11/25/2011 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

Gap down below Wednesday's low, but it's a small gap (relative to all the gaps recently of course) so such a gap could be filled. Then we'll have to wait and see. Nothing to say on Global ES, no sign of bottom yet, given the steep losses we've had recently, NORMALLY the very first rebound is a sell. Just a reminder, the market closes at 1pm ET, it's a half day market. Enjoy your Thanksgiving black Friday!

Oh, target reached.

[Me XMan]

Jumped in SPY 116

[ultramarine]

Good morning. Great call on today's gap down Cobra.

A bounce seems likely here for a couple of days as the USDX approaches resistance near the 80 level.

[Cobra]

Good morning. Great call on today's gap down Cobra.

A bounce seems likely here for a couple of days as the USDX approaches resistance near the 80 level.

thanks, not great call, I thought it would be sharp sharp gap down (so that I do something naughty which I always said we shouldn't do, unless you're smarter. I'm no smarter, but I sometimes pretend to be ).

[99er]

Good Morning.

So honey...it's Black Friday. Off to the races?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/1.html

Walmart?

[99er]

Honey...
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd_25.html

I'd rather ski.

[Al_Dente]

ATTENTION ALL PEOPLE
Today, Freaky Friday, is dedicated to Holiday and Christmas Carols.
Please feel free to contribute any musical links to Kwanzaa, Craciun, Channukah, Presepio, Shab e Cheleh, Buddha’s Birthday, Winter Solstice, Chinese New Year, Russian Orthodox, Kito, or any other holiday you may celebrate. We respect all religions and non-religions on this board. “Happy Holidays” to you all.

“Without music, life would be an error.” [Friedrich Nietzsche, Philosopher]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFfxIA952Bw

[99er]

Much mountain left?
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_25.html

Maybe not.

[99er]

One thing for sure...
AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/audjpy_25.html

We ain't skiing uphill.

TGIF and GLTA.

[Al_Dente]

BANK STUDY as of yest close.
The first chart is American based banks, showing that KRE (regional banks, with the least Euro-zone exposure) is still the strongest in our weak banking sector. Note BAC made a double-bottom low ($5.13) while the others are slightly above their lows. KRE made a lower low, but is still comfortably above its Oct low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p= ... =247570156

The second chart shows Euro-zone banks, including DB Deutsche Bank Germany, CS Credit Suisse Switzerland, STD Banco Santander Spain, GLE.EU Society Generale France, and HBC for HSBC Holdings London. Note that Deutsche Bank (like XLF) is still above its September low; the others (except Soc Gen) have made new lows.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&p=D ... =249460800

PS: This is a very narrow view; a much broader representation of banks should be charted.
PPS: Analyst kool-aid (copyright schwab) says that DB Deutsche Bank (squid) has Core Tier 1 capital ratio < 9% (per last stress test), and “may need to” raise more capital, in other words their fundamentals suck. But DB gets A/AA ratings for country risk, soverign risk, and banking risk, with a BB for currency risk. Schwab rates Deutsche “Market Perform” = “C”…. Reuters Research= “Outperform”… S&P = three stars out of five. Plus, DB just (11/23) expanded their ponzi, pardon, insurance division, whereby they leech more funds from the masses while rejecting all “dubious claims.” (aka The Insurance Business Model).
All the banks are on an Al Dente (oversold) short-term sell signal at the moment.
Finally, my favorite quote of the week:
“Yeah, it's Thanksgiving but much of Europe is a turkey overstuffed with marked-to-unicorn debt. Good luck swallowing that.” [99er, 11/21]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MkVuFOM ... re=related

[cougar]

GM cobra! yes, nice call!
I shall probably change from "short bias" to neutral soon after open.

[jimme]

going to ski for a little... and then jump right back on the lift!

[ClarkW]

Never want to see someone make a bad trade but admittedly makes me feel a little better even Master Cobra frontruns EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE. The mental side of trading is BY FAR the hardest piece for me!

Good morning. Great call on today's gap down Cobra.

A bounce seems likely here for a couple of days as the USDX approaches resistance near the 80 level.

thanks, not great call, I thought it would be sharp sharp gap down (so that I do something naughty which I always said we shouldn't do, unless you're smarter. I'm no smarter, but I sometimes pretend to be ).

[cougar]

The Qs also ready fo a bounce...

[milan1126]

Happy Thanksgiving,Cobra. You did have a great call, the gap is filled.

[rpccharts]

ES session range estimate is 1148-1160. The weekly bar trend is downward. The minimum downside target is 1130. There is a good chance that the October 4 low will be broken also.

[Petsamo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MkVuFOM ... re=related

Gotta luv those legs! in HD too

[Me XMan]

We could see Fed intervention next week on Eurozone crisis.
Get ready for a correction and then more selling resume IMO.

[Cobra]

the open.

[dcurban1]

Reading Material, November 25, 2011 - Debt, Debt, and More Debt

http://atruecontrarian.blogspot.com/201 ... -debt.html

Covered my short. Stores were packed last night which should be positive for the markets next week but pull Holiday shopping forward which means less sales as we get close to Christmas.