be scary very very scary, and run as soon as you can, and if you have a predetermined target, well, cut it half, and still be prepared to run as soon as possible.

[Al_Dente]

Yes, "Trading in the Zone" is good.. I’ll tell you my solution: When I watch CNBC or Bloomberg, during trading hours, in front of the TV I put a thick corrugated glass screen and I have handy a bunch of small sand-filled balloons. Destination: “talking heads”! Cools me alright!

Cougar, u are funny today (bear trap rockies etc), u must be flat, BTW do u usually have fingernails-on-chalkboard volume on or off CNBC/Bloom?

Pre market Betty Bloomberg said the Mac Rib is the new commodities indicator. Bberg reporters then started eating mac ribs for “research”.
Oy, here’s what I reverted to….and if you don’t like this one… you just don’t deserve ears… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mVW8tgGY_w

[KENA]

Time for a rest.Just thought I would check the world mkts and all mkts north,South,east,west are all green don't think I have ever seen all green befor.We have been saved of if you are a contrarion we may be in for a let dn.Lets see how it works.

[taggard]

Well, everyone knows I'm purely TA and it does work. Tradings on the other hand is different because besides TA, there's a more difficult part which is EMOTION. I still cannot put my emotion away and that's why I'm still poor.

On this site as well as most others there is epic focus on such things as "targets" "news" and "statistics" and very little focus on the inner trader. This is is too bad and causes a lot of suffering for many new and older traders.

Thanks, and welcome aboard! I'm really glad you did pay attention to what I posted.

And I agree with you. Emotion is a very important fact in trading and rarely we talk about here and I believe somewhere else as well.

"Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas helped me with my perspective. It is all about the mental game.

have you tried keeping a record of your mental states on each trade? after 30-90 trades patterns sort of leap out. i try to track this on excel in one long text line and then track quality of entries and exits. really long stuff goes in a journal along with data on quality and timing of entries and exits. then i save each day on a 5 min chart--this allows going back over time and checking perceptions and actions.

Thanks for the tip.

I do have record on my emotion on the exit side (maybe I need on entry side as well), where I see hundreds of records of one word "Scared" (therefore much premature exit), so as the result, when I have some trades I'm really scared, I just walk away from the computer for awhile, that would save me some good trades. Still I have lots of "scared" words there. The more I'm scared, the better trade it turns out to be.

i also have very decent entries (aprox 75% very decent) but exits are too soon (aprox 60% of the time). i can see two ways to consider scared one is to just ignore it and take the trades--you have to be 75-85% right--hence not taking the trade is not right. For a beginner (anyone under 70% win rate) this maybe not as clear.

the other is to carefully consider what scared means to you personally. there are other situations that can show up as fear. for example "fatigue makes cowards of us all" you work very hard and seemingly long hours. it's nice for us. but in my case at 58 i need to conserve energy i run about 70 hours a week of that about 35 or so on trading (the rest training and study). if i screw up and overdo it--i get weaker
physically and mentally. this shows up as being too cautious or (in rare cases) being too aggressive. in either case it's clear my focus is off (as it is today allowing me to write this). you also seem to trade and post seamlessly--i admire this as i cannot really do more than one thing at a time.

so the question is do we ask about the nature of scared--or do we ignore the nature and act--or do we do both at different times. i think the latter--there is an underlying reason we are concerned--it's maybe not good to obsess yet just ignoring completely does not seem best either.

finally overcoming scared maybe works in small chunks (eg for the next 5 trades i will just hold longer period) this allows us to err in the inverse direction and gain a new perspective on the issue. the problem is sometimes early exits are right. thus trying ideas in a small controlled batch allows us to isolate trades by quality of "fear" (justified or not) and then perhaps we can separate out by degree and quality of feeling. Scared keeps us in the game--so it can't be totally wrong. But it also holds us back.

[Cobra]

good H3 long, let's see if any breakout here.

[pady]

this market is really interesting. when you bet on the long side, don't think, just buy and if you have a predetermined target, well, not good enough, just double that target. when you bet on the short side, be scary very very scary, and run as soon as you can, and if you have a predetermined target, well, cut it half, and still be prepared to run as soon as possible.

To me that makes a lot of sense. Retail mostly are bulls. If you take the average guy on the street, he invests in stocks ( long ) or is in cash or in mutual funds ( which are all long ). Any new money folks bring into their retirement accounts are being used to average down at best case or is on the sideline.

[stingrey]

an interesting chart. just sharing what i see

Nice, SOKU!

2nd that.

Louise Yamada ( excellent technincal analyst ) commented about the SAME pattern you see here, and expects that 2012 could play out as 2008 did?? hmmmmm

________________

Only significant difference is the timing...November vs May (sell and go away time)...will be interesting to see how it plays out....

[jarbo456]

Update:

45.png

this market is really interesting. when you bet on the long side, don't think, just buy and if you have a predetermined target, well, not good enough, just double that target. when you bet on the short side, be scary very very scary, and run as soon as you can, and if you have a predetermined target, well, cut it half, and still be prepared to run as soon as possible.

so true cobra.

once it's probability.

twice and the market is being weird.

three times could be seasonality.

four times, you start thinking market manipulation.

5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, etc. etc. times later...i'm realizing i'm just being an idiot. cut the short side winners as soon as possible. jump on the long side and ride it until it slows down (long side tends to show weakness before reversing, short side just gaps up 200 points the next day).

if you're 50/50 (long or short indecision) go long.

if you're 40/60 go long.

if you're 30/70 go long with a tight stop.

if you're 20/80 or better, you MIGHT have a 1 day chance to make some money on the short side.

someone gave a statistic that there would be a lower low 88% of the time with the kind of selling price action we just had...i'm still waiting, but that 88% chance is sure looking tough to make happen.

pretty frustrating that, but the reality is, when in doubt, buy. which is a weird concept because it used to be, when in doubt sell now, and ask questions later.

[BlackThought]

Update:

45.png

this market is really interesting. when you bet on the long side, don't think, just buy and if you have a predetermined target, well, not good enough, just double that target. when you bet on the short side, be scary very very scary, and run as soon as you can, and if you have a predetermined target, well, cut it half, and still be prepared to run as soon as possible.

that's the whole point, it means the crash is near. they want retail traders to be too scared to play the short side and are conditioning them not to short the market and always go long.

[Cobra]

i also have very decent entries (aprox 75% very decent) but exits are too soon (aprox 60% of the time). i can see two ways to consider scared one is to just ignore it and take the trades--you have to be 75-85% right--hence not taking the trade is not right. For a beginner (anyone under 70% win rate) this maybe not as clear.

the other is to carefully consider what scared means to you personally. there are other situations that can show up as fear. for example "fatigue makes cowards of us all" you work very hard and seemingly long hours. it's nice for us. but in my case at 58 i need to conserve energy i run about 70 hours a week of that about 35 or so on trading (the rest training and study). if i screw up and overdo it--i get weaker
physically and mentally. this shows up as being too cautious or (in rare cases) being too aggressive. in either case it's clear my focus is off (as it is today allowing me to write this). you also seem to trade and post seamlessly--i admire this as i cannot really do more than one thing at a time.

so the question is do we ask about the nature of scared--or do we ignore the nature and act--or do we do both at different times. i think the latter--there is an underlying reason we are concerned--it's maybe not good to obsess yet just ignoring completely does not seem best either.

finally overcoming scared maybe works in small chunks (eg for the next 5 trades i will just hold longer period) this allows us to err in the inverse direction and gain a new perspective on the issue. the problem is sometimes early exits are right. thus trying ideas in a small controlled batch allows us to isolate trades by quality of "fear" (justified or not) and then perhaps we can separate out by degree and quality of feeling. Scared keeps us in the game--so it can't be totally wrong. But it also holds us back.

Thanks, well said.