11/30/2011 Intraday Watering

[quientuves]

in 25min. eurpean markets close. What do you think? Are they going to close and take the profit or maintain looking for more tomorrow?

[PolarBull]

for those doubting TA...i spent all thanksgiving reading several books debunking the idea of TA to get a better assessment of its value...

Jarbo, could I get the title of the books that you're reading? Thanks!

[Petsamo]

USO is plunging for some reason

[99er]

Hey central bankers...

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx_9773.html

Fix this.

[tdo722]

i'm out of my SPY and /ES longs. holding long EUR and my long /CL. will look for a pull back to enter long SPY and /ES again or else a topping pattern to short.

SPY looks like it might be targeting the gap resistance around 124.94 from 11/10-11/11.

for those doubting TA...i spent all thanksgiving reading several books debunking the idea of TA to get a better assessment of its value after getting clobbered pretty good all year since August. the whipsaw, headline driven rallies and drops, and the fact that so much of the movement was happening in the after market hours was frustrating me to no end, and losing me a small fortune (fortune in my opinion). i'm not quite sure what i think about TA at this point - and i've used TA for the past 8-10 years i've been trading.

fundamentally the global economy is weaker than it was before, arguing for lower asset prices. but this is hardly a "trade-able" assessment.

technically, bearish setups have been failing at an inordinate rate. there are some strong arguments that technical analysis lends little to no statistical value - "luck" is unaffected by technical analysis. either you're lucky, or you're not.

what tools are we left to "trade" with without the above?

i think we ALL know 401k'ers who are realizing that "buy and hold" may NOT be the best approach to wealth management. with that being said, i am starting to become a much firmer believer in "slow finance". hot hedge fund returns, much like my own trading returns are being diminished by a market that seems irrationally driven in opposing directions.

frustrating and certainly confusing and causing doubt. this isn't the greatest mindset to be trading with, but i can't stick my head in the sand and pretend that i don't have some serious doubts with all of this. so i thought i'd just share that with ya'll out there.

Thank you for sharing.

[uempel]

Update:

[noob]

Hey everyone. This is my first post. I became a member recently and really appreciate Cobra's work and everyone's contributions. I am watching stochastics and macd. Clearly the technicals yesterday were pointing lower and this caught everyone by surprise. I think this push may go to 1300+ but the entry point will not be easy as tomorrow could be a correction day before the next push up.

thoughts?

i'm wondering if Cobra will talk about a potential 7 day strong push up from an important bottom. it's starting to shape up and look like it. not that this is statistically meaningful, but the last two 7-day rule events, the red candlestick came on the 4th day.

Thanks that's significant!

[Me XMan]

Buy on the dip at EOD like yesterday?

in 25min. eurpean markets close. What do you think? Are they going to close and take the profit or maintain looking for more tomorrow?

[Petsamo]

for those doubting TA...i spent all thanksgiving reading several books debunking the idea of TA to get a better assessment of its value...

Jarbo, could I get the title of the books that you're reading? Thanks!

What is ignored by TA aficionados are the probabilities that certain TA setups will fail.

[CognitiveDissonance]

Oh my god. I am so happy I sold my 2000 shares SDS in the after hours market after I made $400 from it. I was not so sure even thought that 3 push up pattern and the huge negative divergence. hahhaha.. big smile on my face this morning.

good to hear!

Thank you. Now I sit and wait for a chance to ride the bull train. Any idea?

I think it's going to be a short trip, missed most of it yesterday and this morning. 1240 is big resistance and my EW buddy's target got hit at 1238. Wave 2 down will come soon, then wave 3 up will rock our world. I might actually go on margin for that one.

big boys using a lot of powder to push the market up today so I suspect it will continue to rally, maybe even tomorrow, but I'll be getting off soon, can't get too greedy. No way you'll catch me on this train EOD tomorrow. I'll see how friday shapes up and maybe hop on tvix for a bit.

[brokebybernacke2]

for sure, profit taking soon come, as we got already ihs target and 61.8 retrace hit, but this up strong,US dollar watch weakening, no gap fill soon imho, buy /rebuy next good dip for bull train, that my plan

[pezhead9000]

It's bananas!!

[Al_Dente]

So honey...is Europe sunk? http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/raft.html They've got a life raft.

99er: U are such an art aficionado …Evidence: artistic charts, Edvard Munch “The Scream” …cop pepper-spraying Magritte’s bowler-hats, then peper-spraying every known masterpiece; etc etc… Here’s another:
http://screencast.com/t/QwO1Sw5TlM

“I am seeking, I am striving, I am in it with all my heart.” [Vincent van Gogh]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dipFMJck ... re=related

Also, SPY [edit: daily Heikin Ashi]
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249501314

PS: jarbo THANK YOU for everything u posted today, all of it.

[CognitiveDissonance]

Update:

cc.png

So, trend change tomorrow? Today would make it a 3 day cycle up.

[Cobra]

Hey everyone. This is my first post. I became a member recently and really appreciate Cobra's work and everyone's contributions. I am watching stochastics and macd. Clearly the technicals yesterday were pointing lower and this caught everyone by surprise. I think this push may go to 1300+ but the entry point will not be easy as tomorrow could be a correction day before the next push up.

thoughts?

Thanks and welcome aboard!

[Unique]

Scalpers prepare to short 1239-1240. Acted as as support/resistance multiple times, check your 30min/60min charts . 78.6% fib retracement.

SHORT SHORT SHORT!

Make me proud bears..need a follow through...or else

[uempel]

To all those discussing the importance of TA. Good article in the FT today (I guess you'll also find it online), title is "A Wise Man knows One Thing - the Limits of his Knowledge". It's about Keynes (who was supersmart) and how he used his models. Apparently he was quite sceptical and knew that they are not infallible. Funny that it was in the paper today

[taggard]

Hey everyone. This is my first post. I became a member recently and really appreciate Cobra's work and everyone's contributions. I am watching stochastics and macd. Clearly the technicals yesterday were pointing lower and this caught everyone by surprise. I think this push may go to 1300+ but the entry point will not be easy as tomorrow could be a correction day before the next push up.

thoughts?

stochastics and macd can be useful but price action is the key thing. often people start by using stochastics but find (esp the stock math) that there is a real problem trusting them esp in the longer timeframes. also in a static market slo sto on a 15 or 60 min chart can be very tight--but in a trending market they will keep you out. macd esp the histogram and esp when used looking for divergences (so histogram lower price higher or the inverse) good.

but in the end watching the price very carefully in maybe 2 time frames during the day will keep you pointed in the correct direction. i spent a long time with indicators and found a lot of flaws--at the very least choosing how when and what form to use them is important. just my experince.

[uempel]

Update:

cc.png

So, trend change tomorrow? Today would make it a 3 day cycle up.

So far it's more or less a zigzag.

[cougar]

TVIX made a nice AB = CD. Now it is at a critical level.
"To buy... or not to buy?"

“So foul and fair a day I have not seen” [Macbeth, Shakespeare]
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249026794

Right!